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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Kearny Financial Corp. (XNAS:KRNY) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
KRNY
Name:
KEARNY FINANCIAL CORP. (XNAS:KRNY)
Sector:
5.01M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Craig Montanaro
Total Employees:
596
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -175.65% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF KEARNY FINANCIAL CORP.(KRNY) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
11.31
One Month Price Target:
$11.36
Six Month Price Target :
$11.6
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$11.9
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$11.27
Price Upper limit ($) :
$11.35
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$10.78
This week:
$10.12
This month :
$8.93
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
760.73M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
68.23M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
10.35%
-10.32%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$13.78
$12.66
$8.84
$9.96
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$12.29
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$12.05
$10.32
$10.57
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
KRNY
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.57%
Comparison:
KRNY, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -146.20% lower than the industry
& is -124.90% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
KRNY
Daily returns:
0.00%
Weekly returns:
-0.02%
Monthly returns:
-0.08%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -109.06% below industry average
Classification:
KRNY, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.17
Statistical test of Returns:
KRNY has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.28%
Weekly Volatility:
5.11%
Monthly Volatility:
10.22%
Yearly Volatility:
35.40%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.43%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -81.23% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.70%
Weekly VaR:
-10.50%
Monthly VaR:
-21.00%
How Much Can the price of
KRNY
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-19%
Worst case (decline):
-72.76%
This translates to price declining to:
$9.20
This translates to price declining to:
$3.08
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
KRNY is a 48.24% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 27.00% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -20.02% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
KRNY
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.77
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.602
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.852
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.509
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.363
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.592
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.995
Beta is -22.40% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -19.86% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
3.56%
Sustainable growth rate is -60.98% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.094
Alpha is -912.70% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -600% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
KRNY
Equity cost of capital:
0.084
Equity cost of capital is -13.44% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.56%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.21%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.32%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.32%
WACC is -31.01% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.07
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.76
Annual revenue growth rate is 81.28% above the industry average
EPS:
$1.02
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
28.23%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 134.85% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.00
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 39.67%
Equity growth rate per share is 2.45% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$10.57
EBITDA per share
$2.04
Valuation Analysis Today of
KRNY
P/E Ratio:
11.94
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
9.66
P/E ratio is 23.58% higher than main peers & is -3.80% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $12.66
KRNY is -10.64% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $46.90
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $12.34
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.68
Price to sales ratio is -13.95% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.76
Price to free cash flow: 11.34
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
223.47%
Net income growth rate is 305.77% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 9.85%
Dividend yeild: 3.80%
Previous Dividend: $0.11
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.11
Previous Dividend: $0.43
Expected next dividend best case: $0.12
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.10
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.09
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 4.79%
Expected next dividend payment date: 23/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/09/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 26/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 25/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/11/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 27/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-10--$0.11
2021-11-09--$0.11
2021-06-01--$0.10
2022-02-08--$0.11
2021-08-31--$0.10
2021-03-02--$0.09
Dividend growth rate is -79.67% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
71.07%
Net debt to equity ratio:
65.74%
Debt to assets ratio:
10.04%
Net debt to assets ratio:
9.28%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -93.97% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
4.59
Interest coverage ratio is 454.33% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-41.82%
Annual debt growth is -13305% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 35.10%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.449
Statistical significance of correlation:
KRNY has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -10.29% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.049
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.065
Kurtosis
3.383
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
0.163
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
KRNY
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
27.01%
Effective tax rate is 25.35% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
7.36%
Return on equity (ROE) is -38.31% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.04%
Return on assets (ROA) is -54.90% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.73%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
351.8K
Each employee generates -7% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
233.7K
Each employee generates 3% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
125.3K
Each employee generates -11% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
8.4K
Each employee generates -90% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
3.3M
Each employee generates -90% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
KRNY
SILVER SPIKE ACQUISITION II UNT (XNAS:SPKBU)
ATLANTICUS HOLDINGS CORPORATION (XNAS:ATLC)
FTOC
OXFORD LANE CAPITAL CORP. (XNAS:OXLC)
Calamos Conv Opp Inc (XNAS:CHI)
REPUBLIC BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:RBCAA)
ORIGIN BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:OBNK)
ZIONS BANCORPORATION, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION (XNAS:ZIONO)
AMERISAFE, INC (XNAS:AMSF)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�0%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
209.69M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
78.40M
80.34M
1.94M
-
-
224.49M
30.32M
6.70M
139.31M
-
74.66M
102.29M
27.63M
74.66M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.68M
Differed Income Tax :
3.12M
Stock Based Compensation :
2.04M
Change in Working Capital :
- 17523.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 179.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 1561.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 3619.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
5.41M
Investments in PP&E:
- 400.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 82000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
9/30/21
2022
Q1
54.07M
1.65B
1.71B
19.54M
-
3.50B
5.23B
55.24M
210.90M
3.52M
1.69B
-
-
1.96B
9.14B
7.18B
-
-
-
-
-
-
720.99M
-
720.99M
6.89B
6.17B
758.00K
420.70M
2.3M
590.63M
September 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
-
1.01B
7.18B
3.34B
720.99M
666.9M
100.49M
63.61M
81.70M
- 390000.00K
-
- 39085.00K
- 7356.00K
335.54M
- 100898.00K
-
- 13785.00K
54.07M
67.86M
5.41M
- 400.00K
5.01M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
KRNY
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$14.50
$15.25
$16.04
$16.88
$17.75