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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
J & J Snack Foods Corp. (XNAS:JJSF) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
JJSF
Name:
J & J SNACK FOODS CORP. (XNAS:JJSF)
Sector:
- 10646.00K
Industry:
Packaged Foods
CEO:
Mr. Gerald Shreiber
Total Employees:
4,300
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -141.18% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF J & J SNACK FOODS CORP.(JJSF) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND PACKAGED FOODS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
144.51
One Month Price Target:
$144.83
Six Month Price Target :
$146.44
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$148.38
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$143.91
Price Upper limit ($) :
$145.09
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$137.38
This week:
$128.56
This month :
$112.6
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.70B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
19.19M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.99%
-18.39%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$177.64
$162.61
$111.38
$126.41
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$157.72
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$154.51
$131.26
$134.51
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
JJSF
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.73%
Comparison:
JJSF, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -155.34% lower than the industry
& is -131.82% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
JJSF
Daily returns:
-0.01%
Weekly returns:
-0.04%
Monthly returns:
-0.17%
Yearly returns:
8.42%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -124.39% below industry average
Classification:
JJSF, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.34
Statistical test of Returns:
JJSF has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.40%
Weekly Volatility:
5.37%
Monthly Volatility:
10.73%
Yearly Volatility:
37.18%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.76%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -68.15% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.94%
Weekly VaR:
-11.04%
Monthly VaR:
-22.08%
How Much Can the price of
JJSF
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-76.48%
This translates to price declining to:
$116.15
This translates to price declining to:
$33.98
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
JJSF is a 55.83% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 33.50% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 4.91% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
JJSF
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.40
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.588
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.831
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.383
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.468
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.88
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.879
Beta is -54.70% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.586
Beta is -32.05% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
2.12%
Sustainable growth rate is -76.58% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.079
Alpha is -731.83% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -505% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
JJSF
Equity cost of capital:
0.059
Equity cost of capital is -17.96% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.65%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.12%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.09%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.09%
WACC is -1.61% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$65.00
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.28
Annual revenue growth rate is -103.19% below industry average
EPS:
$3.24
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-12.38%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -168.65% lower than the Packaged Foods industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 33.17%
Equity growth rate per share is 583.16% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$2.41
EBITDA per share
$6.90
Valuation Analysis Today of
JJSF
P/E Ratio:
56.84
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
85.88
P/E ratio is -33.81% lower than main peers & is 47.10% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $125.19
JJSF is 15.43% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $79.61
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $52.55
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.22
Price to sales ratio is -4.12% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.28
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is 250.14% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-47.22%
Net income growth rate is -538.96% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 19.44%
Dividend yeild: 1.75%
Previous Dividend: $0.63
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.63
Previous Dividend: $2.53
Expected next dividend best case: $0.66
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.61
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.60
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.01%
Expected next dividend payment date: 10/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 19/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/11/2022
Previous dividend record date: 20/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-16--$0.63
2021-12-17--$0.63
2021-06-18--$0.63
2022-03-21--$0.63
2021-09-17--$0.63
2021-03-19--$0.58
Dividend growth rate is -378.60% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
5.48%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-24.64%
Debt to assets ratio:
4.17%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-18.75%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -92.27% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
1864.39
Interest coverage ratio is 656.00% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-1.71%
Annual debt growth is -101% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.16%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.479
Statistical significance of correlation:
JJSF has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.429
Stock price is 11.66% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.429
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.026
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.037
Kurtosis
13.317
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.434
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
JJSF
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
106%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
6.60%
Operating profit margin is 36.76% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
106%
Effective Tax Rate:
25.65%
Effective tax rate is -37.06% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
7.34%
Return on equity (ROE) is -33.52% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.59%
Return on assets (ROA) is 25.12% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
3.64
Current ratio is 32.83% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
24.8
Cash conversion cycle is -49.57% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.74%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
290.1K
Each employee generates -63% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
30.8K
Each employee generates -73% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
14.4K
Each employee generates -72% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 2.5K
Each employee generates -33% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
124.6K
Each employee generates -33% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
JJSF
CENTRAL GARDEN & PET COMPANY (XNAS:CENTA)
CENTRAL GARDEN & PET COMPANY (XNAS:CENT)
THE SIMPLY GOOD FOODS COMPANY (XNAS:SMPL)
CELSIUS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CELH)
2U, INC. (XNAS:TWOU)
LAUREATE EDUCATION, INC. (XNAS:LAUR)
PRICESMART, INC. (XNAS:PSMT)
COCA-COLA CONSOLIDATED, INC. (XNAS:COKE)
SANDERSON FARMS, INC. (XNAS:SAFM)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/26/22
Revenue:
1.25B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
914.78M
332.63M
-
44.01M
249.01M
205.00M
-
249.01M
12.00K
71.00K
48.73M
132.37M
82.34M
62.13M
83.57M
21.44M
62.13M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
12.51M
Differed Income Tax :
- 529.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
1.08M
Change in Working Capital :
- 18715.00K
Accounts Receivables:
231.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
13.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
5.45M
Investments in PP&E:
- 16100.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/25/21
2022
Q1
268.46M
5.51M
273.97M
162.59M
132.72M
6.77M
576.05M
325.19M
121.83M
77.19M
9.37M
-
2.28M
535.86M
-
1.11B
91.01M
13.66M
-
-
53.43M
158.10M
46.32M
425.00K
107.81M
-
265.91M
75.39M
784.44M
- 13827.0K
-
December 25, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
1.16B
846.00M
1.11B
14.87M
59.98M
- 208478.0K
7.20M
231.00K
- 8669.00K
- 74.00K
706.00K
-
- 12080.00K
-
- 11448.00K
- 69.00K
- 14732.00K
268.46M
283.19M
5.45M
- 16100.00K
- 10646.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
JJSF
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$149.12
$199.21
$204.54
$210.02
$215.63