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Kemper Corporation (XNYS:KMPR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today

Primary Facts

KMPR

Name:

KEMPER CORPORATION (XNYS:KMPR)

Sector:

- 34200.00K

Industry:

Insurance�Property & Casualty

CEO:

Mr. Joseph Lacher

Total Employees:

10,300

Our Technological Advancement Rating

Our Rating:

-

-

ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF KEMPER CORPORATION(KMPR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INSURANCE�PROPERTY & CASUALTY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022

Primary Targets/Price Insights

Previous Close ($) :

45.8

One Month Price Target:

$45.99

Six Month Price Target :

$46.97

Likely Price in One Year's Time:

Ticker:

$48.13

Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
 

$45.59

Price Upper limit ($) :

$45.97

Price Lower limit ($) :

Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)

Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:

Today:

$43.48

                                                               This week:

$40.6

                                                        This month :

$35.41

Other Primary facts

Market Cap:

2.92B

Market Cap Classification:

Mid Cap

Number of Shares

IPO Date:

63.85M

Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
 

Highest Daily Appreciation:

17.97%

-14.37%

Worst Daily Decline:

Our Options Trading Entry Points

Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time

Low risk (<2%) entry points

Buy Call:

Sell Call:

Buy Put:

Sell Put:

$56.60

$51.73

$35.00

$39.87

Medium risk (<10%) entry points

Buy Call

Sell Call

$50.15

Buy Put:

Sell Put:

$49.11

$41.44

$42.49

These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.

Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of

KMPR

Sharpe Ratio:

-2.01%

Comparison:

KMPR, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns

Sharpe ratio is -245.66% lower than the industry

& is -188.36% lower than the market/S&P 500 average

Average Returns/Yield of

KMPR

Daily returns:

-0.04%

Weekly returns:

-0.20%

Monthly returns:

-0.81%

Yearly returns:

10.43%

Comparison of returns:

Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -193.23% below industry average

Classification:

KMPR, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns

Results of T-Test of Returns:

0.99

Statistical test of Returns:

KMPR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market

SHARPE ratio explained.png

Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)

Daily Volatility:

2.45%

Weekly Volatility:

5.48%

Monthly Volatility:

10.96%

Yearly Volatility:

37.96%

Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation) 

Average Volatility of this Week:

0.61%

Volatility in last five trading days has been -75.19% below long-term volatility

Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)

Daily VaR:

-5.07%

Weekly VaR:

-11.34%

Monthly VaR:

-22.69%

How Much Can the price of

KMPR

Decline in a Recession?

Likely price decline in a recession: 

Base case (decline):

-21%

Worst case (decline):

-78.59%

This translates to price declining to:

$36.40

This translates to price declining to:

$9.81

Severe Crash Probability

Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)

What is Value at Risk (VaR)?

VaR explained figure

Risk Fundamentals

KMPR is a 60.12% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 37.18% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)

Risk (measured by volatility) is 1.77% above industry average

Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks

Beta Examination of

KMPR

Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.76

Expected beta in 1 year's time:

0.774

Expected beta in 3 year's time:

1.095

Unlevered (debt free) Beta:

0.593

Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):

0.616

Beta in relation to all global stocks::

0.688

Beta Comparison & Analysis

Beta of competitors/peers::

1.173

Beta is -35.35% lower than peers

Average Industry Beta: 

0.555

Beta is 36.66% above industry average

Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis

Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:

-

-

Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis 

Alpha provided:

-0.181

Alpha is -620.16% below industry average alpha yield

Alpha is -1150% below the market average

Analysis of Cost of Capital of

KMPR

Equity cost of capital:

0.083

Equity cost of capital is 20.05% above industry mean WACC

Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:  

6.52%

Before-tax cost of debt:

10.31%

After-tax cost of debt:

8.14%

Overall debt rating:

Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade

Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):

8.14%

WACC is 26.09% above industry mean WACC

Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis

Revenue per share:

$91.20

Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):

0.86

Annual revenue growth rate is -52.18% below industry average

EPS:

-$5.31

Expected Annual growth rate of  EPS (3Y):

0.00%

-

Free cash flow (FCF) per share:

