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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (XNYS:KNX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
KNX
Name:
KNIGHT-SWIFT TRANSPORTATION HOLDINGS INC. (XNYS:KNX)
Sector:
291.89M
Industry:
Trucking
CEO:
Mr. David Jackson
Total Employees:
27,400
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -98.15% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF KNIGHT-SWIFT TRANSPORTATION HOLDINGS INC.(KNX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND TRUCKING INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
50.3
One Month Price Target:
$50.65
Six Month Price Target :
$52.42
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$54.54
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$50.15
Price Upper limit ($) :
$50.51
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$48.17
This week:
$45.54
This month :
$40.78
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
7.87B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
160.67M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.76%
-9.63%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$60.17
$55.61
$40.43
$44.99
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$54.13
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$53.16
$46.46
$47.44
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
KNX
Sharpe Ratio:
2.61%
Comparison:
KNX, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -18.66% lower than the industry
& ratio is 14.33% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
KNX
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.32%
Monthly returns:
1.27%
Yearly returns:
31.49%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -51.71% below industry average
Classification:
KNX, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.61
Statistical test of Returns:
KNX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.09%
Weekly Volatility:
4.68%
Monthly Volatility:
9.35%
Yearly Volatility:
32.40%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.23%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -41.28% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.23%
Weekly VaR:
-9.46%
Monthly VaR:
-18.93%
How Much Can the price of
KNX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-65.56%
This translates to price declining to:
$42.25
This translates to price declining to:
$17.32
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
KNX is a 33.58% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 14.43% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -35.77% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
KNX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.25
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.987
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.396
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.061
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.568
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.59
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.359
Beta is -7.70% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.38
Beta is -9.10% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
10.95%
Sustainable growth rate is -51.28% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.035
Alpha is -81.68% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 220% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
KNX
Equity cost of capital:
0.117
Equity cost of capital is -6.83% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.93%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.32%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.04%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.04%
WACC is 0.71% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$41.09
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.23
Annual revenue growth rate is -74.46% below industry average
EPS:
$4.92
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
35.22%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -8.96% lower than the Trucking industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.29
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 58.44%
Equity growth rate per share is -54.31% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$9.80
EBITDA per share
$10.63
Valuation Analysis Today of
KNX
P/E Ratio:
9.4
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
17.86
P/E ratio is -47.38% lower than main peers & is -43.15% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $81.36
KNX is -38.17% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $51.58
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $12.12
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.22
Price to sales ratio is -93.31% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.23
Price to free cash flow: 170.54
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
89.12%
Net income growth rate is 1462.69% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 2.45%
Dividend yeild: 0.87%
Previous Dividend: $0.12
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.12
Previous Dividend: $0.44
Expected next dividend best case: $0.14
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.10
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.09
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 7.83%
Expected next dividend payment date: 26/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 27/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/10/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-09--$0.12
2021-12-02--$0.10
2021-06-03--$0.10
2022-03-03--$0.12
2021-09-02--$0.10
2021-03-04--$0.08
Dividend growth rate is -83.19% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
23.97%
Net debt to equity ratio:
24.35%
Debt to assets ratio:
14.73%
Net debt to assets ratio:
14.96%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -69.14% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
70.21
Interest coverage ratio is -52.11% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
139.77%
Annual debt growth is 78% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 8.37%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.568
Statistical significance of correlation:
KNX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.451
Stock price is 25.75% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.451
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.004
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.005
Kurtosis
4.796
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.336
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
KNX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
96%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
16.68%
Operating profit margin is -101.48% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
96%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.65%
Effective tax rate is 4.72% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
12.51%
Return on equity (ROE) is -24.96% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.68%
Return on assets (ROA) is 12.92% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
1.26
Current ratio is -69.91% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
39.2
Cash conversion cycle is 35.45% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
240.9K
Each employee generates -9% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
62.4K
Each employee generates 23% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
30.0K
Each employee generates 27% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
10.7K
Each employee generates 97% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
336.8K
Each employee generates 97% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
KNX
DTE ENERGY UNT (XNYS:DTP)
GXO LOGISTICS, INC. (XNYS:GXO)
TFI International Inc. (XNYS:TFII)
AQUA AMERICA UNT (XNYS:WTRU)
SITEONE LANDSCAPE SUPPLY, INC. (XNYS:SITE)
THE TORO COMPANY (XNYS:TTC)
AGCO CORPORATION (XNYS:AGCO)
OWENS CORNING (XNYS:OC)
ADVANCED DRAINAGE SYSTEMS, INC. (XNYS:WMS)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�17%
Hold�25%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
6.60B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
5.01B
1.60B
-
341.25M
341.25M
-
152.59M
493.83M
1.34M
24.33M
607.44M
1.71B
1.10B
821.94M
1.08B
254.73M
821.94M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
161.21M
Differed Income Tax :
4.25M
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
75.39M
Accounts Receivables:
- 28007.00K
Other Working Capital:
607.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
7.73M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
456.86M
Investments in PP&E:
- 164974.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 4372.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
242.86M
-
242.86M
961.11M
-
262.30M
1.47B
3.72B
3.52B
1.81B
-
-
175.02M
9.23B
-
10.70B
248.76M
267.97M
-
-
649.30M
1.17B
1.58B
492.39M
2.95B
-
4.11B
1.64M
2.21B
- 935.0K
4.36B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
5.50B
6.57B
10.69B
-
1.84B
1.6B
1.88M
57.28M
- 110187.00K
- 143843.00K
1.22M
- 144881.00K
- 20137.00K
- 15608.00K
- 323249.00K
-
23.42M
373.45M
350.02M
456.86M
- 164974.00K
291.89M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
KNX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$54.81
$86.13
$93.39
$101.26
$109.80