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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Jpmorgan Chase & Co. (XNYS:JPM) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
JPM
Name:
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. (XNYS:JPM)
Sector:
- 41917000.00K
Industry:
Banks�Diversified
CEO:
Mr. James Dimon
Total Employees:
278,494
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -95.85% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF JPMORGAN CHASE & CO.(JPM) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�DIVERSIFIED INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
113.71
One Month Price Target:
$114.4
Six Month Price Target :
$117.86
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$122.01
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$113.25
Price Upper limit ($) :
$114.18
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$108.04
This week:
$101.04
This month :
$88.37
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
334.18B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
2.94B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.01%
-14.96%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$140.01
$128.04
$87.41
$99.38
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$124.15
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$121.59
$103.24
$105.83
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
JPM
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.15%
Comparison:
JPM, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -122.87% lower than the industry
& is -106.48% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
JPM
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.03%
Monthly returns:
0.11%
Yearly returns:
6.86%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -81.59% below industry average
Classification:
JPM, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.32
Statistical test of Returns:
JPM has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.43%
Weekly Volatility:
5.43%
Monthly Volatility:
10.86%
Yearly Volatility:
37.62%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.64%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -73.69% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.98%
Weekly VaR:
-11.14%
Monthly VaR:
-22.28%
How Much Can the price of
JPM
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-77.18%
This translates to price declining to:
$91.37
This translates to price declining to:
$25.94
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
JPM is a 57.26% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 34.72% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -13.72% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
JPM
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.09
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.816
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.154
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.483
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.783
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.938
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.081
Beta is 0.55% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.341
Beta is -19.00% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
12.60%
Sustainable growth rate is 22.75% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.093
Alpha is 70.20% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -594% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
JPM
Equity cost of capital:
0.106
Equity cost of capital is -14.15% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.71%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.17%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.92%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.92%
WACC is -17.92% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$40.91
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.17
Annual revenue growth rate is 57.14% above the industry average
EPS:
$13.48
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
12.63%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 45.94% higher than the Banks�Diversified industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$26.55
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 45.10%
Equity growth rate per share is 107.52% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$148.97
EBITDA per share
$21.65
Valuation Analysis Today of
JPM
P/E Ratio:
9.13
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
20.45
P/E ratio is -55.36% lower than main peers & is -9.63% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $136.13
JPM is -16.47% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.78
Price to sales ratio is -25.53% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.17
Price to free cash flow: 4.28
Price to free cash flow ratio is -36.16% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
69.79%
Net income growth rate is 81.00% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 8.11%
Dividend yeild: 2.86%
Previous Dividend: $1.00
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.00
Previous Dividend: $3.25
Expected next dividend best case: $1.18
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.82
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.87
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 23.61%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/07/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 07/05/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 13/06/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 30/04/2022
Previous dividend record date: 04/06/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 15/03/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-05--$1.00
2021-11-12--$0.25
2021-07-02--$0.90
2022-01-05--$1.00
2021-10-05--$1.00
2021-04-05--$0.90
Dividend growth rate is -1309.66% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
153.03%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-90.74%
Debt to assets ratio:
11.06%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-6.56%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -87.85% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
10.97
Interest coverage ratio is 164.87% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
8.48%
Annual debt growth is -173% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.91%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.752
Statistical significance of correlation:
JPM has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.68
Stock price is 10.59% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.68
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.025
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.036
Kurtosis
10.55
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.422
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
JPM
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
66%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
90.55%
Operating profit margin is 151.78% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
66%
Effective Tax Rate:
18.51%
Effective tax rate is 21.17% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
14.80%
Return on equity (ROE) is 13.81% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.07%
Return on assets (ROA) is -5.45% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
431.4K
Each employee generates 3% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
228.3K
Each employee generates -1% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
151.9K
Each employee generates 1% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 150.5K
Each employee generates 123% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
4.3M
Each employee generates 123% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
JPM
VISA INC. (XNYS:V)
BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION (XNYS:BAC)
MASTERCARD INCORPORATED. (XNYS:MA)
Siemens AG (XSWX:SIN)
WELLS FARGO & COMPANY (XNYS:WFC)
MORGAN STANLEY (XNYS:MS)
THE CHARLES SCHWAB CORPORATION (XNYS:SCHW)
ROYAL BANK OF CANADA (XNYS:RY)
THE TORONTO-DOMINION BANK (XNYS:TD)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�38%
Hold�54%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
120.15B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
9.81B
19.47B
-
38.75B
41.96B
3.21B
- 6976000.00K
3.04B
59.09B
5.80B
5.86B
63.59B
108.80B
42.32B
51.93B
9.61B
42.32B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.82B
Differed Income Tax :
- 730000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 63861000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 49719000.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 80199000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
12.57B
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 41917000.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 58580000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
754.53B
312.88B
1067.41B
225.84B
-
-
-
26.92B
50.30B
8.19B
1117.35B
-
-
1202.75B
5157.44B
3954.69B
320.67B
57.59B
-
-
-
378.26B
437.52B
-
437.52B
3728.05B
3668.79B
4.11B
277.18B
- 9567000.0K
- 18654000.00K
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
12.85B
285.90B
3954.69B
1430.23B
495.11B
- 259427000.0K
37.77B
- 51802000.00K
- 72608000.00K
- 13094000.00K
-
- 4455000.00K
- 3430000.00K
153.75B
132.77B
- 4549000.00K
13.70B
754.53B
740.83B
- 41917000.00K
-
- 41917000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
JPM
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$122.62
$202.27
$217.04
$232.88
$249.88