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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
J. B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (XNAS:JBHT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
JBHT
Name:
J. B. HUNT TRANSPORT SERVICES, INC. (XNAS:JBHT)
Sector:
- 17553.00K
Industry:
Integrated Freight & Logistics
CEO:
Mr. John Roberts
Total Employees:
33,045
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 14.05% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF J. B. HUNT TRANSPORT SERVICES, INC.(JBHT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
168.74
One Month Price Target:
$169.8
Six Month Price Target :
$175.11
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$181.48
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$168.27
Price Upper limit ($) :
$169.5
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$161.45
This week:
$152.43
This month :
$136.12
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
17.52B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
103.81M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.15%
-14.23%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$202.56
$186.87
$134.92
$150.61
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$181.76
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$178.41
$155.68
$159.07
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
JBHT
Sharpe Ratio:
3.48%
Comparison:
JBHT, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 11.03% higher than the industry
& ratio is 52.72% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
JBHT
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.42%
Monthly returns:
1.67%
Yearly returns:
21.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -5.51% below industry average
Classification:
JBHT, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.68
Statistical test of Returns:
JBHT has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.15%
Weekly Volatility:
4.80%
Monthly Volatility:
9.59%
Yearly Volatility:
33.24%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.28%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -40.36% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.32%
Weekly VaR:
-9.67%
Monthly VaR:
-19.33%
How Much Can the price of
JBHT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-66.97%
This translates to price declining to:
$141.51
This translates to price declining to:
$55.74
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
JBHT is a 36.44% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 16.89% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -14.57% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
JBHT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.12
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.754
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.066
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.92
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.655
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.661
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.384
Beta is -18.85% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.068
Beta is 5.20% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
21.60%
Sustainable growth rate is -21.74% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.092
Alpha is -14.41% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 586% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
JBHT
Equity cost of capital:
0.108
Equity cost of capital is 3.64% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.88%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.57%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.82%
Overall debt rating:
Upper medium A grade (third highest grade),CO8<=0.0429,"Medium BBB grade (Fourth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.82%
WACC is 19.26% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$125.60
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
5.38
Annual revenue growth rate is -51.71% below industry average
EPS:
$8.06
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
13.67%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -64.08% lower than the Integrated Freight & Logistics industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.03
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 22.60%
Equity growth rate per share is 258.71% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$9.11
EBITDA per share
$16.77
Valuation Analysis Today of
JBHT
P/E Ratio:
19.02
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
40.08
P/E ratio is -52.55% lower than main peers & is 18.55% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $129.30
JBHT is 30.50% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $47.56
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $24.28
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.34
Price to sales ratio is -15.37% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
5.38
Price to free cash flow: 6198.54
Price to free cash flow ratio is -52.87% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
60.75%
Net income growth rate is -71.95% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 4.89%
Dividend yeild: 0.83%
Previous Dividend: $0.40
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.40
Previous Dividend: $1.40
Expected next dividend best case: $0.44
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.36
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.30
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 4.80%
Expected next dividend payment date: 25/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/11/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 27/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 27/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 13/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 28/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-12--$0.40
2021-11-04--$0.30
2021-05-06--$0.30
2022-02-03--$0.40
2021-08-05--$0.30
2021-02-04--$0.28
Dividend growth rate is -284.98% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
29.06%
Net debt to equity ratio:
35.42%
Debt to assets ratio:
13.45%
Net debt to assets ratio:
16.39%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -93.01% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
37.58
Interest coverage ratio is 2.85% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.647
Statistical significance of correlation:
JBHT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.551
Stock price is 17.34% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.551
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.007
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.009
Kurtosis
7.517
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.133
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
JBHT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
62%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
8.99%
Operating profit margin is 83.47% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
62%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.83%
Effective tax rate is 1.89% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
26.36%
Return on equity (ROE) is -18.29% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
12.19%
Return on assets (ROA) is -279.39% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
1.27
Current ratio is -38.97% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
18
Cash conversion cycle is -96.85% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.23%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
394.6K
Each employee generates -61% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
52.7K
Each employee generates -21% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
26.0K
Each employee generates -4% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 0.5K
Each employee generates -105% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
144.1K
Each employee generates -105% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
JBHT
EXPEDITORS INTERNATIONAL OF WASHINGTON, INC (XNAS:EXPD)
RYANAIR HOLDINGS PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:RYAAY)
BNGOW
Kanzhun Ltd (XNAS:BZ)
ICAHN ENTERPRISES UNT (XNAS:IEP)
BUILDERS FIRSTSOURCE, INC. (XNYS:BLDR)
PLUG POWER INC. (XNAS:PLUG)
C.H. ROBINSON WORLDWIDE, INC. (XNAS:CHRW)
NORDSON CORPORATION (XNAS:NDSN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�29%
Buy�25%
Hold�38%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
13.04B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
11.01B
2.02B
-
395.91M
395.91M
-
455.93M
851.84M
-
46.32M
568.31M
1.74B
1.17B
857.53M
1.13B
268.33M
857.53M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
148.76M
Differed Income Tax :
8.29M
Stock Based Compensation :
19.14M
Change in Working Capital :
- 128928.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 232920.00K
Other Working Capital:
33.69M
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.20M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
291.79M
Investments in PP&E:
- 309338.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 86939.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
144.53M
-
144.53M
1.75B
-
379.62M
2.27B
4.23B
-
-
-
-
286.25M
4.76B
-
7.03B
854.88M
351.21M
-
-
578.64M
1.78B
945.63M
294.31M
1.99B
-
3.78B
-
-
-
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
11.87B
3.25B
7.03B
-
1.30B
1.2B
-
20.21M
- 376065.00K
-
-
- 84800.00K
- 41940.00K
-
- 126740.00K
-
- 211020.00K
144.53M
355.55M
291.79M
- 309338.00K
- 17553.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
JBHT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$182.39
$267.56
$287.76
$309.48
$332.83