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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Invesco Adv Muni Ii (XNYS:VKI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
VKI
Name:
Invesco Adv Muni II (XNYS:VKI)
Sector:
43.84M
Industry:
Asset Management
CEO:
Total Employees:
-
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF INVESCO ADV MUNI II(VKI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ASSET MANAGEMENT INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
9.1
One Month Price Target:
$9.12
Six Month Price Target :
$9.2
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$9.29
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$9.08
Price Upper limit ($) :
$9.12
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$8.88
This week:
$8.62
This month :
$8.13
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
437.58M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
-
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
8.99%
-12.52%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$10.10
$9.65
$8.10
$8.55
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$9.51
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$9.41
$8.69
$8.79
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
VKI
Sharpe Ratio:
-2.81%
Comparison:
VKI, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -449.21% lower than the industry
& is -223.19% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
VKI
Daily returns:
-0.02%
Weekly returns:
-0.12%
Monthly returns:
-0.47%
Yearly returns:
9.18%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -160.90% below industry average
Classification:
VKI, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.97
Statistical test of Returns:
VKI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.15%
Weekly Volatility:
2.56%
Monthly Volatility:
5.12%
Yearly Volatility:
17.74%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.77%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -32.52% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-2.37%
Weekly VaR:
-5.31%
Monthly VaR:
-10.62%
How Much Can the price of
VKI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-10%
Worst case (decline):
-36.79%
This translates to price declining to:
$8.22
This translates to price declining to:
$5.75
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
VKI is -25.04% less risky an investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is -35.78% less risky than Nasdaq(IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -55.94% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
VKI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.32
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.686
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.97
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.24
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.288
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.061
Beta is -70.24% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.694
Beta is -81.36% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
13.20%
Sustainable growth rate is -53.19% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.109
Alpha is 95.70% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -694% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
VKI
Equity cost of capital:
0.053
Equity cost of capital is -63.99% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
25.02%
After-tax cost of debt:
19.76%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
19.76%
WACC is 0.99% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.88
Annual revenue growth rate is -174.02% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.06
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
39.00%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 40.43% higher than the Asset Management industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.41
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -15.42%
Equity growth rate per share is -172.98% lower than the industry
Debt per share
-
EBITDA per share
-
Valuation Analysis Today of
VKI
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
7.09
-
-
VKI is -1039.24% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $19.47
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $3.18
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
6.53
Price to sales ratio is -4.75% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.88
Price to free cash flow: 6.45
Price to free cash flow ratio is -27.61% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-68.18%
Net income growth rate is -146.90% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 30.35%
Dividend yeild: 2.03%
Previous Dividend: $0.05
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.05
Previous Dividend: $0.19
Expected next dividend best case: $0.05
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.05
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.05
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -0.47%
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-14--$0.05
2022-04-14--$0.05
2022-02-14--$0.05
2022-05-13--$0.05
2022-03-14--$0.05
2022-01-14--$0.05
Dividend growth rate is -108.51% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
65.48%
Net debt to equity ratio:
24.00%
Debt to assets ratio:
39.57%
Net debt to assets ratio:
14.55%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -24.29% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.45
Interest coverage ratio is -94.20% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-64.26%
Annual debt growth is 829% higher than industry average debt growth rate
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.431
Statistical significance of correlation:
VKI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.576
Stock price is -25.11% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.576
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.011
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.007
Kurtosis
31.501
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.876
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
VKI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
255%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
63.59%
Operating profit margin is 35.20% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
255%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
14.88%
Return on equity (ROE) is -41.12% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
9.02%
Return on assets (ROA) is 54.59% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-83.3
Cash conversion cycle is -109.59% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
-
-
EBITDA generated per employee:
-
-
Profit generated per employee:
-
-
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
-
-
Assets/Capital per employee
-
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
VKI
Allspring Income Oppty (XNYS:EAD)
GAMCO Gl Gld NR & Inc (XNYS:GGN)
Cornerstone Total Return (XNYS:CRF)
abrdn Emg Mkts Eq Inc (XNYS:AEF)
Clough Glbl Opptys (XNYS:GLO)
Allspring Multi-Sector (XNYS:ERC)
BLUE RIDGE BANKSHARES, INC. (XNYS:BRBS)
Neuberger Municipal (XNYS:NBH)
Eaton Vance CA Muni Bd (XNYS:EVM)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
2/29/20
Revenue:
74.01M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
26.80M
47.20M
-
73.18K
140.02K
-
-
140.02K
-
32.53M
-
112.12M
47.06M
79.59M
79.59M
-
79.59M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 339.13K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
38.13M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
43.84M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
2/28/21
2021
FY
1.69M
-
1.69M
9.13M
-
-
-
-
-
-
871.46M
-
-
-
882.28M
882.28M
1.18M
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
347.53M
347.53M
499.39M
35.36M
-
-
February 28, 2021 at 7:00:00 AM
26.94M
534.75M
882.28M
-
130.02M
128.3M
-
-
-
-
-
-
- 24153.87K
- 17997.39K
- 42151.27K
-
-
1.69M
-
43.84M
-
43.84M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
VKI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$8.56
$8.74
$8.93
$9.12
$9.31