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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Kimco Realty Corporation (XNYS:KIM) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
KIM
Name:
KIMCO REALTY CORPORATION (XNYS:KIM)
Sector:
194.55M
Industry:
REIT�Retail
CEO:
Mr. Conor Flynn
Total Employees:
606
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF KIMCO REALTY CORPORATION(KIM) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�RETAIL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
21.23
One Month Price Target:
$21.39
Six Month Price Target :
$22.21
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$23.19
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$21.12
Price Upper limit ($) :
$21.36
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$19.81
This week:
$18.06
This month :
$14.89
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
13.17B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
618.48M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
32.26%
-19.82%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$27.81
$24.79
$14.65
$17.67
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$23.81
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$23.17
$18.64
$19.29
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
KIM
Sharpe Ratio:
1.43%
Comparison:
KIM, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 38.00% higher than the industry
& is -37.12% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
KIM
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.28%
Monthly returns:
1.12%
Yearly returns:
8.74%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 53.47% above industry average
Classification:
KIM, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.51
Statistical test of Returns:
KIM has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.28%
Weekly Volatility:
7.34%
Monthly Volatility:
14.67%
Yearly Volatility:
50.83%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.13%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -65.66% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.68%
Weekly VaR:
-14.94%
Monthly VaR:
-29.88%
How Much Can the price of
KIM
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-26%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$15.76
This translates to price declining to:
$3.18
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
KIM is a 110.92% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 80.70% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 10.87% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
KIM
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.38
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.004
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.42
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.745
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.796
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.874
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.794
Beta is 73.28% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.101
Beta is 25.05% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
8.80%
Sustainable growth rate is 94.34% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.008
Alpha is -142.49% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 53% compared to market & is healthy
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
KIM
Equity cost of capital:
0.126
Equity cost of capital is 17.67% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.80%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.95%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.33%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.33%
WACC is 16.20% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$2.44
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.28
Annual revenue growth rate is -73.44% below industry average
EPS:
$1.58
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
25.99%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 1587.41% higher than the REIT�Retail industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.06
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -40.06%
Equity growth rate per share is 91.36% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$2.59
Valuation Analysis Today of
KIM
P/E Ratio:
17.68
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
32.24
P/E ratio is -45.15% lower than main peers & is -62.94% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $75.39
KIM is -71.84% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $24.67
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $7.12
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
8.7
Price to sales ratio is -9.37% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.28
Price to free cash flow: 20.04
Price to free cash flow ratio is 28.05% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
40.89%
Net income growth rate is -407.16% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 13.21%
Dividend yeild: 3.44%
Previous Dividend: $0.20
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.20
Previous Dividend: $0.73
Expected next dividend best case: $0.25
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.15
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.19
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.11%
Expected next dividend payment date: 21/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/07/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 23/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/09/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-08--$0.20
2021-12-08--$0.17
2021-06-08--$0.17
2022-03-09--$0.19
2021-09-08--$0.17
2021-03-09--$0.17
Dividend growth rate is -86.68% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
85.08%
Net debt to equity ratio:
68.56%
Debt to assets ratio:
45.37%
Net debt to assets ratio:
37.01%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -17.05% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.51
Interest coverage ratio is 150.63% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 100.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.586
Statistical significance of correlation:
KIM has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.511
Stock price is 14.58% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.511
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.063
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.12
Kurtosis
17.651
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.96
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
KIM
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
328%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
30.68%
Operating profit margin is -0.10% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
328%
Effective Tax Rate:
0.27%
Effective tax rate is -96.26% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.36%
Return on equity (ROE) is -20.05% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.05%
Return on assets (ROA) is 70.35% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.8x
Current Ratio:
0.1
Current ratio is -99.76% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
68.1
Cash conversion cycle is -67.74% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
2.5M
Each employee generates -34% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
2.6M
Each employee generates -17% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
1.5M
Each employee generates 22% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
321.0K
Each employee generates -43% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
0.0K
Each employee generates -43% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
KIM
W.P. CAREY INC. (XNYS:WPC)
EQUITY LIFESTYLE PROPERTIES, INC. (XNYS:ELS)
VNO-PM
MEDICAL PROPERTIES TRUST, INC. (XNYS:MPW)
AMERICAN HOMES 4 RENT (XNYS:AMH)
MAA-PI
IRON MOUNTAIN INCORPORATED (XNYS:IRM)
CAMDEN PROPERTY TRUST (XNYS:CPT)
HOST HOTELS & RESORTS, INC. (XNAS:HST)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�21%
Hold�54%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.51B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
276.60M
1.23B
-
109.59M
109.59M
-
496.81M
606.40M
-
213.44M
450.74M
1.60B
463.13M
937.07M
830.80M
2.23M
937.07M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
130.29M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 8300932.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 6505219.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
8.13B
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
194.55M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
370.32M
104.20M
474.51M
253.69M
-
-
728.20M
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
17.82B
18.54B
-
7.23B
-
-
-
7.23B
-
1.08B
1.08B
-
8.31B
6.18M
412.66M
2.2M
9.59B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
882.99M
10.01B
18.33B
-
7.23B
6.9B
100.00K
- 35716.00K
- 35616.00K
- 34540.00K
2.57M
-
- 123758.00K
32.45M
- 123280.00K
-
35.66M
370.32M
334.66M
194.55M
-
194.55M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
KIM
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$23.31
$42.98
$46.95
$51.30
$56.04