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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Itron, Inc. (XNAS:ITRI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ITRI
Name:
ITRON, INC. (XNAS:ITRI)
Sector:
2.22M
Industry:
Scientific & Technical Instruments
CEO:
Mr. Thomas Deitrich
Total Employees:
5,635
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -104.06% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ITRON, INC.(ITRI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SCIENTIFIC & TECHNICAL INSTRUMENTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
47.61
One Month Price Target:
$47.95
Six Month Price Target :
$49.66
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$51.71
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$47.31
Price Upper limit ($) :
$47.89
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$44.08
This week:
$39.72
This month :
$31.83
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.10B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
45.06M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
22.52%
-26.44%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$64.00
$56.56
$31.22
$38.66
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$54.14
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$52.56
$41.06
$42.66
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ITRI
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.63%
Comparison:
ITRI, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -146.35% lower than the industry
& is -127.62% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ITRI
Daily returns:
-0.01%
Weekly returns:
-0.07%
Monthly returns:
-0.28%
Yearly returns:
11.06%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -129.98% below industry average
Classification:
ITRI, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.76
Statistical test of Returns:
ITRI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.60%
Weekly Volatility:
8.05%
Monthly Volatility:
16.11%
Yearly Volatility:
55.80%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.92%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -74.57% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.41%
Weekly VaR:
-16.57%
Monthly VaR:
-33.14%
How Much Can the price of
ITRI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-29%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$33.58
This translates to price declining to:
$7.14
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ITRI is a 133.91% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 100.39% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 30.72% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ITRI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.28
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.885
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.252
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.995
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.692
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.909
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.302
Beta is -1.54% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.276
Beta is 0.46% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.152
Alpha is 1748.80% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -971% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ITRI
Equity cost of capital:
0.119
Equity cost of capital is 0.34% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.26%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.91%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.09%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.09%
WACC is 4.69% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$42.99
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.81
Annual revenue growth rate is -272.24% below industry average
EPS:
-$2.06
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.90
-
-
Debt per share
$11.21
EBITDA per share
-$0.90
Valuation Analysis Today of
ITRI
P/E Ratio:
952.63
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
214.77
P/E ratio is 343.56% higher than main peers & is 2096.60% higher than the industry
-
ITRI is -153.29% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.11
Price to sales ratio is -77.26% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.81
Price to free cash flow: 25.01
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-28.98%
Net income growth rate is 6.48% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
43.54%
Net debt to equity ratio:
25.96%
Debt to assets ratio:
20.87%
Net debt to assets ratio:
12.44%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -55.86% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-2.04
Interest coverage ratio is -117.72% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-48.62%
Annual debt growth is -162% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.416
Statistical significance of correlation:
ITRI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.619
Stock price is -32.86% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.619
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.031
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.064
Kurtosis
11.413
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.866
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ITRI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
112%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-5.34%
Operating profit margin is -150.69% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
112%
Effective Tax Rate:
33.73%
Effective tax rate is -15.86% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-8.01%
Return on equity (ROE) is -141.65% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-3.84%
Return on assets (ROA) is -171.60% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
1.58
Current ratio is -32.97% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
15.5
Cash conversion cycle is -72.06% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-6.59%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
343.8K
Each employee generates 7% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 7.2K
Each employee generates -111% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 16.5K
Each employee generates -148% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
0.4K
Each employee generates -90% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
288.8K
Each employee generates -90% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 1.61%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -45.60% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
ITRI
TENABLE HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:TENB)
Jamf Holding Corp. (XNAS:JAMF)
SUNPOWER CORPORATION (XNAS:SPWR)
QUALYS, INC. (XNAS:QLYS)
VICOR CORPORATION (XNAS:VICR)
COMMSCOPE HOLDING COMPANY, INC. (XNAS:COMM)
SABRE CORPORATION (XNAS:SABR)
RAPID7, INC. (XNAS:RPD)
VIAVI SOLUTIONS INC. (XNAS:VIAV)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�8%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.94B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.40B
541.35M
195.10M
-
300.93M
-
33.38M
529.41M
1.23M
19.76M
79.18M
- 40331.00K
- 103420.00K
- 92952.00K
- 137296.00K
- 46314.00K
- 92952.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
16.84M
Differed Income Tax :
- 4362.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
6.13M
Change in Working Capital :
- 19607.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 8816.00K
Other Working Capital:
22.46M
Other Non-Cash Items:
7.70M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
7.59M
Investments in PP&E:
- 5369.00K
Net Acquisitions:
55.96M
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
204.00M
-
204.00M
303.25M
171.26M
114.02M
792.53M
219.87M
1.09B
85.51M
-
186.13M
43.88M
1.63B
-
2.42B
203.48M
-
18.58M
118.81M
179.29M
501.57M
505.13M
224.41M
731.50M
-
1.23B
1.77B
- 514694.00K
- 95283.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.93B
1.16B
2.39B
-
505.13M
301.1M
-
362.00K
50.95M
-
784.00K
- 16972.00K
-
- 917.00K
- 17105.00K
- 17.00K
41.42M
204.00M
162.58M
7.59M
- 5369.00K
2.22M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ITRI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$51.87
$56.34
$61.19
$66.46
$72.19