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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Irhythm Technologies, Inc. (XNAS:IRTC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
IRTC
Name:
IRHYTHM TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:IRTC)
Sector:
- 44457.00K
Industry:
Medical Devices
CEO:
Mr. Kevin King
Total Employees:
1,700
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 216.00% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF IRHYTHM TECHNOLOGIES, INC.(IRTC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL DEVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
152.93
One Month Price Target:
$154.21
Six Month Price Target :
$160.64
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$168.34
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$151.9
Price Upper limit ($) :
$154.79
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$135.88
This week:
$114.81
This month :
$76.69
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.53B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
30.03M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
59.01%
-39.47%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$231.95
$195.08
$73.91
$110.78
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$183.09
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$175.22
$122.67
$130.64
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
IRTC
Sharpe Ratio:
4.74%
Comparison:
IRTC, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 212.78% higher than the industry
& ratio is 107.85% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
IRTC
Daily returns:
0.27%
Weekly returns:
1.36%
Monthly returns:
5.45%
Yearly returns:
15.36%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 325.52% above industry average
Classification:
IRTC, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.36
Statistical test of Returns:
IRTC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.56%
Weekly Volatility:
12.43%
Monthly Volatility:
24.87%
Yearly Volatility:
86.15%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.00%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -64.12% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-11.15%
Weekly VaR:
-24.93%
Monthly VaR:
-49.86%
How Much Can the price of
IRTC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-41%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$90.30
This translates to price declining to:
$22.94
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
IRTC is a 251.88% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 201.45% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 77.12% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
IRTC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.50
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.986
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.394
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.002
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.165
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.797
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.483
Beta is 1.11% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.065
Beta is 40.84% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.519
Alpha is 956.79% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 3305% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
IRTC
Equity cost of capital:
0.134
Equity cost of capital is 28.52% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.97%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.16%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.70%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.70%
WACC is 26.18% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$11.35
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
18.75
Annual revenue growth rate is -79.06% below industry average
EPS:
-$4.21
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
17.01%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 46.85% higher than the Medical Devices industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$4.04
EBITDA per share
-$3.50
Valuation Analysis Today of
IRTC
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
17.24
-
-
IRTC is -114.92% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
13.47
Price to sales ratio is 44.71% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
18.75
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
70.58%
Net income growth rate is -27.33% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
49.53%
Net debt to equity ratio:
15.51%
Debt to assets ratio:
28.28%
Net debt to assets ratio:
8.86%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -26.99% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-36.7
Interest coverage ratio is -375.13% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
185.87%
Annual debt growth is -23% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 14.99%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.325
Statistical significance of correlation:
IRTC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.468
Stock price is -30.49% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.468
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.006
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.019
Kurtosis
28.289
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.768
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
IRTC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
263%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-35.50%
Operating profit margin is 107.93% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
263%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.26%
Effective tax rate is -100.46% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-50.72%
Return on equity (ROE) is 417.35% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-28.97%
Return on assets (ROA) is 759.27% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
4.63
Current ratio is -28.30% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
25.8
Cash conversion cycle is -53.67% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-11.19%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
200.5K
Each employee generates -47% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 61.8K
Each employee generates -1088% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 73.1K
Each employee generates 146% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 26.2K
Each employee generates 84% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
83.7K
Each employee generates 84% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -6.43%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 4804.66% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
IRTC
SEER, INC. (XNAS:SEER)
BIOCRYST PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:BCRX)
HEALTH CATALYST, INC. (XNAS:HCAT)
EDITAS MEDICINE, INC. (XNAS:EDIT)
AXONICS, INC. (XNAS:AXNX)
RUBIUS THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:RUBY)
ALLSCRIPTS HEALTHCARE SOLUTIONS, INC. (XNAS:MDRX)
Outset Medical, Inc. (XNAS:OM)
GLOBAL BLOOD THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:GBT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�8%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
340.89M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
116.42M
224.47M
40.70M
-
278.18M
-
-
318.89M
-
2.86M
15.94M
- 105071.00K
- 121022.00K
- 124191.00K
- 123875.00K
316.00K
- 124191.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
9.69M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
13.90M
Change in Working Capital :
- 49487.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 22878.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 116.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
37.62M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 38885.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 5572.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 45974.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
94.79M
114.00M
208.78M
55.29M
12.45M
9.84M
286.35M
122.39M
862.00K
-
-
-
19.11M
142.36M
-
428.72M
5.41M
11.50M
-
2.93M
41.94M
61.78M
121.26M
832.00K
122.09M
-
183.88M
27.00K
- 456654.00K
- 353.0K
701.82M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
435.31M
244.84M
428.72M
-
132.76M
38.0M
43.02M
-
- 8527.00K
- 21389.00K
-
-
-
36.03M
14.64M
-
- 32776.00K
94.79M
127.56M
- 38885.00K
- 5572.00K
- 44457.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
IRTC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$136.59
$150.36
$165.51
$182.19
$200.56