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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Kilroy Realty Corporation (XNYS:KRC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
KRC
Name:
KILROY REALTY CORPORATION (XNYS:KRC)
Sector:
9.29M
Industry:
REIT�Office
CEO:
Mr. John Kilroy
Total Employees:
244
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -44.90% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF KILROY REALTY CORPORATION(KRC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�OFFICE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
48.68
One Month Price Target:
$48.9
Six Month Price Target :
$50.02
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$51.36
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$48.46
Price Upper limit ($) :
$48.86
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$46.23
This week:
$43.2
This month :
$37.73
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.69B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
116.87M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.26%
-18.5%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$60.06
$54.94
$37.30
$42.42
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$53.28
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$52.18
$44.07
$45.18
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
KRC
Sharpe Ratio:
-2.36%
Comparison:
KRC, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 2.10% higher than the industry
& is -203.44% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
KRC
Daily returns:
-0.05%
Weekly returns:
-0.24%
Monthly returns:
-0.97%
Yearly returns:
-13.59%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -14.59% below industry average
Classification:
KRC, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.43
Statistical test of Returns:
KRC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.43%
Weekly Volatility:
5.43%
Monthly Volatility:
10.85%
Yearly Volatility:
37.59%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.41%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -41.96% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.03%
Weekly VaR:
-11.25%
Monthly VaR:
-22.50%
How Much Can the price of
KRC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-77.95%
This translates to price declining to:
$38.72
This translates to price declining to:
$10.74
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
KRC is a 58.81% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 36.05% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -12.03% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
KRC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.82
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.67
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.948
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.721
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.845
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.911
Beta is -10.27% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.988
Beta is -17.25% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.22%
Sustainable growth rate is 214.87% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.204
Alpha is -13.40% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1296% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
KRC
Equity cost of capital:
0.088
Equity cost of capital is -11.77% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.83%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.45%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.45%
WACC is -29.09% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$8.43
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1
Annual revenue growth rate is -410.56% below industry average
EPS:
$1.56
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
42.05%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 262.55% higher than the REIT�Office industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 13.57%
Equity growth rate per share is -243.81% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$35.88
EBITDA per share
$5.00
Valuation Analysis Today of
KRC
P/E Ratio:
29.46
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
33.48
P/E ratio is -12.00% lower than main peers & is -52.21% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $96.18
KRC is -49.39% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $42.97
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $26.05
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.78
Price to sales ratio is -11.42% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
108.67%
Net income growth rate is 115.96% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 33.30%
Dividend yeild: 4.27%
Previous Dividend: $0.52
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.52
Previous Dividend: $2.08
Expected next dividend best case: $0.53
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.51
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.50
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.71%
Expected next dividend payment date: 10/11/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 28/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 13/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 30/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-29--$0.52
2021-12-30--$0.52
2021-06-29--$0.50
2022-03-30--$0.52
2021-09-29--$0.52
2021-03-30--$0.50
Dividend growth rate is -106.18% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
77.30%
Net debt to equity ratio:
71.19%
Debt to assets ratio:
39.70%
Net debt to assets ratio:
36.56%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -117.41% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.61
Interest coverage ratio is -300.98% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
4.30%
Annual debt growth is -193% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.03%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.682
Statistical significance of correlation:
KRC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.626
Stock price is 9.00% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.626
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.049
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.068
Kurtosis
10.502
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.002
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
KRC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
287%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
29.60%
Operating profit margin is 49.32% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
287%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
3.38%
Return on equity (ROE) is -22.78% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.74%
Return on assets (ROA) is -37.09% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
1.22
Current ratio is -162.55% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
7.6
Cash conversion cycle is -76.48% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.86%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
4.0M
Each employee generates 76% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
2.4M
Each employee generates 41% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
752.6K
Each employee generates 16% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
38.1K
Each employee generates -3% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
39.8M
Each employee generates -3% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
KRC
REXFORD INDUSTRIAL REALTY, INC (XNYS:REXR)
LIFE STORAGE, INC. (XNYS:LSI)
CUBESMART (XNYS:CUBE)
NATIONAL RETAIL PROPERTIES, INC. (XNYS:NNN)
STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. (XNYS:STWD)
OMEGA HEALTHCARE INVESTORS, INC. (XNYS:OHI)
KIM-PL
KIM-PM
VORNADO REALTY TRUST (XNYS:VNO)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�17%
Hold�29%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
984.90M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
277.07M
707.83M
-
93.55M
93.55M
-
322.77M
416.32M
2.62M
76.85M
324.16M
584.64M
291.51M
183.64M
210.88M
-
183.64M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
89.02M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
5.26M
Change in Working Capital :
46.49M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 21490.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
178.66M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
331.69M
25.83M
357.51M
433.00M
-
70.35M
860.86M
126.95M
-
-
-
-
9.58B
9.70B
-
10.56B
391.92M
-
-
251.31M
61.95M
705.18M
4.19B
-
4.19B
-
4.90B
1.17M
274.19M
-
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
693.39M
5.43B
10.32B
-
4.19B
3.9B
-
- 169374.00K
- 169374.00K
- 1369.00K
-
- 13994.00K
- 61161.00K
- 15152.00K
- 91676.00K
-
- 82391.00K
344.69M
427.08M
178.66M
- 169374.00K
9.29M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
KRC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$51.62
$70.65
$74.53
$78.63
$82.95