$2.82

Balance sheet equity growth per share: 29.58%

Equity growth rate per share is -34.60% lower than the industry

Debt per share

$21.69

EBITDA per share

-$3.86

Valuation Analysis Today of

KMPR

P/E Ratio:

0

P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:

259.01

P/E ratio is -100.00% lower than main peers & is higher than the industry

-

KMPR is -149.30% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio

Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $31.44

Present value of the expected future dividends only: $17.17

P/S (Price to Sales ratio):

0.5

Price to sales ratio is -79.06% below the industry mean

P/B (Price to book value ratio):

0.86

Price to free cash flow: 16.23

Price to free cash flow ratio is -41.23% lower than the industry

Net income growth rate (3Y):

-157.91%

Net income growth rate is 441.03% higher than the average industry net income growth rate

Dividend Analysis

Dividend payout rate: -5.85%

Dividend yeild: 2.71%

Previous Dividend: $0.31

Previous adjusted dividend: $0.31

Previous Dividend: $1.24

Expected next dividend best case: $0.32

Expected next dividend worst case: $0.30

Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.30

Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.05%

Expected next dividend payment date: 29/08/2022

Expected next dividend record date: 15/08/2022

Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/02/2022

Previous dividend payment date: 31/05/2022

Previous dividend record date: 16/05/2022

Previous dividend declaration date: 05/04/2022

Dividend History:

2022-05-13--$0.31

2021-11-12--$0.31

2021-05-14--$0.31

2022-02-11--$0.31

2021-08-13--$0.31

2021-02-12--$0.31

Dividend growth rate is -97.72% lower than the industry average

In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis

Debt to equity ratio:

40.81%

Net debt to equity ratio:

32.05%

Debt to assets ratio:

9.48%

Net debt to assets ratio:

7.44%

Debt-to-asset ratio is -85.75% below industry average

Ability to repay debt:

Interest coverage ratio:

-1.72

Interest coverage ratio is -135.82% less than industry average

Looking forward:

Debt growth rate:

-4.34%

Annual debt growth is 93% higher than industry average debt growth rate

Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 16.81%

Analysis of Key Statistics  

Correlation of price movement with the market:

0.585

Statistical significance of correlation:

KMPR has a statistically significant correlation with the market

Average Correlation of  the industry with the market:

0.6

Stock price is -2.51% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation

R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market): 

0.6

Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):

-0.006

Covariance  of price movement with the market:

-0.008

Kurtosis 

8.423

Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns

Skewness of returns:

0.295

Returns are, approximately, symmetrical

Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of

KMPR

Gross Profit Margin Ratio:

100%

Operating Profit Margin Ratio:

-6.35%

Operating profit margin is 0.37% higher than the industry

Net Profit Margin Ratio:

100%

Effective Tax Rate:

31.39%

Effective tax rate is 57.09% higher than the industry

Dupont Method

Net Profit Margin

Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):

×

ROA

=

×

-9.97%

Return on equity (ROE) is -222.48% lower than the industry

Financial Leverage

Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):

-2.32%

Return on assets (ROA) is -251.12% lower than the industry

Financial Leverage:

1.1x

Current Ratio:

0

-

Cash Conversion Cycle (days):

0

-

The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.8 years

Stock based compensation to net income ratio:

-

In-depth Efficiency  Analysis

Revenue generated per employee:

565.3K

Each employee generates -53% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee

EBITDA generated per employee: 

- 23.9K

Each employee generates -112% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee

Profit generated per employee: 

- 32.9K

Each employee generates -123% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee

Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee: 

- 3.3K

Each employee generates -105% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee

Assets/Capital per employee

0.0K

Each employee generates -105% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee

Research & Development (R&D) Analysis

-

-

Competitors/Peer firms of 

KMPR

PENNYMAC FINANCIAL SERVICES, INC. (XNYS:PFSI)

RADIAN GROUP INC. (XNYS:RDN)

PERSHING SQUARE TONTINE HOLDINGS, LTD. (XNYS:PSTH)

DATTO HOLDING CORP. (XNYS:MSP)

STL-PA

BANKUNITED, INC. (XNYS:BKU)

CI Financial Corp. (XNYS:CIXX)

COMMUNITY BANK SYSTEM, INC. (XNYS:CBU)

-

Current Analyst Ratings

Strong buy�4%

Buy�0%