_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Invitation Homes Inc. (XNYS:INVH) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
INVH
Name:
INVITATION HOMES INC. (XNYS:INVH)
Sector:
-
Industry:
REIT�Residential
CEO:
Mr. Dallas Tanner
Total Employees:
1,240
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -1631.90% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF INVITATION HOMES INC.(INVH) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�RESIDENTIAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
36.47
One Month Price Target:
$36.65
Six Month Price Target :
$37.58
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$38.69
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$36.36
Price Upper limit ($) :
$36.63
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$34.85
This week:
$32.86
This month :
$29.25
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
23.30B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
610.36M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.46%
-23.55%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$43.96
$40.51
$28.98
$32.43
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$39.39
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$38.65
$33.54
$34.29
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
INVH
Sharpe Ratio:
2.14%
Comparison:
INVH, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 35.09% higher than the industry
& is -5.99% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
INVH
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.28%
Monthly returns:
1.11%
Yearly returns:
13.06%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 2.28% above industry average
Classification:
INVH, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.53
Statistical test of Returns:
INVH has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.18%
Weekly Volatility:
4.88%
Monthly Volatility:
9.77%
Yearly Volatility:
33.83%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.24%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -43.00% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.43%
Weekly VaR:
-9.90%
Monthly VaR:
-19.81%
How Much Can the price of
INVH
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-17%
Worst case (decline):
-68.62%
This translates to price declining to:
$30.31
This translates to price declining to:
$11.44
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
INVH is a 39.81% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 19.77% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -10.94% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
INVH
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.90
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.773
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.094
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.734
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.862
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.12
Beta is -19.24% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.785
Beta is 15.16% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.040
Alpha is -11.45% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 255% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
INVH
Equity cost of capital:
0.093
Equity cost of capital is 9.56% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.36
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.18
Annual revenue growth rate is -38.43% below industry average
EPS:
$0.50
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
18.56%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 266.86% higher than the REIT�Residential industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.07
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 54.37%
Equity growth rate per share is -1416.29% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$1.99
Valuation Analysis Today of
INVH
P/E Ratio:
63.23
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
155.67
P/E ratio is -59.38% lower than main peers & is -4.65% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $33.16
INVH is 9.99% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $65.97
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $23.34
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
10.84
Price to sales ratio is -7.55% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.18
Price to free cash flow: 34.00
Price to free cash flow ratio is -4.84% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-4885.18%
Net income growth rate is 353.75% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 2.14%
Previous Dividend: $0.22
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.22
Previous Dividend: $0.78
Expected next dividend best case: $0.24
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.20
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.17
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 5.81%
Expected next dividend payment date: 25/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 21/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 27/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/10/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 22/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-09--$0.22
2021-11-08--$0.17
2021-05-10--$0.17
2022-02-11--$0.22
2021-08-09--$0.17
2021-02-09--$0.17
Dividend growth rate is -121.44% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
92.03%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-4.59%
Debt to assets ratio:
47.82%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-2.52%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -6.21% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.87
Interest coverage ratio is 47.90% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-0.41%
Annual debt growth is -91% lower than industry average debt growth rate
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.706
Statistical significance of correlation:
INVH has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.63
Stock price is 12.02% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.63
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.038
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.048
Kurtosis
23.687
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.731
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
INVH
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
245%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
28.09%
Operating profit margin is -7.61% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
245%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
2.91%
Return on equity (ROE) is -65.83% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.60%
Return on assets (ROA) is -54.39% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.9x
Current Ratio:
3.23
Current ratio is -65.51% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.7M
Each employee generates 105% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
978.8K
Each employee generates 67% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
239.3K
Each employee generates 9% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
0.0K
-
Assets/Capital per employee
339.2K
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
INVH
MID-AMERICA APARTMENT COMMUNITIES, INC. (XNYS:MAA)
Ke Holdings Inc (XNYS:BEKE)
EXTRA SPACE STORAGE INC. (XNYS:EXR)
SUN COMMUNITIES, INC. (XNYS:SUI)
ESSEX PROPERTY TRUST, INC. (XNYS:ESS)
NRZ-PC
VENTAS, INC. (XNYS:VTR)
WEYERHAEUSER COMPANY (XNYS:WY)
BOSTON PROPERTIES, INC. (XNYS:BXP)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�25%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.05B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
796.78M
1.26B
-
76.50M
76.50M
-
603.43M
679.93M
-
313.64M
603.43M
1.21B
576.99M
296.67M
298.06M
-
296.67M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
155.80M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 110490.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
17.49B
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 137701.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
-
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
1/27/22
2022
Q1
467.46M
17.03B
17.49B
-
-
-
17.49B
-
258.21M
-
162.43M
-
-
420.64M
1.47B
18.54B
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
8.32B
8.32B
6.10M
- 836494.00K
- 80534.0K
11.09B
January 27, 2022 at 7:00:00 AM
1.48B
10.18B
18.50B
17.19B
-
- 467457.0K
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
818.86M
-
-
-
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
INVH
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$38.88
$60.07
$63.72
$67.59
$71.70