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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Keycorp (XNYS:KEY) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
KEY
Name:
KEYCORP (XNYS:KEY)
Sector:
863.00M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Ms. Beth Mooney
Total Employees:
17,262
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -39.71% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF KEYCORP(KEY) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
17.55
One Month Price Target:
$17.68
Six Month Price Target :
$18.32
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$19.08
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$17.46
Price Upper limit ($) :
$17.66
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$16.36
This week:
$14.9
This month :
$12.25
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
16.15B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
932.66M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.56%
-21.52%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$23.06
$20.54
$12.04
$14.56
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$19.72
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$19.18
$15.37
$15.92
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
KEY
Sharpe Ratio:
0.90%
Comparison:
KEY, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -26.65% lower than the industry
& is -60.47% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
KEY
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.19%
Monthly returns:
0.77%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -14.94% below industry average
Classification:
KEY, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.9
Statistical test of Returns:
KEY has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.31%
Weekly Volatility:
7.40%
Monthly Volatility:
14.80%
Yearly Volatility:
51.28%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.41%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -87.63% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.76%
Weekly VaR:
-15.11%
Monthly VaR:
-30.23%
How Much Can the price of
KEY
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-26%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$12.94
This translates to price declining to:
$2.63
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
KEY is a 113.34% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 82.77% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 15.87% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
KEY
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.30
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.052
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.488
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.771
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.967
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.148
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.224
Beta is 6.22% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 34.95% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
10.13%
Sustainable growth rate is 10.93% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.028
Alpha is -339.31% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -177% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
KEY
Equity cost of capital:
0.121
Equity cost of capital is 23.66% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.15%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.15%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.70%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.70%
WACC is -1.54% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$7.49
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.07
Annual revenue growth rate is -13.34% below industry average
EPS:
$2.47
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
17.14%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 42.57% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.31
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 37.89%
Equity growth rate per share is -2.16% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$13.98
EBITDA per share
$3.57
Valuation Analysis Today of
KEY
P/E Ratio:
7.7
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
8.82
P/E ratio is -12.76% lower than main peers & is -37.97% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $30.65
KEY is -42.74% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $18.64
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $6.64
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.34
Price to sales ratio is -45.18% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.07
Price to free cash flow: 7.59
Price to free cash flow ratio is -12.39% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
54.61%
Net income growth rate is -0.84% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 8.49%
Dividend yeild: 4.25%
Previous Dividend: $0.20
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.20
Previous Dividend: $0.75
Expected next dividend best case: $0.20
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.19
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.19
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.76%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/10/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 31/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/12/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-27--$0.20
2021-11-29--$0.20
2021-08-30--$0.19
2022-02-28--$0.20
2021-09-21--$0.16
2021-05-28--$0.19
Dividend growth rate is -96.77% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
85.16%
Net debt to equity ratio:
80.69%
Debt to assets ratio:
7.19%
Net debt to assets ratio:
6.82%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -95.68% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
11.9
Interest coverage ratio is 1335.36% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-12.70%
Annual debt growth is -4111% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 27.68%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.69
Statistical significance of correlation:
KEY has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 37.83% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.036
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.07
Kurtosis
9.909
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.05
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
KEY
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
2.12%
Operating profit margin is -94.08% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
19.33%
Effective tax rate is -10.28% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
16.01%
Return on equity (ROE) is 34.21% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.35%
Return on assets (ROA) is -41.31% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.18%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
404.5K
Each employee generates 7% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
193.0K
Each employee generates -15% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
142.0K
Each employee generates 0% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
50.0K
Each employee generates -40% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
3.4M
Each employee generates -40% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
KEY
THE HARTFORD FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP, INC. (XNYS:HIG)
Credit Suisse Group Ltd (XNYS:CS)
REGIONS FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNYS:RF)
CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. (XNYS:CFG)
M&T BANK CORPORATION (XNYS:MTB)
SYNCHRONY FINANCIAL (XNYS:SYF)
RAYMOND JAMES FINANCIAL, INC. (XNYS:RJF)
STT-PG
ROCKET COMPANIES, INC. (XNYS:RKT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�25%
Buy�50%
Hold�38%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
6.98B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
1.87B
-
2.68B
2.81B
128.00M
- 388000.00K
353.00M
4.36B
280.00M
15.00M
3.33B
148.00M
2.45B
3.03B
585.00M
2.45B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
40.00M
Differed Income Tax :
124.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
29.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 147000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 147000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
387.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
881.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 18000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 2630000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
684.00M
47.56B
48.25B
13.46B
-
-
-
647.00M
2.69B
118.00M
56.00B
-
-
59.46B
240.68B
181.22B
-
-
-
-
-
-
13.04B
-
13.04B
178.95B
165.91B
1.26B
14.79B
- 2929000.0K
287.00M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
15.31B
181.22B
103.57B
13.04B
12.4B
9.35B
- 4723000.00K
1.97B
- 4989000.00K
5.00M
-
- 208000.00K
2.11B
- 3084000.00K
-
- 229000.00K
684.00M
913.00M
881.00M
- 18000.00K
863.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
KEY
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$23.87
$25.96
$28.23
$30.70
$33.38