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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Iqvia Holdings Inc (XNYS:IQV) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
IQV
Name:
IQVIA HOLDINGS INC (XNYS:IQV)
Sector:
331.00M
Industry:
Diagnostics & Research
CEO:
Mr. Ari Bousbib
Total Employees:
83,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 41.97% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF IQVIA HOLDINGS INC(IQV) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DIAGNOSTICS & RESEARCH INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
207.26
One Month Price Target:
$208.83
Six Month Price Target :
$216.66
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$226.07
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$206.6
Price Upper limit ($) :
$208.25
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$197.44
This week:
$185.3
This month :
$163.33
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
39.10B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
186.51M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.37%
-16.54%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$252.81
$231.73
$161.71
$182.79
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$224.86
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$220.36
$189.60
$194.16
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
IQV
Sharpe Ratio:
3.07%
Comparison:
IQV, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 21.86% higher than the industry
& ratio is 34.62% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
IQV
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.40%
Monthly returns:
1.62%
Yearly returns:
27.92%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -30.48% below industry average
Classification:
IQV, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.46
Statistical test of Returns:
IQV has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.35%
Weekly Volatility:
5.25%
Monthly Volatility:
10.50%
Yearly Volatility:
36.36%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.68%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -71.19% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.74%
Weekly VaR:
-10.60%
Monthly VaR:
-21.19%
How Much Can the price of
IQV
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-18%
Worst case (decline):
-73.42%
This translates to price declining to:
$170.34
This translates to price declining to:
$55.09
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
IQV is a 49.59% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 28.16% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -39.21% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
IQV
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.35
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.827
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.17
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.474
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.93
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.909
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.812
Beta is 66.24% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.181
Beta is 14.31% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
13.03%
Sustainable growth rate is -75.33% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.070
Alpha is -57.98% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 446% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
IQV
Equity cost of capital:
0.124
Equity cost of capital is 10.30% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.35%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.80%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.21%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.21%
WACC is -17.88% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$75.24
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
6.53
Annual revenue growth rate is -64.72% below industry average
EPS:
$5.55
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
71.58%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 166.66% higher than the Diagnostics & Research industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$10.17
-
-
Debt per share
$68.94
EBITDA per share
$15.16
Valuation Analysis Today of
IQV
P/E Ratio:
34.62
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
43.35
P/E ratio is -20.14% lower than main peers & is -6.88% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $206.33
IQV is 0.45% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.75
Price to sales ratio is -71.01% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
6.53
Price to free cash flow: 20.38
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
297.15%
Net income growth rate is -230.01% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
217.22%
Net debt to equity ratio:
195.30%
Debt to assets ratio:
51.49%
Net debt to assets ratio:
46.30%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 5.96% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.81
Interest coverage ratio is -127.84% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-3.61%
Annual debt growth is -103% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.46%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.788
Statistical significance of correlation:
IQV has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.488
Stock price is 61.64% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.488
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.009
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.013
Kurtosis
10.286
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.244
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
IQV
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
136%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
11.02%
Operating profit margin is -109.79% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
136%
Effective Tax Rate:
14.95%
Effective tax rate is -22.10% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
18.23%
Return on equity (ROE) is -13.23% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.32%
Return on assets (ROA) is -101.60% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.1x
Current Ratio:
0.93
Current ratio is -81.38% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
38.6
Cash conversion cycle is -22.21% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.78%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
169.1K
Each employee generates -55% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
34.1K
Each employee generates 13% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
13.0K
Each employee generates -19% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
4.0K
Each employee generates -283% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
243.3K
Each employee generates -283% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
IQV
HUMANA INC. (XNYS:HUM)
CENTENE CORPORATION (XNYS:CNC)
AGILENT TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNYS:A)
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (XNYS:TAK)
Alcon Inc. (XNYS:ALC)
BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORPORATION (XNYS:BSX)
MCKESSON CORPORATION (XNYS:MCK)
VEEVA SYSTEMS INC. (XNYS:VEEV)
METTLER-TOLEDO INTERNATIONAL INC. (XNYS:MTD)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�21%
Hold�33%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
14.03B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
9.26B
4.77B
-
-
2.01B
-
1.20B
3.21B
6.00M
362.00M
1.20B
2.83B
1.55B
1.08B
1.27B
190.00M
1.08B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
255.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 10000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
30.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 111000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
54.00M
Other Working Capital:
- 165000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
19.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
508.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 177000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 436000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 3000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.39B
106.00M
1.49B
2.66B
-
617.00M
4.77B
938.00M
13.53B
4.92B
162.00M
120.00M
528.00M
20.20B
-
24.97B
2.82B
90.00M
135.00M
1.93B
324.00M
5.16B
12.86B
581.00M
13.89B
-
19.05B
10.75B
2.57B
- 419000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
12.47B
5.92B
24.97B
268.00M
12.95B
11.6B
-
3.00M
- 613000.00K
- 324000.00K
-
- 403000.00K
-
871.00M
144.00M
- 18000.00K
21.00M
1.39B
1.37B
508.00M
- 177000.00K
331.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
IQV
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$227.20
$356.56
$388.92
$424.21
$462.71