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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. (XNAS:KPTI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
KPTI
Name:
KARYOPHARM THERAPEUTICS INC. (XNAS:KPTI)
Sector:
- 59276.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
DR. Michael Kauffman
Total Employees:
442
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -24.25% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF KARYOPHARM THERAPEUTICS INC.(KPTI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
5.24
One Month Price Target:
$5.24
Six Month Price Target :
$5.23
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$5.22
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$5.19
Price Upper limit ($) :
$5.29
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$4.61
This week:
$3.83
This month :
$2.42
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
404.62M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
79.81M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
69.65%
-39.75%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$8.17
$6.84
$2.31
$3.64
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$6.40
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$6.12
$4.07
$4.36
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
KPTI
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.22%
Comparison:
KPTI, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -111.20% lower than the industry
& is -109.55% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
KPTI
Daily returns:
0.00%
Weekly returns:
-0.02%
Monthly returns:
-0.08%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -103.71% below industry average
Classification:
KPTI, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.81
Statistical test of Returns:
KPTI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.86%
Weekly Volatility:
13.09%
Monthly Volatility:
26.19%
Yearly Volatility:
90.71%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.43%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -75.52% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-12.03%
Weekly VaR:
-26.90%
Monthly VaR:
-53.80%
How Much Can the price of
KPTI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-48%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$2.74
This translates to price declining to:
$0.79
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
KPTI is a 279.70% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 225.29% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 23.16% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
KPTI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500---0.05
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.271
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.383
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.044
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.795
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.929
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.959
Beta is -105.21% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -104.34% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
416.20%
Sustainable growth rate is 693.61% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.037
Alpha is -126.39% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -238% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
KPTI
Equity cost of capital:
0.028
Equity cost of capital is -74.57% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-2.45%
Before-tax cost of debt:
15.33%
After-tax cost of debt:
12.11%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
12.11%
WACC is -6.15% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$2.93
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-5.03
Annual revenue growth rate is -26.28% below industry average
EPS:
-$1.42
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-19.98%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -300.18% lower than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$2.23
EBITDA per share
-$1.00
Valuation Analysis Today of
KPTI
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
8.24
-
-
KPTI is -104.11% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.79
Price to sales ratio is -95.59% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-5.03
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-47.48%
Net income growth rate is -167.27% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-213.99%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-32.48%
Debt to assets ratio:
60.46%
Net debt to assets ratio:
9.18%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 43.42% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-2.88
Interest coverage ratio is -97.57% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
29.10%
Annual debt growth is -78% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.247
Statistical significance of correlation:
KPTI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is -27.48% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.001
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.003
Kurtosis
34.926
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
2.177
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
KPTI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
390%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-34.36%
Operating profit margin is -91.98% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
390%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.23%
Effective tax rate is -104.05% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
130.08%
Return on equity (ROE) is -326.89% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-36.76%
Return on assets (ROA) is 80.15% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.5x
Current Ratio:
4.17
Current ratio is -48.50% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
39.1
Cash conversion cycle is -92.66% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-6.79%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
529.9K
Each employee generates -67% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 179.8K
Each employee generates -147% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 244.5K
Each employee generates -291% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 134.1K
Each employee generates -191% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
39.6K
Each employee generates -191% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 6.65%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -285.36% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
KPTI
Molecular Partners Ltd (XNAS:MOLN)
OMEGA THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:OMGA)
PHATHOM PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:PHAT)
RENALYTIX PLC (XNAS:RNLX)
LEXICON PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:LXRX)
Pardes Biosciences, Inc. (XNAS:PRDS)
Inventiva SA (XNAS:IVA)
DECIPHERA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:DCPH)
VBI Vaccines Inc. (XNAS:VBIV)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�21%
Hold�0%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
234.23M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
3.90M
230.33M
165.85M
38.77M
144.96M
-
-
310.82M
392.00K
27.64M
731.00K
- 79458.00K
- 80484.00K
- 108073.00K
- 107824.00K
249.00K
- 108073.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
177.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
7.34M
Change in Working Capital :
- 25552.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 2495.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
241.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 59197.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 79.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 35540.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
153.26M
52.06M
205.31M
24.99M
3.87M
42.36M
276.53M
9.06M
-
-
-
-
8.44M
17.50M
-
294.03M
3.44M
2.46M
-
-
60.43M
66.34M
177.78M
133.00M
310.78M
-
377.11M
8.00K
- 1220047.00K
87.0K
1.14B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
314.71M
- 83079.00K
294.03M
-
180.24M
27.0M
21.58M
-
- 14035.00K
-
29.32M
-
-
1.47M
30.78M
- 90.00K
- 42539.00K
154.91M
197.45M
- 59197.00K
- 79.00K
- 59276.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
KPTI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$5.25
$2.54
$2.54
$2.53
$2.52