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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Jetblue Airways Corporation (XNAS:JBLU) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
JBLU
Name:
JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORPORATION (XNAS:JBLU)
Sector:
113.00M
Industry:
Airlines
CEO:
Mr. Robin Hayes
Total Employees:
19,868
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 3.94% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORPORATION(JBLU) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND AIRLINES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
7.63
One Month Price Target:
$7.69
Six Month Price Target :
$8.01
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$8.38
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$7.57
Price Upper limit ($) :
$7.68
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$6.98
This week:
$6.17
This month :
$4.72
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.48B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
323.85M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
37.03%
-19.54%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$10.66
$9.29
$4.60
$5.97
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$8.84
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$8.55
$6.41
$6.71
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
JBLU
Sharpe Ratio:
-1.36%
Comparison:
JBLU, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 149.93% higher than the industry
& is -159.77% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
JBLU
Daily returns:
-0.05%
Weekly returns:
-0.24%
Monthly returns:
-0.95%
Yearly returns:
-3.24%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 251.80% above industry average
Classification:
JBLU, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.43
Statistical test of Returns:
JBLU has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.14%
Weekly Volatility:
9.25%
Monthly Volatility:
18.50%
Yearly Volatility:
64.07%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.53%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -62.92% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.54%
Weekly VaR:
-19.10%
Monthly VaR:
-38.20%
How Much Can the price of
JBLU
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-34%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$5.01
This translates to price declining to:
$1.14
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
JBLU is a 169.60% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 130.97% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -1.54% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
JBLU
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.47
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.916
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.295
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.855
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.92
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.871
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.221
Beta is 20.26% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.438
Beta is 2.13% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.246
Alpha is 51.53% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1567% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
JBLU
Equity cost of capital:
0.132
Equity cost of capital is 1.62% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.69%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.70%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.92%
Overall debt rating:
Upper medium A grade (third highest grade),CO8<=0.0429,"Medium BBB grade (Fourth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.92%
WACC is 15.48% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$21.74
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.69
Annual revenue growth rate is -14.27% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.59
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.45
-
-
Debt per share
$13.19
EBITDA per share
$1.30
Valuation Analysis Today of
JBLU
P/E Ratio:
12.52
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
90.54
P/E ratio is -86.17% lower than main peers & is -60.60% lower than the industry
-
JBLU is -140.70% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.35
Price to sales ratio is -66.94% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.69
Price to free cash flow: 3.12
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-194.78%
Net income growth rate is 71.92% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
118.70%
Net debt to equity ratio:
81.32%
Debt to assets ratio:
30.94%
Net debt to assets ratio:
21.20%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -53.17% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
2.39
Interest coverage ratio is 47.02% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.91%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.506
Statistical significance of correlation:
JBLU has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.536
Stock price is -5.69% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.536
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.014
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.034
Kurtosis
12.594
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.376
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
JBLU
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
39%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-2.17%
Operating profit margin is 1861.16% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
39%
Effective Tax Rate:
39.49%
Effective tax rate is 61.59% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-5.28%
Return on equity (ROE) is 711.50% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-1.38%
Return on assets (ROA) is -1416.62% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
0.81
Current ratio is -33.69% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-30.9
Cash conversion cycle is -160.71% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-5.79%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
354.4K
Each employee generates 14% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
21.1K
Each employee generates 11% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 9.6K
Each employee generates 112% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
5.7K
Each employee generates 108% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
530.0K
Each employee generates 108% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
JBLU
ROCKET LAB USA, INC. (XNAS:RKLB)
ANDAW
CHART INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNYS:GTLS)
Brighthouse Financial, Inc. (XNAS:BHFAL)
EXPONENT, INC. (XNAS:EXPO)
STERICYCLE, INC. (XNAS:SRCL)
CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:CWST)
AAON, INC. (XNAS:AAON)
BEACON ROOFING SUPPLY, INC. (XNAS:BECN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�21%
Hold�38%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
7.04B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
6.32B
724.00M
-
-
217.00M
217.00M
661.00M
878.00M
- 33000.00K
176.00M
558.00M
420.00M
- 153000.00K
- 190000.00K
- 314000.00K
- 124000.00K
- 190000.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
143.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 141000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
11.00M
Change in Working Capital :
489.00M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
489.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
247.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 49000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 353000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.83B
950.00M
2.78B
248.00M
68.00M
172.00M
3.27B
9.62B
-
-
110.00M
-
523.00M
10.53B
-
13.80B
624.00M
489.00M
-
1.94B
974.00M
4.03B
4.27B
551.00M
6.18B
-
10.21B
5.00M
2.53B
- 1000.0K
1.06B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
7.20B
3.60B
13.80B
1.06B
4.76B
2.9B
153.00M
- 85000.00K
- 334000.00K
- 83000.00K
-
- 6000.00K
-
-
- 89000.00K
-
- 176000.00K
1.90B
2.08B
247.00M
- 134000.00K
113.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
JBLU
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$8.41
$9.24
$10.15
$11.15
$12.25