_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Jabil Inc. (XNYS:JBL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
JBL
Name:
JABIL INC. (XNYS:JBL)
Sector:
- 327000.00K
Industry:
Electronic Components
CEO:
Mr. Mark Mondello
Total Employees:
238,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -73.24% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF JABIL INC.(JBL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
57.81
One Month Price Target:
$58.27
Six Month Price Target :
$60.55
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$63.28
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$57.59
Price Upper limit ($) :
$58.14
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$54.57
This week:
$50.56
This month :
$43.32
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
7.86B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
137.55M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.58%
-14.09%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$72.84
$65.88
$42.78
$49.74
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$63.62
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$62.14
$51.98
$53.48
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
JBL
Sharpe Ratio:
3.04%
Comparison:
JBL, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 49.76% higher than the industry
& ratio is 33.29% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
JBL
Daily returns:
0.09%
Weekly returns:
0.47%
Monthly returns:
1.86%
Yearly returns:
15.78%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 41.70% above industry average
Classification:
JBL, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.89
Statistical test of Returns:
JBL has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.77%
Weekly Volatility:
6.20%
Monthly Volatility:
12.41%
Yearly Volatility:
42.98%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.12%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -59.46% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.60%
Weekly VaR:
-12.53%
Monthly VaR:
-25.07%
How Much Can the price of
JBL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-21%
Worst case (decline):
-86.83%
This translates to price declining to:
$45.61
This translates to price declining to:
$7.61
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
JBL is a 76.91% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 51.56% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 4.38% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
JBL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.41
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.788
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.114
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.716
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.111
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.936
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.416
Beta is -0.47% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.174
Beta is 20.06% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
32.23%
Sustainable growth rate is 111.61% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.095
Alpha is 108.30% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 608% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
JBL
Equity cost of capital:
0.128
Equity cost of capital is 14.41% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.51%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.06%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.21%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.21%
WACC is 18.43% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$231.60
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.6
Annual revenue growth rate is 127.37% above the industry average
EPS:
$5.83
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
43.18%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 118.04% higher than the Electronic Components industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.13
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 0.24%
Equity growth rate per share is -104.90% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$20.22
EBITDA per share
$14.32
Valuation Analysis Today of
JBL
P/E Ratio:
9.91
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
10.56
P/E ratio is -6.19% lower than main peers & is -58.68% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $139.82
JBL is -58.65% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $13.62
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $2.50
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.25
Price to sales ratio is -90.51% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.6
Price to free cash flow: 51.20
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
834.78%
Net income growth rate is 343.40% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 1.64%
Dividend yeild: 0.55%
Previous Dividend: $0.08
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.08
Previous Dividend: $0.32
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.08
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 31/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 20/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/02/2022
Previous dividend record date: 16/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 21/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-13--$0.08
2021-11-12--$0.08
2021-05-13--$0.08
2022-02-14--$0.08
2021-08-12--$0.08
2021-02-11--$0.08
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
126.11%
Net debt to equity ratio:
98.10%
Debt to assets ratio:
15.82%
Net debt to assets ratio:
12.30%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -70.52% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
14.29
Interest coverage ratio is 3.14% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
5.66%
Annual debt growth is -1008% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 17.10%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.784
Statistical significance of correlation:
JBL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.614
Stock price is 27.62% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.614
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.032
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.052
Kurtosis
4.668
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.397
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
JBL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
31%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
3.92%
Operating profit margin is -54.72% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
31%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.31%
Effective tax rate is 56.49% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
38.78%
Return on equity (ROE) is 124.54% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.86%
Return on assets (ROA) is -30.49% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
0.99
Current ratio is -61.45% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-22.2
Cash conversion cycle is -130.99% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
133.9K
Each employee generates -25% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
8.3K
Each employee generates -71% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
3.6K
Each employee generates -78% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 1.4K
Each employee generates -50% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
24.3K
Each employee generates -50% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -22.98%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 363.02% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
JBL
Elastic NV (XNYS:ESTC)
SENSATA TECHNOLOGIES HOLDING PLC (XNYS:ST)
GENPACT LIMITED (XNYS:G)
TD SYNNEX CORPORATION (XNYS:SNX)
AVALARA, INC. (XNYS:AVLR)
PROCORE TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNYS:PCOR)
ARROW ELECTRONICS, INC. (XNYS:ARW)
Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd (XNYS:YMM)
JUNIPER NETWORKS, INC. (XNYS:JNPR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�17%
Hold�25%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
5/31/22
Revenue:
31.86B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
29.37B
2.49B
31.86M
-
1.17B
-
27.84M
1.23B
2.90M
137.83M
999.26M
1.97B
1.25B
855.42M
1.12B
260.14M
855.42M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
269.00M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 556000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 153000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 46000.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 281000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
11/30/21
2022
Q1
1.23B
-
1.23B
5.05B
4.68B
852.00M
11.81B
4.45B
713.00M
173.00M
-
176.00M
268.00M
5.78B
-
17.59B
7.48B
611.00M
189.00M
667.00M
3.20B
11.97B
2.78B
408.00M
3.42B
-
15.38B
-
2.92B
- 48000.0K
-
November 30, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
30.60B
2.21B
17.59B
-
3.39B
2.2B
-
208.00M
- 73000.00K
- 574000.00K
-
- 127000.00K
- 14000.00K
507.00M
- 208000.00K
- 11000.00K
- 338000.00K
1.23B
1.57B
- 46000.00K
- 281000.00K
- 327000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
JBL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$63.60
$90.07
$98.60
$107.94
$118.16