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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Kimberly-Clark Corporation (XNYS:KMB) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
KMB
Name:
KIMBERLY-CLARK CORPORATION (XNYS:KMB)
Sector:
- 49000.00K
Industry:
Household & Personal Products
CEO:
Mr. Michael Hsu
Total Employees:
45,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -31.90% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF KIMBERLY-CLARK CORPORATION(KMB) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND HOUSEHOLD & PERSONAL PRODUCTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
126.48
One Month Price Target:
$126.71
Six Month Price Target :
$127.88
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$129.27
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$126.15
Price Upper limit ($) :
$126.81
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$122.47
This week:
$117.51
This month :
$108.55
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
42.44B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
337.62M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
9.7%
-8.83%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$145.10
$136.64
$107.86
$116.32
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$133.88
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$132.07
$119.06
$120.89
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
KMB
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.55%
Comparison:
KMB, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -145.73% lower than the industry
& is -124.11% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
KMB
Daily returns:
0.00%
Weekly returns:
0.00%
Monthly returns:
0.01%
Yearly returns:
9.25%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -99.05% below industry average
Classification:
KMB, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.24
Statistical test of Returns:
KMB has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.54%
Weekly Volatility:
3.45%
Monthly Volatility:
6.90%
Yearly Volatility:
23.92%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.01%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -34.53% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.17%
Weekly VaR:
-7.09%
Monthly VaR:
-14.18%
How Much Can the price of
KMB
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-13%
Worst case (decline):
-49.11%
This translates to price declining to:
$110.62
This translates to price declining to:
$64.36
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
KMB is a 0.07% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is -14.27% less risky than Nasdaq(IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -37.52% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
KMB
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.33
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.495
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.7
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.033
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.303
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.447
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.744
Beta is -55.81% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.835
Beta is -60.64% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
49.39%
Sustainable growth rate is 70.27% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.053
Alpha is -1497.44% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -338% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
KMB
Equity cost of capital:
0.054
Equity cost of capital is -39.11% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
0.53%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.84%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.25%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.25%
WACC is -37.59% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$58.62
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
50
Annual revenue growth rate is -55.13% below industry average
EPS:
$5.18
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-5.20%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -109.92% lower than the Household & Personal Products industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.84
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 13.06%
Equity growth rate per share is 28.51% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$23.99
EBITDA per share
$9.54
Valuation Analysis Today of
KMB
P/E Ratio:
23.96
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
24.85
P/E ratio is -3.57% lower than main peers & is -9.38% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $136.98
KMB is -7.66% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $136.61
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $111.35
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.16
Price to sales ratio is -40.77% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
50
Price to free cash flow: 26.12
Price to free cash flow ratio is -30.58% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
32.99%
Net income growth rate is -98.73% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 21.91%
Dividend yeild: 3.64%
Previous Dividend: $1.16
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.16
Previous Dividend: $4.60
Expected next dividend best case: $1.20
Expected next dividend worst case: $1.12
Average dividend payment (long-term): $1.11
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.22%
Expected next dividend payment date: 10/03/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/10/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-09--$1.16
2021-12-09--$1.14
2021-06-03--$1.14
2022-03-03--$1.16
2021-09-09--$1.14
2021-03-04--$1.14
Dividend growth rate is -111.19% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
1149.08%
Net debt to equity ratio:
1216.60%
Debt to assets ratio:
43.39%
Net debt to assets ratio:
45.94%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -36.79% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
12.49
Interest coverage ratio is -11.40% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
2.44%
Annual debt growth is -95% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 3.57%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.465
Statistical significance of correlation:
KMB has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.556
Stock price is -16.35% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.556
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.017
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.016
Kurtosis
8.496
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.227
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
KMB
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
120%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
12.55%
Operating profit margin is -255.11% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
120%
Effective Tax Rate:
20.75%
Effective tax rate is -2.38% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
248.65%
Return on equity (ROE) is 464.38% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
9.39%
Return on assets (ROA) is 131.03% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.8x
Current Ratio:
0.81
Current ratio is -69.83% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-47.8
Cash conversion cycle is -145.29% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.91%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
439.8K
Each employee generates -34% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
71.6K
Each employee generates -50% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
39.0K
Each employee generates -54% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 1.1K
Each employee generates -145% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
283.8K
Each employee generates -145% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
KMB
CONSTELLATION BRANDS, INC. (XNYS:STZ)
CONSTELLATION BRANDS, INC. (XNYS:STZ)
KEURIG DR PEPPER INC. (XNAS:KDP)
GENERAL MILLS, INC. (XNYS:GIS)
SYSCO CORPORATION (XNYS:SYY)
Ambev SA (XNYS:ABEV)
THE HERSHEY COMPANY (XNYS:HSY)
ARCHER-DANIELS-MIDLAND COMPANY (XNYS:ADM)
THE KROGER CO. (XNYS:KR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�8%
Hold�50%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
19.79B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
13.87B
5.92B
-
-
3.47B
-
- 35000.00K
3.44B
7.00M
258.00M
765.00M
3.22B
2.48B
1.75B
2.15B
446.00M
1.75B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
188.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 52000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
16.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 369000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 114000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
204.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 34000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 83000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
493.00M
-
493.00M
2.52B
2.27B
629.00M
5.90B
8.11B
2.18B
926.00M
266.00M
-
1.29B
12.77B
-
18.67B
3.85B
969.00M
-
-
2.44B
7.26B
8.10B
1.77B
10.56B
-
17.82B
473.00M
7.99B
- 3180000.0K
- 4576000.00K
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
17.31B
705.00M
18.52B
-
9.07B
8.6B
255.00M
- 254000.00K
- 116000.00K
- 300000.00K
-
- 25000.00K
- 384000.00K
842.00M
133.00M
2.00M
223.00M
493.00M
270.00M
204.00M
- 253000.00K
- 49000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
KMB
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$140.72
$143.83
$147.01
$150.26
$153.57