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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Kelly Services, Inc. (XNAS:KELYA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
KELYA
Name:
KELLY SERVICES, INC. (XNAS:KELYA)
Sector:
7.80M
Industry:
Staffing & Employment Services
CEO:
Mr. Peter Quigley
Total Employees:
7,400
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -760.19% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF KELLY SERVICES, INC.(KELYA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND STAFFING & EMPLOYMENT SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
15.96
One Month Price Target:
$16.05
Six Month Price Target :
$16.52
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$17.07
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$15.87
Price Upper limit ($) :
$16.05
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$14.86
This week:
$13.49
This month :
$11.03
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
608.80M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
37.95M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
20.93%
-16.87%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$21.08
$18.75
$10.84
$13.17
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$17.99
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$17.49
$13.92
$14.43
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
KELYA
Sharpe Ratio:
0.09%
Comparison:
KELYA, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -94.80% lower than the industry
& is -96.14% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
KELYA
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.06%
Monthly returns:
0.24%
Yearly returns:
14.00%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -79.75% below industry average
Classification:
KELYA, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.9
Statistical test of Returns:
KELYA has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.37%
Weekly Volatility:
7.53%
Monthly Volatility:
15.07%
Yearly Volatility:
52.19%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.38%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -59.16% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.91%
Weekly VaR:
-15.45%
Monthly VaR:
-30.89%
How Much Can the price of
KELYA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$11.62
This translates to price declining to:
$2.39
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
KELYA is a 118.03% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 86.78% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 17.50% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
KELYA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.04
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.772
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.092
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.001
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.478
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.847
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.498
Beta is -30.65% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.192
Beta is -12.91% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
8.21%
Sustainable growth rate is -50.34% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.074
Alpha is -377.44% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -473% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
KELYA
Equity cost of capital:
0.103
Equity cost of capital is -9.32% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.89%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.53%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.00%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.00%
WACC is 1.75% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$129.39
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.48
-
EPS:
$2.04
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
11.21%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 41.47% higher than the Staffing & Employment Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.90
-
-
Debt per share
$1.55
EBITDA per share
$6.46
Valuation Analysis Today of
KELYA
P/E Ratio:
10.63
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
21.78
P/E ratio is -51.17% lower than main peers & is -41.83% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $37.29
KELYA is -57.20% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $29.50
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $3.35
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.12
Price to sales ratio is -95.33% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.48
Price to free cash flow: 8.40
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 1.21%
Dividend yeild: 1.41%
Previous Dividend: $0.08
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.08
Previous Dividend: $0.23
Expected next dividend best case: $0.09
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.06
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.06
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 3.33%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/07/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 24/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/08/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/09/2022
Previous dividend record date: 26/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/10/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-25--$0.08
2021-11-23--$0.05
2020-02-21--$0.08
2022-02-25--$0.05
2021-08-24--$0.05
2019-11-19--$0.08
Dividend growth rate is -122.62% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
4.61%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-12.19%
Debt to assets ratio:
2.11%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-5.58%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -96.87% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
129.05
Interest coverage ratio is 342.17% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.34%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.395
Statistical significance of correlation:
KELYA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.529
Stock price is -25.35% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.529
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.006
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.011
Kurtosis
6.128
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.535
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
KELYA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
75%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.99%
Operating profit margin is -85.91% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
75%
Effective Tax Rate:
18.89%
Effective tax rate is -26.32% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
12.34%
Return on equity (ROE) is -48.08% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.64%
Return on assets (ROA) is -20.62% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
1.53
Current ratio is -9.40% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
105.8
Cash conversion cycle is 617.00% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.89%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
663.5K
Each employee generates 30% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
33.1K
Each employee generates -15% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
21.2K
Each employee generates 5% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
1.1K
Each employee generates -109% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
129.6K
Each employee generates -109% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
KELYA
KELLY SERVICES, INC. (XNAS:KELYB)
TRAVELCENTERS OF AMERICA INC. (XNAS:TANNZ)
TRAVELCENTERS OF AMERICA INC. (XNAS:TANNL)
IES Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:IESC)
OFSSZ
ECHO ENERGY PLC (XLON:ECHO)
CONIFER HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CNFRL)
APOGEE ENTERPRISES, INC. (XNAS:APOG)
GREAT LAKES DREDGE & DOCK CORPORATION (XNAS:GLDD)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/3/22
Revenue:
4.91B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
3.99B
919.20M
-
-
870.60M
-
-
870.60M
100.00K
1.90M
51.00M
245.20M
48.60M
157.20M
185.80M
35.10M
157.20M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
11.10M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
1.40M
Change in Working Capital :
- 27600.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
10.50M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/3/22
2022
Q1
230.30M
-
230.30M
1.52B
-
72.20M
1.83B
103.80M
155.80M
-
-
303.60M
396.10M
959.30M
-
2.79B
-
16.30M
109.10M
-
1.18B
1.20B
58.70M
257.10M
315.80M
-
1.51B
38.50M
1.34B
- 14700.0K
-
April 3, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
4.86B
1.27B
2.79B
-
75.00M
- 155300.0K
316.40M
- 308500.00K
7.90M
- 200.00K
-
-
- 1900.00K
2.20M
100.00K
- 1400.00K
125.70M
245.20M
119.50M
10.50M
- 2700.00K
7.80M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
KELYA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$17.16
$31.08
$33.25
$35.57
$38.05