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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Kohl'S Corporation (XNYS:KSS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
KSS
Name:
KOHL'S CORPORATION (XNYS:KSS)
Sector:
219.00M
Industry:
Department Stores
CEO:
Ms. Michelle Gass
Total Employees:
35,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 0.00% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF KOHL'S CORPORATION(KSS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DEPARTMENT STORES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
29.47
One Month Price Target:
$29.74
Six Month Price Target :
$31.06
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$32.65
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$29.24
Price Upper limit ($) :
$29.73
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$26.52
This week:
$22.88
This month :
$16.29
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.50B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
116.64M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
36.02%
-20.49%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$43.15
$36.90
$15.79
$22.04
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$34.86
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$33.53
$24.06
$25.41
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
KSS
Sharpe Ratio:
0.83%
Comparison:
KSS, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 99.59% higher than the industry
& is -63.47% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
KSS
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.25%
Monthly returns:
0.99%
Yearly returns:
7.02%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 69.46% above industry average
Classification:
KSS, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.25
Statistical test of Returns:
KSS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.89%
Weekly Volatility:
10.94%
Monthly Volatility:
21.88%
Yearly Volatility:
75.79%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.72%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -44.40% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.00%
Weekly VaR:
-22.36%
Monthly VaR:
-44.71%
How Much Can the price of
KSS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-39%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$17.98
This translates to price declining to:
$4.42
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
KSS is a 215.57% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 170.35% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -0.95% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
KSS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.61
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.937
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.326
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.847
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.029
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.927
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.565
Beta is 2.63% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.935
Beta is -16.99% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
16.36%
Sustainable growth rate is 60.65% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.023
Alpha is -76.00% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -143% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
KSS
Equity cost of capital:
0.142
Equity cost of capital is -13.73% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.46%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.16%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.29%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.29%
WACC is 2.88% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$165.13
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.67
Annual revenue growth rate is -31.42% below industry average
EPS:
$6.49
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
9.12%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -182.76% lower than the Department Stores industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$7.11
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -68.17%
Equity growth rate per share is -4.82% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$51.46
EBITDA per share
$19.86
Valuation Analysis Today of
KSS
P/E Ratio:
5.75
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
15.35
P/E ratio is -62.56% lower than main peers & is -30.07% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $53.35
KSS is -44.76% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $41.44
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $19.01
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.18
Price to sales ratio is -45.65% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.67
Price to free cash flow: 4.14
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-120.58%
Net income growth rate is -37.87% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 4.16%
Dividend yeild: 5.09%
Previous Dividend: $0.50
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.50
Previous Dividend: $1.50
Expected next dividend best case: $0.71
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.29
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.42
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 5.80%
Expected next dividend payment date: 20/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/06/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 22/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/08/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-07--$0.50
2021-12-07--$0.25
2021-06-08--$0.25
2022-03-15--$0.50
2021-09-07--$0.25
2021-03-16--$0.25
Dividend growth rate is -107.79% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
117.30%
Net debt to equity ratio:
91.15%
Debt to assets ratio:
40.86%
Net debt to assets ratio:
31.75%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -50.57% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
8.87
Interest coverage ratio is 165.13% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
92.27%
Annual debt growth is 8% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 15.21%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.474
Statistical significance of correlation:
KSS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.49
Stock price is -3.12% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.49
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.044
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.126
Kurtosis
8.119
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.92
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
KSS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
126%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
7.73%
Operating profit margin is 195.80% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
126%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.62%
Effective tax rate is -65.78% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
18.33%
Return on equity (ROE) is 58.01% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
6.39%
Return on assets (ROA) is 103.64% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
1.77
Current ratio is 46.22% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-29.6
Cash conversion cycle is -152.15% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 18.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.28%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
550.3K
Each employee generates 37% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
66.2K
Each employee generates 48% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
26.8K
Each employee generates 63% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
6.3K
Each employee generates -755% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
271.3K
Each employee generates -755% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
KSS
THE GAP, INC. (XNYS:GPS)
HILTON GRAND VACATIONS INC. (XNYS:HGV)
YETI HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:YETI)
BOYD GAMING CORPORATION (XNYS:BYD)
SKECHERS U.S.A., INC. (XNYS:SKX)
HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. (XNYS:HOG)
MARRIOTT VACATIONS WORLDWIDE CORPORATION (XNYS:VAC)
GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING COMPANY (XNYS:GPK)
VIPSHOP HOLDINGS LIMITED (XNYS:VIPS)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�8%
Hold�42%
Sell�17%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/30/22
Revenue:
19.26B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
12.88B
6.38B
-
-
5.60B
-
420.00M
6.02B
-
261.00M
827.00M
2.32B
1.49B
938.00M
1.23B
290.00M
938.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
211.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 65000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
12.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 140000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
2.26B
Other Non-Cash Items:
246.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
278.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 59000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
5/1/21
2022
Q1
1.61B
-
1.61B
-
2.67B
919.00M
5.20B
9.05B
-
-
-
-
449.00M
9.49B
-
14.69B
1.38B
271.00M
-
-
1.29B
2.94B
6.00B
390.00M
6.63B
-
9.57B
4.00M
13.44B
-
- 8330000.00K
May 1, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
18.90B
5.12B
14.69B
-
6.27B
4.7B
-
2.00M
- 57000.00K
- 1077000.00K
-
- 68000.00K
- 39000.00K
301.00M
- 883000.00K
-
- 662000.00K
1.61B
2.27B
278.00M
- 59000.00K
219.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
KSS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$32.81
$64.00
$70.90
$78.56
$87.03