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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (XNAS:IONS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
IONS
Name:
IONIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:IONS)
Sector:
- 35181.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Dr. Stanley Crooke
Total Employees:
660
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -72.26% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF IONIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.(IONS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
43.24
One Month Price Target:
$43.4
Six Month Price Target :
$44.17
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$45.11
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$43.02
Price Upper limit ($) :
$43.45
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$40.66
This week:
$37.48
This month :
$31.72
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.91B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
141.94M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
11.16%
-21.66%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$55.21
$49.78
$31.27
$36.70
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$48.01
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$46.85
$38.46
$39.63
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
IONS
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.62%
Comparison:
IONS, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -131.81% lower than the industry
& is -127.14% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
IONS
Daily returns:
-0.01%
Weekly returns:
-0.05%
Monthly returns:
-0.18%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -108.63% below industry average
Classification:
IONS, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.54
Statistical test of Returns:
IONS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.90%
Weekly Volatility:
6.48%
Monthly Volatility:
12.96%
Yearly Volatility:
44.88%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.40%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -51.79% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.96%
Weekly VaR:
-13.33%
Monthly VaR:
-26.65%
How Much Can the price of
IONS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
-92.32%
This translates to price declining to:
$33.00
This translates to price declining to:
$3.32
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
IONS is a 88.10% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 61.14% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -39.06% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
IONS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.64
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.857
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.212
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.219
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.824
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.651
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.871
Beta is -26.29% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -44.22% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.097
Alpha is -168.58% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -619% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
IONS
Equity cost of capital:
0.076
Equity cost of capital is -31.60% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.58%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.22%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.17%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.17%
WACC is -56.21% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$5.92
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
8.65
Annual revenue growth rate is -95.34% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.03
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.24
-
-
Debt per share
$8.61
EBITDA per share
$0.13
Valuation Analysis Today of
IONS
P/E Ratio:
113.57
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
76.61
P/E ratio is 48.25% higher than main peers & is 26.58% higher than the industry
-
IONS is -1706.34% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
7.3
Price to sales ratio is -81.98% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
8.65
Price to free cash flow: 177.92
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-109.79%
Net income growth rate is -255.55% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
172.25%
Net debt to equity ratio:
95.79%
Debt to assets ratio:
48.52%
Net debt to assets ratio:
26.98%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 15.09% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7
Interest coverage ratio is -105.92% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
49.01%
Annual debt growth is -64% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.493
Statistical significance of correlation:
IONS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is 45.02% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.018
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.031
Kurtosis
6.127
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.69
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
IONS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
392%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.51%
Operating profit margin is -100.12% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
392%
Effective Tax Rate:
-12.00%
Effective tax rate is -310.31% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-0.55%
Return on equity (ROE) is -99.04% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-0.15%
Return on assets (ROA) is -99.24% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.9x
Current Ratio:
9.86
Current ratio is 21.84% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-199
Cash conversion cycle is -137.33% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: -45.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-673.93%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.3M
Each employee generates -21% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
28.5K
Each employee generates -93% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 5.9K
Each employee generates -105% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 53.3K
Each employee generates -136% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
403.0K
Each employee generates -136% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 20.25%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -664.55% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
IONS
APELLIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:APLS)
NEOGEN CORPORATION (XNAS:NEOG)
INARI MEDICAL, INC. (XNAS:NARI)
Maravai LifeSciences Holdings Inc (XNAS:MRVI)
VIR BIOTECHNOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:VIR)
THE ENSIGN GROUP, INC. (XNAS:ENSG)
INMODE LTD (XNAS:INMD)
OPTION CARE HEALTH, INC. (XNAS:OPCH)
CERTARA, INC. (XNAS:CERT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�17%
Hold�33%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
840.77M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
12.43M
828.34M
664.78M
147.90M
147.90M
-
-
812.68M
-
2.69M
19.60M
18.81M
4.28M
- 3893.00K
- 3476.00K
417.00K
- 3893.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
4.90M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
26.24M
Change in Working Capital :
- 3761.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 47303.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
6.15M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 31650.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 2705.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 462855.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
542.51M
1.51B
2.05B
26.12M
24.03M
150.58M
2.25B
177.72M
-
29.30M
-
-
58.95M
265.97M
-
2.52B
16.13M
-
901.00K
91.44M
120.89M
228.45M
1.22B
25.71M
1.58B
-
1.81B
142.00K
- 1225068.00K
- 48578.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
825.11M
709.57M
2.52B
-
1.22B
679.7M
178.84M
- 826.00K
- 287549.00K
-
1.85M
-
-
- 9173.00K
- 7325.00K
- 154.00K
- 326678.00K
542.51M
869.19M
- 31650.00K
- 3531.00K
- 35181.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
IONS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$38.04
$39.69
$41.40
$43.19
$45.05