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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Invesco Ltd. (XNYS:IVZ) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
IVZ
Name:
INVESCO LTD. (XNYS:IVZ)
Sector:
- 375400.00K
Industry:
Asset Management
CEO:
Mr. Martin Flanagan
Total Employees:
8,506
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 462.91% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF INVESCO LTD.(IVZ) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ASSET MANAGEMENT INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
16.25
One Month Price Target:
$16.37
Six Month Price Target :
$16.95
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$17.64
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$16.16
Price Upper limit ($) :
$16.35
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$15.12
This week:
$13.72
This month :
$11.2
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
7.47B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
454.90M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.34%
-21.13%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$21.49
$19.09
$11.01
$13.41
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$18.31
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$17.80
$14.19
$14.70
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
IVZ
Sharpe Ratio:
1.25%
Comparison:
IVZ, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 55.86% higher than the industry
& is -45.02% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
IVZ
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.26%
Monthly returns:
1.03%
Yearly returns:
9.18%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 34.78% above industry average
Classification:
IVZ, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.29
Statistical test of Returns:
IVZ has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.41%
Weekly Volatility:
7.62%
Monthly Volatility:
15.25%
Yearly Volatility:
52.81%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.52%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -84.73% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.95%
Weekly VaR:
-15.54%
Monthly VaR:
-31.08%
How Much Can the price of
IVZ
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$11.88
This translates to price declining to:
$2.44
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
IVZ is a 119.36% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 87.93% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 31.19% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
IVZ
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.28
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.853
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.206
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.729
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.155
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.236
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.014
Beta is 25.95% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.694
Beta is -24.61% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
8.32%
Sustainable growth rate is -70.49% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.005
Alpha is -108.57% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 30% compared to market & is healthy
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
IVZ
Equity cost of capital:
0.119
Equity cost of capital is -19.36% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.79%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$15.09
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.44
Annual revenue growth rate is -86.43% below industry average
EPS:
$2.85
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
32.34%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 16.44% higher than the Asset Management industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.60
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -1.21%
Equity growth rate per share is -105.71% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$5.20
Valuation Analysis Today of
IVZ
P/E Ratio:
7
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
10.98
P/E ratio is -36.22% lower than main peers & is -56.62% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $46.02
IVZ is -64.69% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $21.67
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $5.79
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.08
Price to sales ratio is -84.28% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.44
Price to free cash flow: 27.04
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
64.33%
Net income growth rate is -55.75% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 3.80%
Previous Dividend: $0.19
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.19
Previous Dividend: $0.62
Expected next dividend best case: $0.23
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.14
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.17
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.10%
Expected next dividend payment date: 31/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 25/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/02/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/10/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 26/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-09--$0.19
2021-11-10--$0.17
2021-08-12--$0.17
2022-02-15--$0.17
2021-10-08--$0.09
2021-05-10--$0.17
Dividend growth rate is -80.08% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
95.97%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-8.53%
Debt to assets ratio:
48.97%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-4.11%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -6.31% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
25.13
Interest coverage ratio is -57.74% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.723
Statistical significance of correlation:
IVZ has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.576
Stock price is 25.44% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.576
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.027
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.054
Kurtosis
6.199
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.459
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
IVZ
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
292%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
25.77%
Operating profit margin is -45.21% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
292%
Effective Tax Rate:
21.66%
Effective tax rate is -11.31% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
10.16%
Return on equity (ROE) is -59.79% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.90%
Return on assets (ROA) is -16.09% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.0x
Current Ratio:
0.04
Current ratio is -98.85% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
4.9
Cash conversion cycle is -99.44% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
807.0K
Each employee generates -42% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
278.0K
Each employee generates -137% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
183.4K
Each employee generates -115% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 44.1K
Each employee generates -63% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.9M
Each employee generates -63% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
IVZ
Aegon NV (XNYS:AEG)
EVEREST RE GROUP, LTD. (XNYS:RE)
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. (XNYS:AFG)
WESTERN ALLIANCE BANCORPORATION (XNYS:WAL)
GLOBE LIFE INC. (XNYS:GL)
CNA FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNYS:CNA)
FIRST HORIZON CORPORATION (XNYS:FHN)
JEFFERIES FINANCIAL GROUP INC. (XNYS:JEF)
COMERICA INCORPORATED (XNYS:CMA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�25%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
6.86B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.86B
5.01B
-
3.10B
3.20B
104.50M
62.10M
3.26B
25.10M
94.10M
203.70M
2.36B
1.77B
1.56B
2.34B
507.40M
1.56B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 243600.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
2.28B
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 131800.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 375400.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
1/22/22
2022
Q1
1.31B
966.80M
2.28B
-
-
-
2.28B
-
-
-
-
-
-
16.05B
45.63B
31.85B
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
15.07B
15.07B
-
-
-
15.35B
January 22, 2022 at 7:00:00 AM
5.12B
15.35B
30.41B
-
-
- 1309600.0K
-
- 79100.00K
- 79100.00K
-
-
-
-
- 55300.00K
- 55300.00K
-
- 533000.00K
1.61B
2.15B
- 375400.00K
-
- 375400.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
IVZ
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$17.73
$30.39
$33.00
$35.83
$38.90