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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (XNAS:ISRG) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ISRG
Name:
INTUITIVE SURGICAL, INC. (XNAS:ISRG)
Sector:
127.90M
Industry:
Medical Instruments & Supplies
CEO:
Dr. Gary Guthart
Total Employees:
9,793
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -1246.76% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF INTUITIVE SURGICAL, INC.(ISRG) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL INSTRUMENTS & SUPPLIES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
203.67
One Month Price Target:
$205.16
Six Month Price Target :
$212.63
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$221.59
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$202.89
Price Upper limit ($) :
$204.61
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$193.37
This week:
$180.65
This month :
$157.62
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
72.24B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
357.11M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.44%
-14.34%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$251.45
$229.55
$155.89
$177.79
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$222.42
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$217.74
$184.86
$189.60
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ISRG
Sharpe Ratio:
1.25%
Comparison:
ISRG, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -22.05% lower than the industry
& is -45.24% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ISRG
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.20%
Monthly returns:
0.80%
Yearly returns:
14.68%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -34.92% below industry average
Classification:
ISRG, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.83
Statistical test of Returns:
ISRG has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.48%
Weekly Volatility:
5.55%
Monthly Volatility:
11.09%
Yearly Volatility:
38.43%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.66%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -73.46% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.06%
Weekly VaR:
-11.30%
Monthly VaR:
-22.61%
How Much Can the price of
ISRG
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-78.32%
This translates to price declining to:
$163.88
This translates to price declining to:
$44.16
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ISRG is a 59.57% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 36.70% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -14.54% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ISRG
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.31
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.96
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.357
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.167
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.037
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.809
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.611
Beta is 114.21% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.989
Beta is 32.33% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
15.39%
Sustainable growth rate is 4.73% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.026
Alpha is -153.88% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -163% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ISRG
Equity cost of capital:
0.121
Equity cost of capital is 22.07% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.81%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$16.54
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
5.98
Annual revenue growth rate is -8.68% below industry average
EPS:
$4.49
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
5.37%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -53.57% lower than the Medical Instruments & Supplies industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.93
-
-
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$6.00
Valuation Analysis Today of
ISRG
P/E Ratio:
34
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
21.32
P/E ratio is 59.50% higher than main peers & is -31.84% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $224.00
ISRG is -9.08% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
12.32
Price to sales ratio is 66.07% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
5.98
Price to free cash flow: 51.88
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
44.48%
Net income growth rate is -142.09% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
13.47%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-9.11%
Debt to assets ratio:
11.83%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-8.06%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -67.04% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-375.81
Interest coverage ratio is -629.79% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.783
Statistical significance of correlation:
ISRG has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.505
Stock price is 55.10% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.505
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.002
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.003
Kurtosis
7.518
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.209
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ISRG
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
275%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
30.69%
Operating profit margin is 129.25% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
275%
Effective Tax Rate:
9.85%
Effective tax rate is -70.03% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
13.58%
Return on equity (ROE) is -129.79% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
12.02%
Return on assets (ROA) is 67.80% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
5.22
Current ratio is 42.90% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
62
Cash conversion cycle is 17.58% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 15.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
7.35%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
603.1K
Each employee generates 71% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
218.7K
Each employee generates 96% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
167.9K
Each employee generates 116% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
13.1K
Each employee generates -327% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
804.2K
Each employee generates -327% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 12.75%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 4825.84% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
ISRG
Sanofi SA (XNAS:SNY)
AMGEN INC. (XNAS:AMGN)
GILEAD SCIENCES, INC. (XNAS:GILD)
REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:REGN)
ILLUMINA, INC. (XNAS:ILMN)
VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INCORPORATED (XNAS:VRTX)
BioNTech SE (XNAS:BNTX)
IDEXX LABORATORIES, INC. (XNAS:IDXX)
WALGREENS BOOTS ALLIANCE, INC. (XNAS:WBA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�25%
Buy�21%
Hold�21%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
5.91B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.84B
4.07B
721.70M
-
1.53B
-
-
2.25B
-
- 5700.00K
322.30M
2.14B
1.81B
1.64B
1.84B
181.60M
1.64B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
83.80M
Differed Income Tax :
- 14400.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
120.80M
Change in Working Capital :
- 365400.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 123400.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 118900.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
28.80M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
223.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 95100.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 1187300.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.10B
2.89B
4.00B
1.02B
653.00M
138.60M
5.80B
1.97B
343.20M
64.10M
4.42B
485.40M
598.10M
7.88B
-
13.68B
128.10M
-
113.30M
386.00M
598.10M
1.11B
-
370.90M
409.30M
-
1.52B
400.00K
4.86B
- 110700.0K
7.35B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
4.09B
12.10B
13.62B
7.31B
-
- 1103100.0K
1.07B
-
- 214700.00K
-
-
- 106500.00K
-
- 93400.00K
- 199900.00K
3.80M
- 187800.00K
1.12B
1.31B
223.00M
- 95100.00K
127.90M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ISRG
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$203.93
$221.87
$241.39
$262.63
$285.73