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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Irobot Corporation (XNAS:IRBT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
IRBT
Name:
IROBOT CORPORATION (XNAS:IRBT)
Sector:
- 105428.00K
Industry:
Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances
CEO:
Mr. Colin Angle
Total Employees:
1,438
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -47.56% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF IROBOT CORPORATION(IRBT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND FURNISHINGS, FIXTURES & APPLIANCES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
59.03
One Month Price Target:
$59.46
Six Month Price Target :
$61.63
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$64.23
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$58.71
Price Upper limit ($) :
$59.48
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$54.43
This week:
$48.75
This month :
$38.47
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.60B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
27.23M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
27.5%
-24.3%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$80.36
$70.52
$37.70
$47.54
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$67.31
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$65.21
$50.72
$52.85
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
IRBT
Sharpe Ratio:
2.60%
Comparison:
IRBT, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 134.15% higher than the industry
& ratio is 14.22% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
IRBT
Daily returns:
0.11%
Weekly returns:
0.54%
Monthly returns:
2.18%
Yearly returns:
14.35%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 82.24% above industry average
Classification:
IRBT, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.68
Statistical test of Returns:
IRBT has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.85%
Weekly Volatility:
8.60%
Monthly Volatility:
17.20%
Yearly Volatility:
59.58%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.38%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -90.23% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.79%
Weekly VaR:
-17.42%
Monthly VaR:
-34.83%
How Much Can the price of
IRBT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-30%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$41.58
This translates to price declining to:
$8.85
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
IRBT is a 145.86% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 110.62% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -2.62% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
IRBT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.31
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.892
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.261
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.284
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.983
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.771
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.461
Beta is -10.18% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.707
Beta is -23.15% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
3.97%
Sustainable growth rate is -88.14% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.140
Alpha is -2944.33% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 892% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
IRBT
Equity cost of capital:
0.121
Equity cost of capital is -18.24% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
11.87%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$57.06
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.31
Annual revenue growth rate is 20.32% above the industry average
EPS:
-$0.33
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-29.18%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -339.98% lower than the Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$1.36
EBITDA per share
$0.70
Valuation Analysis Today of
IRBT
P/E Ratio:
49.63
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
29.51
P/E ratio is 68.21% higher than main peers & is 206.90% higher than the industry
-
IRBT is -1206.07% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.03
Price to sales ratio is 12.88% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.31
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
183.54%
Net income growth rate is -342.95% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
5.31%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-10.81%
Debt to assets ratio:
3.56%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-7.25%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -95.21% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.398
Statistical significance of correlation:
IRBT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.556
Stock price is -28.49% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.556
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.055
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.122
Kurtosis
8.589
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.49
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
IRBT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
139%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-1.98%
Operating profit margin is -126.78% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
139%
Effective Tax Rate:
58.51%
Effective tax rate is 216.92% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-1.07%
Return on equity (ROE) is -103.66% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-0.72%
Return on assets (ROA) is -108.03% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
2.35
Current ratio is 50.97% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-23.4
Cash conversion cycle is -141.65% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-96.63%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.1M
Each employee generates 147% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
13.3K
Each employee generates -65% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 5.2K
Each employee generates -125% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 73.3K
Each employee generates 456% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
270.9K
Each employee generates 456% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 10.64%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -711.39% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
IRBT
CANADIAN SOLAR INC (XNAS:CSIQ)
Sapiens International Corporation N.V. (XNAS:SPNS)
CAMTEK LTD (XNAS:CAMT)
Docebo Inc. (XNAS:DCBO)
FORMULA SYSTEMS (1985) LTD (XNAS:FORTY)
EXTREME NETWORKS, INC. (XNAS:EXTR)
QADA
CSG SYSTEMS INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNAS:CSGS)
ARRAY TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:ARRY)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�21%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/2/22
Revenue:
1.55B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.02B
534.87M
161.94M
102.45M
402.37M
299.92M
1.34M
565.65M
-
-
37.05M
19.07M
- 30776.00K
- 7459.00K
- 17978.00K
- 10519.00K
- 7459.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
11.24M
Differed Income Tax :
- 15571.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
7.21M
Change in Working Capital :
- 74787.00K
Accounts Receivables:
54.30M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 102315.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 3113.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 500.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/2/22
2022
Q1
112.04M
1.46M
113.50M
105.57M
331.09M
96.75M
646.91M
103.14M
169.96M
26.63M
-
51.00M
38.83M
389.56M
-
1.04B
172.91M
-
-
13.30M
89.38M
275.59M
36.90M
25.58M
65.68M
-
341.26M
-
455.30M
-
239.90M
April 2, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.58B
695.20M
1.04B
-
36.90M
- 75134.0K
16.21M
-
12.60M
-
-
-
-
- 727.00K
- 727.00K
1.02M
- 89419.00K
112.04M
201.46M
- 102315.00K
- 3113.00K
- 105428.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
IRBT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$51.58
$56.13
$61.07
$66.46
$72.32