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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Johnson Outdoors Inc. (XNAS:JOUT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
JOUT
Name:
JOHNSON OUTDOORS INC. (XNAS:JOUT)
Sector:
- 69017.00K
Industry:
Leisure
CEO:
Ms. Helen Johnson-Leipold
Total Employees:
1,400
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -231.00% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF JOHNSON OUTDOORS INC.(JOUT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND LEISURE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
59.28
One Month Price Target:
$59.57
Six Month Price Target :
$61.02
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$62.77
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$59.03
Price Upper limit ($) :
$59.53
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$56.26
This week:
$52.52
This month :
$45.75
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
584.95M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
10.17M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.41%
-15.23%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$73.33
$66.95
$45.23
$51.61
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$64.88
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$63.51
$53.67
$55.05
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
JOUT
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.62%
Comparison:
JOUT, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -135.04% lower than the industry
& is -127.30% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
JOUT
Daily returns:
-0.01%
Weekly returns:
-0.03%
Monthly returns:
-0.13%
Yearly returns:
16.56%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -109.55% below industry average
Classification:
JOUT, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.78
Statistical test of Returns:
JOUT has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.48%
Weekly Volatility:
5.55%
Monthly Volatility:
11.10%
Yearly Volatility:
38.44%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.40%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -43.76% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.10%
Weekly VaR:
-11.41%
Monthly VaR:
-22.82%
How Much Can the price of
JOUT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-79.05%
This translates to price declining to:
$47.27
This translates to price declining to:
$12.42
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
JOUT is a 61.06% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 37.98% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -25.77% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
JOUT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.88
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.661
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.935
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.82
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.409
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.615
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.902
Beta is -53.98% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.42
Beta is -38.36% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
14.23%
Sustainable growth rate is -66.48% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.107
Alpha is -391.60% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -683% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
JOUT
Equity cost of capital:
0.091
Equity cost of capital is -28.98% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.57%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.34%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.27%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.27%
WACC is 2.15% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$71.07
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.29
Annual revenue growth rate is -57.63% below industry average
EPS:
$5.57
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
12.66%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -58.84% lower than the Leisure industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 90.66%
Equity growth rate per share is 618.40% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$4.21
EBITDA per share
$8.96
Valuation Analysis Today of
JOUT
P/E Ratio:
14.44
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
115.78
P/E ratio is -87.53% lower than main peers & is -66.35% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $238.97
JOUT is -75.19% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $208.24
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $47.24
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.83
Price to sales ratio is -72.24% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.29
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
102.43%
Net income growth rate is -38.70% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 5.32%
Dividend yeild: 1.87%
Previous Dividend: $0.30
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.30
Previous Dividend: $1.11
Expected next dividend best case: $0.35
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.25
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.22
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 6.64%
Expected next dividend payment date: 27/07/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 25/05/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 28/04/2022
Previous dividend record date: 14/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 24/02/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-13--$0.30
2021-10-14--$0.30
2021-04-14--$0.21
2022-01-12--$0.30
2021-07-14--$0.21
2021-01-13--$0.21
Dividend growth rate is -468.99% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
9.18%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-25.51%
Debt to assets ratio:
6.37%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-17.70%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -90.11% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
552.3
Interest coverage ratio is 637.16% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
20.42%
Annual debt growth is -57% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.353
Statistical significance of correlation:
JOUT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.567
Stock price is -37.84% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.567
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.075
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.109
Kurtosis
4.414
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.116
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
JOUT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
162%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
11.19%
Operating profit margin is 156.60% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
162%
Effective Tax Rate:
27.06%
Effective tax rate is 34.02% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
12.10%
Return on equity (ROE) is -50.89% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
8.40%
Return on assets (ROA) is 32.40% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
3.8
Current ratio is 72.30% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
37.9
Cash conversion cycle is -41.90% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.99%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
516.4K
Each employee generates -30% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
65.1K
Each employee generates -55% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
40.3K
Each employee generates -45% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 49.3K
Each employee generates 71% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
132.8K
Each employee generates 71% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 4.38%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -65.27% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
JOUT
Franchise Group, Inc. (XNAS:FRG)
BJ'S RESTAURANTS, INC. (XNAS:BJRI)
BLINK CHARGING CO. (XNAS:BLNK)
THREDUP INC. (XNAS:TDUP)
HIBBETT, INC. (XNAS:HIBB)
LORDSTOWN MOTORS CORP (XNAS:RIDE)
GREEN BRICK PARTNERS, INC. (XNYS:GRBK)
FUNKO, INC. (XNAS:FNKO)
Playa Hotels & Resorts NV (XNAS:PLYA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�8%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/1/22
Revenue:
722.98M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
427.92M
295.06M
26.44M
51.36M
187.74M
136.38M
-
214.18M
399.00K
165.00K
13.56M
91.13M
80.88M
56.46M
77.40M
20.94M
56.46M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.49M
Differed Income Tax :
- 73.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
1.13M
Change in Working Capital :
- 78184.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 15525.00K
Other Working Capital:
358.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
10.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 62773.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/31/21
2022
Q1
167.47M
-
167.47M
86.69M
217.43M
14.82M
486.41M
121.51M
11.22M
8.57M
-
13.19M
31.47M
185.95M
-
672.35M
59.24M
5.65M
10.37M
-
63.12M
128.00M
42.82M
33.30M
77.74M
-
205.74M
510.00K
378.35M
7.0M
-
December 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
642.10M
466.61M
672.35M
-
48.46M
- 119010.0K
-
- 6244.00K
- 6244.00K
-
-
- 461.00K
- 3005.00K
-
- 3466.00K
- 492.00K
- 72975.00K
167.47M
240.45M
- 62773.00K
- 6244.00K
- 69017.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
JOUT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$63.08
$257.84
$273.01
$289.07
$306.07