_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Keysight Technologies, Inc. (XNYS:KEYS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
KEYS
Name:
KEYSIGHT TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNYS:KEYS)
Sector:
182.00M
Industry:
Scientific & Technical Instruments
CEO:
Mr. Ronald S. Nersesian
Total Employees:
14,700
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -104.27% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF KEYSIGHT TECHNOLOGIES, INC.(KEYS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SCIENTIFIC & TECHNICAL INSTRUMENTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
163.27
One Month Price Target:
$164.26
Six Month Price Target :
$169.23
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$175.2
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$162.81
Price Upper limit ($) :
$164.03
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$156.06
This week:
$147.15
This month :
$131.03
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
29.24B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
178.80M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.43%
-10.28%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$196.69
$181.16
$129.85
$145.38
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$176.11
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$172.80
$150.39
$153.74
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
KEYS
Sharpe Ratio:
3.73%
Comparison:
KEYS, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 174.79% higher than the industry
& ratio is 63.73% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
KEYS
Daily returns:
0.09%
Weekly returns:
0.45%
Monthly returns:
1.81%
Yearly returns:
11.06%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 96.81% above industry average
Classification:
KEYS, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.47
Statistical test of Returns:
KEYS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.19%
Weekly Volatility:
4.91%
Monthly Volatility:
9.81%
Yearly Volatility:
33.99%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.68%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -69.09% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.42%
Weekly VaR:
-9.87%
Monthly VaR:
-19.75%
How Much Can the price of
KEYS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-68.40%
This translates to price declining to:
$136.46
This translates to price declining to:
$51.59
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
KEYS is a 39.37% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 19.40% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -20.36% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
KEYS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.09
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.709
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.003
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.75
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.909
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.756
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.267
Beta is -14.20% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.276
Beta is -14.80% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
24.47%
Sustainable growth rate is 12.23% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.112
Alpha is -1455.60% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 712% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
KEYS
Equity cost of capital:
0.106
Equity cost of capital is -10.88% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.31%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.92%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.10%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.10%
WACC is -10.28% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$28.75
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
7.66
Annual revenue growth rate is 79.28% above the industry average
EPS:
$5.53
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
15.58%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 174.43% higher than the Scientific & Technical Instruments industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$6.20
-
-
Debt per share
$11.04
EBITDA per share
$8.36
Valuation Analysis Today of
KEYS
P/E Ratio:
27.08
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
18.15
P/E ratio is 49.23% higher than main peers & is -37.57% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $239.83
KEYS is -31.92% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.68
Price to sales ratio is 16.59% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
7.66
Price to free cash flow: 26.32
Price to free cash flow ratio is -20.77% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
447.68%
Net income growth rate is -1744.73% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
51.81%
Net debt to equity ratio:
0.97%
Debt to assets ratio:
25.54%
Net debt to assets ratio:
0.48%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -45.99% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
18.91
Interest coverage ratio is 64.10% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
10.43%
Annual debt growth is -87% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.737
Statistical significance of correlation:
KEYS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.619
Stock price is 18.99% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.619
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.016
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.021
Kurtosis
4.605
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.175
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
KEYS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
256%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
23.94%
Operating profit margin is 127.35% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
256%
Effective Tax Rate:
13.16%
Effective tax rate is -67.18% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
26.85%
Return on equity (ROE) is 39.59% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
13.24%
Return on assets (ROA) is 146.74% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
3.03
Current ratio is 28.52% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
32.6
Cash conversion cycle is -41.25% below industry average
-
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
4.89%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
349.7K
Each employee generates 9% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
101.6K
Each employee generates 59% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
69.6K
Each employee generates 102% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
12.4K
Each employee generates 211% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
266.7K
Each employee generates 211% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 13.43%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 352.41% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
KEYS
CLOUDFLARE, INC. (XNYS:NET)
Nokia Corporation (XNYS:NOK)
Unity Software Inc (XNYS:U)
CORNING INCORPORATED (XNYS:GLW)
EPAM SYSTEMS, INC. (XNYS:EPAM)
ARISTA NETWORKS, INC. (XNYS:ANET)
UNITED MICROELECTRONICS CORP. (XNYS:UMC)
HP INC. (XNYS:HPQ)
WORK
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�13%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/30/22
Revenue:
5.14B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.85B
3.29B
823.00M
-
1.24B
-
- 11000.00K
2.05B
4.00M
79.00M
237.00M
1.49B
1.23B
1.02B
1.18B
155.00M
1.02B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
57.00M
Differed Income Tax :
9.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
50.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 132000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
25.00M
Other Working Capital:
- 135000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
11.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
224.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 42000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 7000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
1/31/22
2022
Q1
1.98B
-
1.98B
708.00M
804.00M
319.00M
3.81B
890.00M
1.62B
250.00M
65.00M
695.00M
397.00M
3.92B
-
7.73B
294.00M
40.00M
86.00M
495.00M
428.00M
1.26B
1.97B
- 198000.00K
2.66B
-
3.92B
2.00M
3.66B
- 451000.0K
600.00M
January 31, 2022 at 7:00:00 AM
3.91B
3.81B
7.73B
-
2.01B
37.0M
-
-
- 49000.00K
-
-
- 206000.00K
-
- 41000.00K
- 247000.00K
- 4000.00K
- 76000.00K
1.99B
2.07B
224.00M
- 42000.00K
182.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
KEYS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$181.76
$195.03
$209.28
$224.57
$240.97