_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (XNAS:KALU) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
KALU
Name:
KAISER ALUMINUM CORPORATION (XNAS:KALU)
Sector:
- 26900.00K
Industry:
Aluminum
CEO:
Mr. Jack Hockema
Total Employees:
4,015
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 316.70% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF KAISER ALUMINUM CORPORATION(KALU) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ALUMINUM INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
69.53
One Month Price Target:
$69.94
Six Month Price Target :
$71.99
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$74.45
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$69.13
Price Upper limit ($) :
$69.91
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$64.76
This week:
$58.86
This month :
$48.18
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.11B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
15.94M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.19%
-16.41%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$91.70
$81.65
$47.36
$57.41
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$78.38
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$76.23
$60.66
$62.83
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
KALU
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.74%
Comparison:
KALU, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -134.06% lower than the industry
& is -132.26% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
KALU
Daily returns:
-0.02%
Weekly returns:
-0.08%
Monthly returns:
-0.31%
Yearly returns:
26.90%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -113.98% below industry average
Classification:
KALU, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.46
Statistical test of Returns:
KALU has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.34%
Weekly Volatility:
7.46%
Monthly Volatility:
14.92%
Yearly Volatility:
51.67%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.10%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -67.08% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.87%
Weekly VaR:
-15.35%
Monthly VaR:
-30.71%
How Much Can the price of
KALU
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$50.52
This translates to price declining to:
$10.43
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
KALU is a 116.72% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 85.66% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -22.10% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
KALU
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.05
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.795
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.124
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.448
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.679
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.794
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.487
Beta is -29.18% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.971
Beta is -46.58% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.141
Alpha is -237.77% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -899% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
KALU
Equity cost of capital:
0.104
Equity cost of capital is -37.77% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.41%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.59%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.62%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.62%
WACC is -45.77% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$203.68
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.57
Annual revenue growth rate is 183.29% above the industry average
EPS:
-$0.95
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.95
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 30.01%
Equity growth rate per share is 200.00% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$67.58
EBITDA per share
$8.66
Valuation Analysis Today of
KALU
P/E Ratio:
438.96
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
21.13
P/E ratio is 1977.52% higher than main peers & is 1283.74% higher than the industry
-
KALU is -330.71% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $52.30
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $39.44
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.34
Price to sales ratio is -63.43% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.57
Price to free cash flow: 73.57
FALSE
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-121.17%
Net income growth rate is -420.81% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: -83.89%
Dividend yeild: 4.29%
Previous Dividend: $0.77
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.77
Previous Dividend: $2.98
Expected next dividend best case: $0.81
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.73
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.70
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.61%
Expected next dividend payment date: 08/11/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 25/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 07/06/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 13/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 25/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 04/07/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-22--$0.77
2021-10-22--$0.72
2021-04-22--$0.72
2022-01-21--$0.77
2021-07-22--$0.72
2021-01-22--$0.72
Dividend growth rate is 2.98% higher than the average industry
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
152.12%
Net debt to equity ratio:
115.26%
Debt to assets ratio:
42.39%
Net debt to assets ratio:
32.12%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -38.64% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
2.8
Interest coverage ratio is -29.85% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
24.71%
Annual debt growth is 74% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.05%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.475
Statistical significance of correlation:
KALU has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.476
Stock price is -0.29% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.476
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.029
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.055
Kurtosis
2.247
Returns are more concentrated around the mean (platykurtic), compared to a normal distribution
Skewness of returns:
0.019
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
KALU
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
23%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
2.24%
Operating profit margin is -162.81% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
23%
Effective Tax Rate:
11.31%
Effective tax rate is -66.69% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-2.10%
Return on equity (ROE) is -88.50% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-0.59%
Return on assets (ROA) is -88.57% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
2.38
Current ratio is 32.71% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
24.8
Cash conversion cycle is -50.92% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-26.85%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
808.7K
Each employee generates -15% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
34.4K
Each employee generates -65% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 3.7K
Each employee generates -121% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 6.7K
Each employee generates 269% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
303.9K
Each employee generates 269% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
KALU
INNOSPEC INC. (XNAS:IOSP)
SCHNITZER STEEL INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNAS:SCHN)
Green Plains Inc. (XNAS:GPRE)
METHANEX CORPORATION (XNAS:MEOH)
Largo Inc. (XNAS:LGO)
GEVO, INC. (XNAS:GEVO)
MERCER INTERNATIONAL INC. (XNAS:MERC)
PIEDMONT LITHIUM INC. (XNAS:PLL)
WD-40 COMPANY (XNAS:WDFC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�21%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
3.25B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
3.06B
189.80M
-
-
117.20M
-
-
117.20M
100.00K
49.40M
105.50M
138.10M
72.70M
- 14900.00K
- 16800.00K
- 1900.00K
- 14900.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
27.50M
Differed Income Tax :
2.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
4.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 41100.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 97100.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 2300.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
900.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
1.40M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
261.00M
-
261.00M
557.70M
431.50M
71.20M
1.32B
1.00B
39.30M
64.20M
-
3.20M
112.60M
1.22B
-
2.54B
442.80M
-
16.30M
-
111.80M
554.60M
1.08B
183.40M
1.28B
-
1.83B
200.00K
88.60M
14.3M
605.10M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
3.17B
708.20M
2.54B
-
1.08B
816.3M
-
- 28300.00K
- 28300.00K
- 500.00K
-
- 1900.00K
- 12500.00K
-
- 14900.00K
-
- 41800.00K
275.20M
317.00M
1.40M
- 28300.00K
- 26900.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
KALU
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$74.68
$79.97
$85.63
$91.68
$98.17