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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Kinetik Holdings Inc. (XNAS:KNTK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ALTM
Name:
KINETIK HOLDINGS INC. (XNAS:KNTK)
Sector:
205.13M
Industry:
Oil & Gas Midstream
CEO:
Mr. David Clay Bretches
Total Employees:
-
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF KINETIK HOLDINGS INC.(KNTK) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND OIL & GAS MIDSTREAM INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
36.08
One Month Price Target:
$36.66
Six Month Price Target :
$39.57
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$43.06
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$35.63
Price Upper limit ($) :
$36.75
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$29.39
This week:
$21.11
This month :
$6.14
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.87B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
135.00M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
204.49%
-27.29%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$67.12
$52.77
$5.04
$19.39
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$48.09
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$45.03
$24.03
$27.13
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ALTM
Sharpe Ratio:
3.20%
Comparison:
ALTM, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 11.77% higher than the industry
& ratio is 40.51% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ALTM
Daily returns:
0.30%
Weekly returns:
1.51%
Monthly returns:
6.06%
Yearly returns:
30.53%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 138.09% above industry average
Classification:
ALTM, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.36
Statistical test of Returns:
ALTM has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
9.18%
Weekly Volatility:
20.53%
Monthly Volatility:
41.06%
Yearly Volatility:
142.23%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.34%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -74.48% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-18.55%
Weekly VaR:
-41.49%
Monthly VaR:
-82.97%
How Much Can the price of
ALTM
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-70%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$10.86
This translates to price declining to:
$5.41
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ALTM is a 485.61% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 401.69% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 126.58% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ALTM
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.88
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.367
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.933
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-20.831
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.045
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.322
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.678
Beta is 71.51% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.441
Beta is 99.71% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.498
Alpha is 184.57% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 3172% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ALTM
Equity cost of capital:
0.229
Equity cost of capital is 75.59% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-165.49%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.44%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.13%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.13%
WACC is 72.69% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$1.19
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
5.38
Annual revenue growth rate is 163.15% above the industry average
EPS:
-
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$4.87
EBITDA per share
$0.92
Valuation Analysis Today of
ALTM
P/E Ratio:
30.62
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
83.44
P/E ratio is -63.30% lower than main peers & is 70.94% higher than the industry
-
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $30.16
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $26.24
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
30.33
Price to sales ratio is 993.59% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
5.38
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-5325.15%
Net income growth rate is 3011.00% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 144.86%
Dividend yeild: 16.63%
Previous Dividend: $1.50
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.50
Previous Dividend: $6.00
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $1.50
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 30/03/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 28/02/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 31/01/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 30/12/2021
Previous dividend record date: 30/11/2021
Previous dividend declaration date: 11/02/2021
Dividend History:
2021-11-29--$1.50
2021-05-27--$1.50
--$0.00
2021-08-26--$1.50
2021-02-25--$1.50
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-113.82%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-90.96%
Debt to assets ratio:
38.09%
Net debt to assets ratio:
30.44%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -45.12% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
13.24
Interest coverage ratio is 149.64% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
3.67%
Annual debt growth is 86% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in previous year: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.242
Statistical significance of correlation:
ALTM has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.464
Stock price is -47.86% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.464
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.013
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.072
Kurtosis
357.363
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
16.019
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ALTM
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
321%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
40.85%
Operating profit margin is 101.15% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
321%
Effective Tax Rate:
0.00%
Effective tax rate is -100.00% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-17.19%
Return on equity (ROE) is -130.78% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.75%
Return on assets (ROA) is 69.38% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
6.12
Current ratio is 255.78% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
32.4
Cash conversion cycle is -45.34% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
-
-
EBITDA generated per employee:
-
-
Profit generated per employee:
-
-
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
-
-
Assets/Capital per employee
-
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
ALTM
XOG
Brooge Energy Ltd (XNAS:BROG)
OASIS MIDSTREAM PARTNERS UNT (XNAS:OMP)
TELLURIAN INC. (XNYS:TELL)
DMC GLOBAL INC. (XNAS:BOOM)
PERMIAN RESOURCES CORPORATION (XNAS:PR)
NBLX
ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS UNT (XNAS:ARLP)
TORM PLC (XNAS:TRMD)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
12/31/21
Revenue:
160.62M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
33.75M
126.87M
-
14.18M
14.18M
-
46.63M
60.82M
3.00K
9.43M
16.20M
124.85M
65.61M
99.22M
99.22M
-
99.22M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
16.20M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 1057.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 3555.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 7428.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
95.35M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
209.72M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 28420.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/31/21
2021
FY
131.96M
-
131.96M
25.84M
2.96M
5.87M
166.63M
186.99M
-
-
1.36B
-
6.23M
1.56B
-
1.72B
-
-
10.89M
-
27.24M
27.24M
657.00M
135.34M
792.34M
-
819.59M
2.00K
- 577251.00K
-
-
December 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
94.56M
- 577249.00K
242.34M
-
657.00M
525.0M
-
37.20M
8.78M
-
-
-
- 143728.00K
33.00M
- 110728.00K
-
107.78M
131.96M
24.19M
209.72M
- 4588.00K
205.13M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ALTM
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$32.29
$38.54
$45.99
$54.89
$65.50