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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (XNYS:KNSL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
KNSL
Name:
KINSALE CAPITAL GROUP, INC. (XNYS:KNSL)
Sector:
121.23M
Industry:
Insurance�Property & Casualty
CEO:
Mr. Michael Kehoe
Total Employees:
375
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF KINSALE CAPITAL GROUP, INC.(KNSL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INSURANCE�PROPERTY & CASUALTY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
254.59
One Month Price Target:
$255.77
Six Month Price Target :
$261.68
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$268.78
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$253.82
Price Upper limit ($) :
$256.29
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$240.12
This week:
$222.24
This month :
$189.89
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.80B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
22.90M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.47%
-19.33%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$321.61
$290.09
$187.57
$219.09
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$279.83
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$273.10
$229.27
$236.08
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
KNSL
Sharpe Ratio:
6.10%
Comparison:
KNSL, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 341.22% higher than the industry
& ratio is 167.63% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
KNSL
Daily returns:
0.18%
Weekly returns:
0.92%
Monthly returns:
3.66%
Yearly returns:
10.43%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 321.46% above industry average
Classification:
KNSL, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.53
Statistical test of Returns:
KNSL has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.86%
Weekly Volatility:
6.39%
Monthly Volatility:
12.77%
Yearly Volatility:
44.25%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.73%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -39.48% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.68%
Weekly VaR:
-12.71%
Monthly VaR:
-25.41%
How Much Can the price of
KNSL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-88.04%
This translates to price declining to:
$202.74
This translates to price declining to:
$30.45
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
KNSL is a 79.38% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 53.67% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 18.62% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
KNSL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.83
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.672
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.95
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.329
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.878
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.888
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.16
Beta is -28.52% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.555
Beta is 49.41% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
21.61%
Sustainable growth rate is 87.51% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.351
Alpha is 910.85% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2235% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
KNSL
Equity cost of capital:
0.088
Equity cost of capital is 27.02% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.50%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$29.77
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
8.76
Annual revenue growth rate is 89.16% above the industry average
EPS:
$6.18
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
28.10%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 79.89% higher than the Insurance�Property & Casualty industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$18.48
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 57.54%
Equity growth rate per share is 27.24% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$8.32
Valuation Analysis Today of
KNSL
P/E Ratio:
40.86
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
106.25
P/E ratio is -61.55% lower than main peers & is 133.52% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $108.13
KNSL is 135.45% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $64.48
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $14.27
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
8.55
Price to sales ratio is 256.56% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
8.76
Price to free cash flow: 13.78
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
319.52%
Net income growth rate is -1194.78% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 1.94%
Dividend yeild: 0.19%
Previous Dividend: $0.13
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.13
Previous Dividend: $0.48
Expected next dividend best case: $0.14
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.12
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.10
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 5.29%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/12/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/09/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 13/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 31/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/11/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-27--$0.13
2021-11-26--$0.11
2021-05-26--$0.11
2022-03-01--$0.13
2021-08-30--$0.11
2021-02-25--$0.11
Dividend growth rate is -88.52% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
188.08%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-9.23%
Debt to assets ratio:
65.29%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-2.91%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -1.87% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.30%
Annual debt growth is -113% lower than industry average debt growth rate
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.595
Statistical significance of correlation:
KNSL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.6
Stock price is -0.82% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.6
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.013
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.021
Kurtosis
8.632
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.07
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
KNSL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
27.69%
Operating profit margin is -537.64% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
19.05%
Effective tax rate is -4.67% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
22.89%
Return on equity (ROE) is 181.18% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.21%
Return on assets (ROA) is 370.16% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.9x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 12.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.8M
Each employee generates 52% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
508.1K
Each employee generates 153% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
406.3K
Each employee generates 188% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
323.3K
Each employee generates 435% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
0.0K
Each employee generates 435% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
KNSL
GOOSEHEAD INSURANCE, INC. (XNAS:GSHD)
SLM CORPORATION (XNAS:SLMBP)
GOHEALTH, INC. (XNAS:GOCO)
FIRST HAWAIIAN, INC. (XNAS:FHB)
WINTRUST FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:WTFCM)
AMERIS BANCORP (XNAS:ABCB)
INVESTORS BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:ISBC)
SERVISFIRST BANCSHARES, INC. (XNYS:SFBS)
360 DigiTech, Inc. (XNAS:QFIN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�13%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
681.81M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
164.88M
-
-
-
-
-
-
26.02M
-
2.31M
190.54M
188.80M
152.37M
188.23M
35.86M
152.37M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
-
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
121.93M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
121.93M
Investments in PP&E:
- 703.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 227823.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
104.16M
1.46B
1.57B
215.68M
-
-
-
-
-
-
1.63B
-
-
-
2.11B
2.11B
24.99M
42.73M
-
-
-
67.72M
-
-
-
1.38B
1.45B
229.00K
414.76M
- 45805.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
493.58M
665.57M
2.11B
3.09B
42.73M
- 61431.0K
92.82M
-
- 135710.00K
-
-
-
- 2963.00K
- 138.00K
- 3101.00K
-
- 16882.00K
104.16M
121.04M
121.93M
- 703.00K
121.23M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
KNSL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$270.12
$484.73
$511.75
$540.27
$570.39