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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Kinder Morgan, Inc. (XNYS:KMI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
KMI
Name:
KINDER MORGAN, INC. (XNYS:KMI)
Sector:
677.00M
Industry:
Oil & Gas Midstream
CEO:
Mr. Steven Kean
Total Employees:
10,529
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 27.13% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF KINDER MORGAN, INC.(KMI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND OIL & GAS MIDSTREAM INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
18.22
One Month Price Target:
$18.31
Six Month Price Target :
$18.78
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$19.33
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$18.15
Price Upper limit ($) :
$18.3
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$17.29
This week:
$16.14
This month :
$14.06
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
40.25B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
2.26B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.77%
-21.04%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$22.54
$20.57
$13.90
$15.87
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$19.93
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$19.51
$16.51
$16.93
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
KMI
Sharpe Ratio:
0.32%
Comparison:
KMI, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -88.95% lower than the industry
& is -86.11% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
KMI
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.08%
Monthly returns:
0.33%
Yearly returns:
30.53%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -86.84% below industry average
Classification:
KMI, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.59
Statistical test of Returns:
KMI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.49%
Weekly Volatility:
5.58%
Monthly Volatility:
11.15%
Yearly Volatility:
38.63%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.11%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -55.40% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.10%
Weekly VaR:
-11.41%
Monthly VaR:
-22.83%
How Much Can the price of
KMI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-79.08%
This translates to price declining to:
$14.58
This translates to price declining to:
$3.81
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
KMI is a 61.13% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 38.04% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -38.46% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
KMI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.91
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.749
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.059
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.508
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.634
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.754
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.636
Beta is -44.46% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.441
Beta is -36.96% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.054
Alpha is -130.58% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -341% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
KMI
Equity cost of capital:
0.094
Equity cost of capital is -28.02% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.24%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$6.93
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.3
Annual revenue growth rate is -89.58% below industry average
EPS:
$0.45
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-6.69%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 644.39% higher than the Oil & Gas Midstream industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.22
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 34.61%
Equity growth rate per share is -1854.41% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$12.71
EBITDA per share
$2.20
Valuation Analysis Today of
KMI
P/E Ratio:
17.07
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
9.01
P/E ratio is 89.41% higher than main peers & is -4.72% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $8.06
KMI is 126.03% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $22.93
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $13.26
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.63
Price to sales ratio is -5.22% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.3
Price to free cash flow: 8.20
Price to free cash flow ratio is -20.32% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
8.38%
Net income growth rate is -104.90% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 59.12%
Dividend yeild: 5.97%
Previous Dividend: $0.28
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.28
Previous Dividend: $1.09
Expected next dividend best case: $0.29
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.27
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.26
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.08%
Expected next dividend payment date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/01/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 19/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 16/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/02/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 20/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-29--$0.28
2021-10-29--$0.27
2021-04-29--$0.27
2022-01-28--$0.27
2021-07-30--$0.27
2021-01-29--$0.26
Dividend growth rate is -99.98% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
93.93%
Net debt to equity ratio:
104.51%
Debt to assets ratio:
41.60%
Net debt to assets ratio:
46.28%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -40.07% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-3.33%
Annual debt growth is -269% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 7.86%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.601
Statistical significance of correlation:
KMI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.464
Stock price is 29.58% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.464
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.056
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.081
Kurtosis
15.831
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.014
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
KMI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
185%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
13.09%
Operating profit margin is -35.55% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
185%
Effective Tax Rate:
16.05%
Effective tax rate is -12.03% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
3.40%
Return on equity (ROE) is -93.91% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.51%
Return on assets (ROA) is -55.62% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
0.47
Current ratio is -72.65% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.5M
Each employee generates -76% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
473.1K
Each employee generates 36% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
99.0K
Each employee generates -136% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
64.3K
Each employee generates -85% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
6.3M
Each employee generates -85% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
KMI
SUNCOR ENERGY INC. (XNYS:SU)
PHILLIPS 66 (XNYS:PSX)
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION (XNYS:MPC)
VALERO ENERGY CORPORATION (XNYS:VLO)
DEVON ENERGY CORPORATION (XNYS:DVN)
MPLX COM UNT (XNYS:MPLX)
OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION (XNYS:OXY)
TC Energy Corporation (XNYS:TRP)
PIONEER NATURAL RESOURCES COMPANY (XNYS:PXD)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�25%
Hold�33%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
15.69B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
8.51B
7.18B
-
655.00M
655.00M
-
2.17B
2.83B
-
-
3.73B
4.98B
2.05B
1.04B
1.32B
212.00M
1.04B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
538.00M
Differed Income Tax :
190.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 330000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 51000.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 3417000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
19.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
1.08B
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
84.00M
-
84.00M
1.66B
591.00M
697.00M
3.03B
35.56B
19.91B
1.62B
7.55B
8.00M
1.46B
66.10B
-
69.14B
1.20B
3.32B
-
-
1.92B
6.45B
28.76B
2.22B
30.98B
-
37.43B
-
- 10544000.00K
- 674000.0K
41.84B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
12.02B
30.62B
68.05B
-
32.08B
32.0B
-
- 371000.00K
- 371000.00K
- 2453000.00K
-
-
- 616000.00K
1.56B
- 1512000.00K
-
- 799000.00K
348.00M
1.15B
1.08B
- 407000.00K
677.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
KMI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$14.82
$15.72
$16.68
$17.70
$18.78