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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Kforce Inc. (XNAS:KFRC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
KFRC
Name:
KFORCE INC. (XNAS:KFRC)
Sector:
36.52M
Industry:
Staffing & Employment Services
CEO:
Mr. David Dunkel
Total Employees:
2,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 92.85% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF KFORCE INC.(KFRC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND STAFFING & EMPLOYMENT SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
54.89
One Month Price Target:
$55.23
Six Month Price Target :
$56.91
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$58.94
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$54.68
Price Upper limit ($) :
$55.19
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$51.88
This week:
$48.16
This month :
$41.43
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.19B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
21.18M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
22.6%
-18.43%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$68.85
$62.41
$40.93
$47.37
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$60.31
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$58.93
$49.45
$50.85
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
KFRC
Sharpe Ratio:
2.64%
Comparison:
KFRC, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 55.88% higher than the industry
& ratio is 15.66% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
KFRC
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.40%
Monthly returns:
1.61%
Yearly returns:
14.00%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 37.67% above industry average
Classification:
KFRC, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.49
Statistical test of Returns:
KFRC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.71%
Weekly Volatility:
6.06%
Monthly Volatility:
12.12%
Yearly Volatility:
41.98%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.06%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -97.64% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.48%
Weekly VaR:
-12.26%
Monthly VaR:
-24.53%
How Much Can the price of
KFRC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-21%
Worst case (decline):
-84.97%
This translates to price declining to:
$43.49
This translates to price declining to:
$8.25
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
KFRC is a 73.12% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 48.31% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -5.50% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
KFRC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.10
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.726
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.027
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.773
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.441
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.629
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.112
Beta is -1.35% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.192
Beta is -8.01% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
29.24%
Sustainable growth rate is 76.88% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.086
Alpha is 221.33% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 548% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
KFRC
Equity cost of capital:
0.107
Equity cost of capital is -5.78% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.51%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$77.15
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
5.86
Annual revenue growth rate is 221.40% above the industry average
EPS:
$3.85
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-14.72%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -285.78% lower than the Staffing & Employment Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.98
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 64.41%
Equity growth rate per share is 2481.87% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$5.20
EBITDA per share
$5.28
Valuation Analysis Today of
KFRC
P/E Ratio:
13.21
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
96.84
P/E ratio is -86.36% lower than main peers & is -27.76% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $70.38
KFRC is -22.01% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $65.92
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $22.65
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.71
Price to sales ratio is -73.07% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
5.86
Price to free cash flow: 13.78
Price to free cash flow ratio is -74.30% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
57.56%
Net income growth rate is 1420.67% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 7.51%
Dividend yeild: 2.04%
Previous Dividend: $0.30
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.30
Previous Dividend: $1.12
Expected next dividend best case: $0.33
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.27
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.23
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 5.45%
Expected next dividend payment date: 22/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 24/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/10/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-09--$0.30
2021-12-09--$0.26
2021-06-10--$0.23
2022-03-10--$0.30
2021-09-09--$0.26
2021-03-11--$0.23
Dividend growth rate is -137.02% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
55.57%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-0.53%
Debt to assets ratio:
20.80%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-0.20%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -69.10% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-11.54%
Annual debt growth is -106% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.399
Statistical significance of correlation:
KFRC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.529
Stock price is -24.56% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.529
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.015
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.024
Kurtosis
12.193
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.599
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
KFRC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
118%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
7.04%
Operating profit margin is 0.17% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
118%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.50%
Effective tax rate is -4.45% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
40.92%
Return on equity (ROE) is 72.10% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
15.32%
Return on assets (ROA) is 115.43% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
2.21
Current ratio is 31.35% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
35.5
Cash conversion cycle is 140.80% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 13.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
5.47%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
816.8K
Each employee generates 60% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
55.9K
Each employee generates 44% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
40.5K
Each employee generates 101% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
18.3K
Each employee generates -254% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
62.0K
Each employee generates -254% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
KFRC
Oxford Square Capital Corp. (XNAS:OXSQL)
MATTHEWS INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION (XNAS:MATW)
THE SHYFT GROUP, INC. (XNAS:SHYF)
HURON CONSULTING GROUP INC. (XNAS:HURN)
HAWAIIAN HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:HA)
US ECOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:ECOL)
NV5 Global, Inc. (XNAS:NVEE)
GOLAR LNG LIMITED (XNAS:GLNG)
MYR GROUP INC. (XNAS:MYRG)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�0%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.63B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.15B
482.07M
-
268.64M
362.74M
-
4.39M
367.13M
-
-
4.39M
111.80M
114.94M
81.10M
107.41M
26.31M
81.10M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.09M
Differed Income Tax :
8.32M
Stock Based Compensation :
4.44M
Change in Working Capital :
2.85M
Accounts Receivables:
- 12914.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.86M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
38.74M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 500.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
116.63M
-
116.63M
281.31M
-
7.52M
405.45M
19.96M
25.04M
14.80M
16.68M
-
47.56M
124.04M
-
529.49M
48.86M
5.45M
30.55M
-
128.90M
183.20M
110.14M
37.29M
148.09M
-
331.29M
730.00K
455.37M
2.9M
- 260813.00K
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.52B
198.21M
529.49M
-
115.58M
- 1044.0K
-
- 2221.00K
- 2721.00K
-
-
- 10270.00K
- 6094.00K
- 19.00K
- 16383.00K
-
19.64M
116.63M
96.99M
38.74M
- 2221.00K
36.52M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
KFRC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$59.23
$136.54
$146.60
$157.41
$169.01