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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Kemper Corporation (XNYS:KMPR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
KMPR
Name:
KEMPER CORPORATION (XNYS:KMPR)
Sector:
- 34200.00K
Industry:
Insurance�Property & Casualty
CEO:
Mr. Joseph Lacher
Total Employees:
10,300
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF KEMPER CORPORATION(KMPR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INSURANCE�PROPERTY & CASUALTY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
45.8
One Month Price Target:
$45.99
Six Month Price Target :
$46.97
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$48.13
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$45.59
Price Upper limit ($) :
$45.97
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$43.48
This week:
$40.6
This month :
$35.41
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.92B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
63.85M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.97%
-14.37%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$56.60
$51.73
$35.00
$39.87
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$50.15
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$49.11
$41.44
$42.49
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
KMPR
Sharpe Ratio:
-2.01%
Comparison:
KMPR, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -245.66% lower than the industry
& is -188.36% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
KMPR
Daily returns:
-0.04%
Weekly returns:
-0.20%
Monthly returns:
-0.81%
Yearly returns:
10.43%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -193.23% below industry average
Classification:
KMPR, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.99
Statistical test of Returns:
KMPR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.45%
Weekly Volatility:
5.48%
Monthly Volatility:
10.96%
Yearly Volatility:
37.96%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.61%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -75.19% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.07%
Weekly VaR:
-11.34%
Monthly VaR:
-22.69%
How Much Can the price of
KMPR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-21%
Worst case (decline):
-78.59%
This translates to price declining to:
$36.40
This translates to price declining to:
$9.81
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
KMPR is a 60.12% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 37.18% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 1.77% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
KMPR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.76
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.774
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.095
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.593
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.616
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.688
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.173
Beta is -35.35% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.555
Beta is 36.66% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.181
Alpha is -620.16% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1150% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
KMPR
Equity cost of capital:
0.083
Equity cost of capital is 20.05% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.52%
Before-tax cost of debt:
10.31%
After-tax cost of debt:
8.14%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
8.14%
WACC is 26.09% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$91.20
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.86
Annual revenue growth rate is -52.18% below industry average
EPS:
-$5.31
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.82
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 29.58%
Equity growth rate per share is -34.60% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$21.69
EBITDA per share
-$3.86
Valuation Analysis Today of
KMPR
P/E Ratio:
0
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
259.01
P/E ratio is -100.00% lower than main peers & is higher than the industry
-
KMPR is -149.30% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $31.44
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $17.17
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.5
Price to sales ratio is -79.06% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.86
Price to free cash flow: 16.23
Price to free cash flow ratio is -41.23% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-157.91%
Net income growth rate is 441.03% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: -5.85%
Dividend yeild: 2.71%
Previous Dividend: $0.31
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.31
Previous Dividend: $1.24
Expected next dividend best case: $0.32
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.30
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.30
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.05%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/02/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 31/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 16/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-13--$0.31
2021-11-12--$0.31
2021-05-14--$0.31
2022-02-11--$0.31
2021-08-13--$0.31
2021-02-12--$0.31
Dividend growth rate is -97.72% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
40.81%
Net debt to equity ratio:
32.05%
Debt to assets ratio:
9.48%
Net debt to assets ratio:
7.44%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -85.75% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-1.72
Interest coverage ratio is -135.82% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-4.34%
Annual debt growth is 93% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 16.81%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.585
Statistical significance of correlation:
KMPR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.6
Stock price is -2.51% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.6
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.006
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.008
Kurtosis
8.423
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.295
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
KMPR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-6.35%
Operating profit margin is 0.37% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
31.39%
Effective tax rate is 57.09% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-9.97%
Return on equity (ROE) is -222.48% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-2.32%
Return on assets (ROA) is -251.12% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
565.3K
Each employee generates -53% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 23.9K
Each employee generates -112% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 32.9K
Each employee generates -123% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 3.3K
Each employee generates -105% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
0.0K
Each employee generates -105% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
KMPR
PENNYMAC FINANCIAL SERVICES, INC. (XNYS:PFSI)
RADIAN GROUP INC. (XNYS:RDN)
PERSHING SQUARE TONTINE HOLDINGS, LTD. (XNYS:PSTH)
DATTO HOLDING CORP. (XNYS:MSP)
STL-PA
BANKUNITED, INC. (XNYS:BKU)
CI Financial Corp. (XNYS:CIXX)
COMMUNITY BANK SYSTEM, INC. (XNYS:CBU)
-
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
5.82B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
1.50B
-
169.40M
169.40M
-
-
-
144.70M
142.80M
104.30M
- 246300.00K
- 369800.00K
- 338500.00K
- 493400.00K
- 154900.00K
- 338500.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
19.60M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
6.80M
Accounts Receivables:
13.90M
Other Working Capital:
600.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
50.20M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 18200.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 550400.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
297.30M
8.03B
8.33B
1.79B
-
-
-
-
1.31B
-
8.91B
-
-
-
14.61B
14.61B
-
-
-
-
-
-
1.39B
-
1.45B
12.68B
11.22B
6.40M
1.65B
- 62300.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
6.32B
3.39B
14.61B
16.94B
1.39B
1.1B
439.10M
- 113800.00K
- 225100.00K
- 280000.00K
-
-
- 19800.00K
692.20M
392.40M
-
149.10M
297.30M
148.20M
- 18200.00K
- 16000.00K
- 34200.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
KMPR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$48.28
$50.74
$53.33
$56.05
$58.90