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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Jack In The Box Inc. (XNAS:JACK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
JACK
Name:
JACK IN THE BOX INC. (XNAS:JACK)
Sector:
24.65M
Industry:
Restaurants
CEO:
Mr. Leonard Comma
Total Employees:
5,300
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 27.22% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF JACK IN THE BOX INC.(JACK) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND RESTAURANTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
80.76
One Month Price Target:
$81.53
Six Month Price Target :
$85.36
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$89.97
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$80.31
Price Upper limit ($) :
$81.33
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$74.68
This week:
$67.16
This month :
$53.55
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.56B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
21.06M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
27.%
-32.25%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$108.99
$96.02
$52.53
$65.50
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$91.80
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$89.03
$69.69
$72.49
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
JACK
Sharpe Ratio:
1.82%
Comparison:
JACK, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 10.12% higher than the industry
& is -20.37% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
JACK
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.38%
Monthly returns:
1.52%
Yearly returns:
16.01%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 14.04% above industry average
Classification:
JACK, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.47
Statistical test of Returns:
JACK has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.71%
Weekly Volatility:
8.29%
Monthly Volatility:
16.57%
Yearly Volatility:
57.40%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.39%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -89.49% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.53%
Weekly VaR:
-16.85%
Monthly VaR:
-33.69%
How Much Can the price of
JACK
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-29%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$57.40
This translates to price declining to:
$12.11
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
JACK is a 137.79% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 103.71% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 6.09% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
JACK
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.70
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.597
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.845
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-1.69
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.829
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.126
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.514
Beta is 12.06% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.354
Beta is 25.32% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.035
Alpha is -2.75% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 222% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
JACK
Equity cost of capital:
0.148
Equity cost of capital is 18.90% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-14.72%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.46%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.73%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.73%
WACC is -118.61% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$42.39
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-2.16
Annual revenue growth rate is 244.26% above the industry average
EPS:
$5.81
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
24.25%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 606.67% higher than the Restaurants industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$7.86
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 4.57%
Equity growth rate per share is -147.20% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$100.52
EBITDA per share
$13.92
Valuation Analysis Today of
JACK
P/E Ratio:
15.88
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
25.57
P/E ratio is -37.90% lower than main peers & is -32.88% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $137.47
JACK is -41.25% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $24.76
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $13.03
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.91
Price to sales ratio is -41.60% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-2.16
Price to free cash flow: 10.27
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
73.76%
Net income growth rate is -57.63% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 7.35%
Dividend yeild: 2.18%
Previous Dividend: $0.44
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.44
Previous Dividend: $1.76
Expected next dividend best case: $0.46
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.42
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.42
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.11%
Expected next dividend payment date: 20/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/05/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 22/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/07/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-06--$0.44
2021-12-08--$0.44
2021-05-25--$0.44
2022-03-08--$0.44
2021-08-17--$0.44
2021-03-02--$0.40
Dividend growth rate is -148.76% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-269.28%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-279.56%
Debt to assets ratio:
120.36%
Net debt to assets ratio:
124.96%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -23.63% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.74
Interest coverage ratio is -78.85% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
43.51%
Annual debt growth is 17% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.01%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.446
Statistical significance of correlation:
JACK has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.517
Stock price is -13.82% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.517
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.031
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.066
Kurtosis
21.142
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.366
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
JACK
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
105%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
27.80%
Operating profit margin is 195.68% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
105%
Effective Tax Rate:
25.60%
Effective tax rate is 47.39% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-16.03%
Return on equity (ROE) is -5109.29% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.17%
Return on assets (ROA) is -49.52% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
-4.9x
Current Ratio:
0.58
Current ratio is -47.92% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
9.9
Cash conversion cycle is -70.09% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.81%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
168.4K
Each employee generates 50% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
55.3K
Each employee generates 117% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
23.8K
Each employee generates 67% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
4.7K
Each employee generates 92% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
301.1K
Each employee generates 92% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
JACK
DAVE & BUSTER'S ENTERTAINMENT, INC. (XNAS:PLAY)
BLOOMIN' BRANDS, INC. (XNAS:BLMN)
XPEL, INC. (XNAS:XPEL)
ContextLogic Inc (XNAS:WISH)
PROTERRA INC (XNAS:PTRA)
REE AUTOMOTIVE LTD (XNAS:REE)
SLEEP NUMBER CORPORATION (XNAS:SNBR)
FARADAY FUTURE INTELLIGENT ELECTRIC INC. (XNAS:FFIE)
THE CHEESECAKE FACTORY INCORPORATED (XNAS:CAKE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�29%
Buy�13%
Hold�25%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/17/22
Revenue:
892.62M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
678.19M
214.43M
-
-
97.19M
-
34.46M
131.65M
210.00K
78.37M
45.27M
293.03M
248.12M
126.03M
169.38M
43.35M
126.03M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
12.50M
Differed Income Tax :
2.36M
Stock Based Compensation :
1.02M
Change in Working Capital :
- 22895.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
7.89M
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.81M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
34.05M
Investments in PP&E:
- 9401.00K
Net Acquisitions:
48.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
1/23/22
2022
Q1
70.21M
-
70.21M
55.22M
2.69M
34.44M
162.56M
1.27B
48.05M
403.00K
-
48.34M
228.54M
1.60B
-
1.76B
22.46M
151.00M
10.23M
4.02M
100.43M
277.91M
2.12B
115.44M
2.27B
-
2.54B
826.00K
1.79B
- 73516.0K
- 2507736.00K
January 23, 2022 at 7:00:00 AM
809.84M
- 786064.00K
1.76B
-
2.27B
2.2B
-
2.52M
- 6837.00K
- 223.00K
49.00K
-
- 9257.00K
- 2885.00K
- 12316.00K
-
14.90M
88.47M
73.57M
34.05M
- 9401.00K
24.65M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
JACK
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$90.42
$145.98
$162.62
$181.16
$201.81