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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Itt Inc. (XNYS:ITT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ITT
Name:
ITT INC. (XNYS:ITT)
Sector:
- 32800.00K
Industry:
Specialty Industrial Machinery
CEO:
Mr. Luca Savi
Total Employees:
9,900
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -13.21% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ITT INC.(ITT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SPECIALTY INDUSTRIAL MACHINERY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
71.98
One Month Price Target:
$72.57
Six Month Price Target :
$75.5
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$79.02
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$71.7
Price Upper limit ($) :
$72.3
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$68.33
This week:
$63.82
This month :
$55.67
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.96B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
82.70M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.64%
-15.58%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$88.91
$81.17
$55.05
$62.79
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$78.65
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$76.99
$65.29
$66.97
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ITT
Sharpe Ratio:
0.82%
Comparison:
ITT, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -56.79% lower than the industry
& is -64.08% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ITT
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.15%
Monthly returns:
0.58%
Yearly returns:
16.25%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -56.92% below industry average
Classification:
ITT, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.67
Statistical test of Returns:
ITT has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.48%
Weekly Volatility:
5.55%
Monthly Volatility:
11.10%
Yearly Volatility:
38.44%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.79%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -68.32% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.07%
Weekly VaR:
-11.33%
Monthly VaR:
-22.66%
How Much Can the price of
ITT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-78.50%
This translates to price declining to:
$57.79
This translates to price declining to:
$15.48
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ITT is a 59.94% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 37.02% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -9.30% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ITT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.45
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.814
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.152
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.425
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.898
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.88
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.406
Beta is 3.49% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.281
Beta is 13.51% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
11.33%
Sustainable growth rate is -23.89% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.061
Alpha is -241.51% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -389% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ITT
Equity cost of capital:
0.131
Equity cost of capital is 9.94% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
12.85%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-0.03%
After-tax cost of debt:
-0.03%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-0.03%
WACC is -71.36% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$33.77
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.85
Annual revenue growth rate is -86.72% below industry average
EPS:
$3.54
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-0.63%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -120.75% lower than the Specialty Industrial Machinery industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 63.42%
Equity growth rate per share is 487.55% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$0.84
EBITDA per share
$7.27
Valuation Analysis Today of
ITT
P/E Ratio:
18.11
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
42.84
P/E ratio is -57.73% lower than main peers & is -34.18% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $97.40
ITT is -26.10% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $36.32
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $15.61
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.13
Price to sales ratio is -48.63% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.85
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-3.34%
Net income growth rate is -348.18% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 7.35%
Dividend yeild: 1.34%
Previous Dividend: $0.26
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.26
Previous Dividend: $0.97
Expected next dividend best case: $0.30
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.23
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.20
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 6.51%
Expected next dividend payment date: 10/03/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 17/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-16--$0.26
2021-12-10--$0.22
2021-06-18--$0.22
2022-03-08--$0.26
2021-09-10--$0.22
2021-03-16--$0.22
Dividend growth rate is 86.69% higher than the average industry
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
3.34%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-6.49%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.87%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-3.63%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -96.54% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-3005
Interest coverage ratio is -15497.74% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
108.88%
Annual debt growth is 46% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.785
Statistical significance of correlation:
ITT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.635
Stock price is 23.54% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.635
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.013
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.018
Kurtosis
7.741
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.203
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ITT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
127%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
17.51%
Operating profit margin is -172.30% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
127%
Effective Tax Rate:
37.43%
Effective tax rate is 100.29% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
14.62%
Return on equity (ROE) is 335.24% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
8.18%
Return on assets (ROA) is 74.38% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
1.53
Current ratio is -49.25% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
21
Cash conversion cycle is -65.84% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.21%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
282.1K
Each employee generates -93% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
60.7K
Each employee generates -92% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
30.8K
Each employee generates -92% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 3.3K
Each employee generates -106% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
183.9K
Each employee generates -106% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 11.78%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 9.12% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
ITT
DUN & BRADSTREET HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:DNB)
Vertiv Holdings Co (XNYS:VRT)
ADVANCED DRAINAGE SYSTEMS, INC. (XNYS:WMS)
OWENS CORNING (XNYS:OC)
AGCO CORPORATION (XNYS:AGCO)
CAE Inc. (XNYS:CAE)
OSHKOSH CORPORATION (XNYS:OSK)
TOPBUILD CORP. (XNYS:BLD)
SITEONE LANDSCAPE SUPPLY, INC. (XNYS:SITE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�21%
Hold�8%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/2/22
Revenue:
2.79B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.90B
888.90M
95.60M
222.60M
375.10M
152.50M
12.00M
482.70M
-
- 200.00K
111.90M
601.00M
489.00M
304.90M
492.70M
184.40M
304.90M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
27.30M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
3.70M
Change in Working Capital :
- 118700.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 70700.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 14100.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
10.10M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 2800.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/2/22
2022
Q1
710.40M
-
710.40M
637.80M
475.60M
80.70M
1.90B
580.20M
918.50M
95.70M
15.20M
61.80M
149.70M
1.82B
-
3.73B
411.00M
505.50M
37.30M
82.60M
243.20M
1.24B
69.60M
295.00M
393.10M
-
1.64B
83.60M
2.33B
- 333300.0K
-
April 2, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.39B
2.08B
3.72B
-
575.10M
- 135300.0K
-
- 29400.00K
- 29400.00K
-
-
- 172300.00K
- 22400.00K
291.30M
96.60M
- 1500.00K
62.90M
711.20M
648.30M
- 2800.00K
- 30000.00K
- 32800.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ITT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$79.42
$113.05
$124.10
$136.23
$149.55