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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Juniper Networks, Inc. (XNYS:JNPR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
JNPR
Name:
JUNIPER NETWORKS, INC. (XNYS:JNPR)
Sector:
168.10M
Industry:
Communication Equipment
CEO:
Mr. Rami Rahim
Total Employees:
10,191
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 507.14% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF JUNIPER NETWORKS, INC.(JNPR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
28.01
One Month Price Target:
$28.15
Six Month Price Target :
$28.82
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$29.64
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$27.93
Price Upper limit ($) :
$28.12
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$26.89
This week:
$25.51
This month :
$23.
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
8.96B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
322.61M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.56%
-8.92%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$33.21
$30.82
$22.81
$25.20
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$30.04
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$29.53
$25.97
$26.49
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
JNPR
Sharpe Ratio:
1.67%
Comparison:
JNPR, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 28.95% higher than the industry
& is -26.66% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
JNPR
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.21%
Monthly returns:
0.83%
Yearly returns:
12.89%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -22.28% below industry average
Classification:
JNPR, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.96
Statistical test of Returns:
JNPR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.97%
Weekly Volatility:
4.40%
Monthly Volatility:
8.80%
Yearly Volatility:
30.47%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.57%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -70.96% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.00%
Weekly VaR:
-8.94%
Monthly VaR:
-17.88%
How Much Can the price of
JNPR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-15%
Worst case (decline):
-61.93%
This translates to price declining to:
$23.72
This translates to price declining to:
$10.66
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
JNPR is a 26.18% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 8.10% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -37.93% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
JNPR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.86
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.865
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.224
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.635
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.657
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.521
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.423
Beta is -39.22% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.197
Beta is -27.77% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.009
Alpha is -38.65% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 60% compared to market & is healthy
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
JNPR
Equity cost of capital:
0.091
Equity cost of capital is -20.06% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.67%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.09%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.65%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.65%
WACC is -10.84% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$14.97
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.12
Annual revenue growth rate is -30.86% below industry average
EPS:
$1.02
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-9.04%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -156.50% lower than the Communication Equipment industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.88
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 11.95%
Equity growth rate per share is -616.46% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$5.52
EBITDA per share
$2.05
Valuation Analysis Today of
JNPR
P/E Ratio:
23.69
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
16.08
P/E ratio is 47.35% higher than main peers & is -36.19% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $37.87
JNPR is -26.03% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $22.51
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $10.30
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.87
Price to sales ratio is -18.27% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.12
Price to free cash flow: 14.93
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-51.98%
Net income growth rate is -111.40% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 19.94%
Dividend yeild: 2.93%
Previous Dividend: $0.21
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.21
Previous Dividend: $0.82
Expected next dividend best case: $0.21
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.21
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.20
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.03%
Expected next dividend payment date: 20/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 30/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 22/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/01/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-05-31--$0.21
2021-11-30--$0.20
2021-05-28--$0.20
2022-02-28--$0.21
2021-08-31--$0.20
2021-02-26--$0.20
Dividend growth rate is 681.03% higher than the average industry
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
41.77%
Net debt to equity ratio:
18.02%
Debt to assets ratio:
20.19%
Net debt to assets ratio:
8.71%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -63.52% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
17.77
Interest coverage ratio is -51.26% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-20.16%
Annual debt growth is 99% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.673
Statistical significance of correlation:
JNPR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.552
Stock price is 21.90% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.552
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.044
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.05
Kurtosis
4.475
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.14
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
JNPR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
230%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
8.66%
Operating profit margin is 34.71% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
230%
Effective Tax Rate:
13.63%
Effective tax rate is -51.14% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
7.94%
Return on equity (ROE) is -77.15% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.84%
Return on assets (ROA) is -12.17% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
1.63
Current ratio is -26.52% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
39
Cash conversion cycle is -37.76% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
13.35%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
473.8K
Each employee generates -14% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
65.0K
Each employee generates -14% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
33.2K
Each employee generates 35% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
16.5K
Each employee generates -1146% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
568.1K
Each employee generates -1146% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 5.09%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -320.06% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
JNPR
CIENA CORPORATION (XNYS:CIEN)
ASANA, INC. (XNYS:ASAN)
SAMSARA INC. (XNYS:IOT)
SENTINELONE, INC. (XNYS:S)
ZENDESK, INC. (XNYS:ZEN)
Globant SA (XNYS:GLOB)
FAIR ISAAC CORPORATION (XNYS:FICO)
Elastic NV (XNYS:ESTC)
JABIL INC. (XNYS:JBL)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�17%
Hold�79%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
4.83B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.05B
2.77B
1.00B
248.20M
1.32B
1.07B
2.00M
2.32B
9.00M
37.30M
233.30M
662.80M
418.20M
338.60M
393.20M
53.60M
338.60M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
56.30M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
45.20M
Change in Working Capital :
19.00M
Accounts Receivables:
145.50M
Other Working Capital:
- 42200.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
16.90M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
193.10M
Investments in PP&E:
- 25000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 3300.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 67400.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.01B
293.40M
1.31B
848.80M
634.00M
248.80M
3.04B
842.50M
3.73B
215.60M
362.20M
-
635.40M
5.79B
-
8.83B
318.30M
-
-
967.00M
573.10M
1.86B
1.78B
420.90M
2.70B
-
4.56B
-
- 2677900.00K
11.7M
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
4.38B
4.27B
8.83B
655.60M
1.78B
768.8M
159.10M
500.00K
63.90M
-
28.60M
- 126300.00K
- 67500.00K
-
- 165200.00K
- 1700.00K
90.10M
1.03B
942.70M
193.10M
- 25000.00K
168.10M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
JNPR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$27.75
$29.36
$31.07
$32.87
$34.78