_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Intuit Inc. (XNAS:INTU) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
INTU
Name:
INTUIT INC. (XNAS:INTU)
Sector:
103.00M
Industry:
Software�Application
CEO:
Mr. Sasan Goodarzi
Total Employees:
13,500
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -125.22% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF INTUIT INC.(INTU) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�APPLICATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
420.06
One Month Price Target:
$422.85
Six Month Price Target :
$436.8
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$453.54
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$418.65
Price Upper limit ($) :
$422.39
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$397.91
This week:
$370.53
This month :
$320.99
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
118.04B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
281.87M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
20.08%
-14.48%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$522.76
$475.04
$317.36
$365.08
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$459.51
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$449.32
$380.48
$390.80
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
INTU
Sharpe Ratio:
3.81%
Comparison:
INTU, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 294.87% higher than the industry
& ratio is 66.99% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
INTU
Daily returns:
0.11%
Weekly returns:
0.54%
Monthly returns:
2.17%
Yearly returns:
9.94%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 162.27% above industry average
Classification:
INTU, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.78
Statistical test of Returns:
INTU has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.62%
Weekly Volatility:
5.86%
Monthly Volatility:
11.72%
Yearly Volatility:
40.60%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.50%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -80.75% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.27%
Weekly VaR:
-11.79%
Monthly VaR:
-23.58%
How Much Can the price of
INTU
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-81.70%
This translates to price declining to:
$337.70
This translates to price declining to:
$76.89
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
INTU is a 66.45% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 42.60% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -27.10% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
INTU
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.19
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.941
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.33
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.983
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.215
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.819
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.231
Beta is -3.67% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.335
Beta is -11.19% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
12.19%
Sustainable growth rate is -60.82% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.148
Alpha is -726.37% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 941% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
INTU
Equity cost of capital:
0.113
Equity cost of capital is -8.33% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.35%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.43%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.92%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.92%
WACC is 7.15% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$45.67
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
12.17
Annual revenue growth rate is -56.01% below industry average
EPS:
$8.81
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
9.39%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -65.69% lower than the Software�Application industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$10.54
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 50.49%
Equity growth rate per share is 3202.56% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$8.66
EBITDA per share
$12.58
Valuation Analysis Today of
INTU
P/E Ratio:
57.97
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
20.89
P/E ratio is 177.45% higher than main peers & is -67.36% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $1,564.63
INTU is -73.15% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $20.18
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $13.09
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
9.2
Price to sales ratio is -19.82% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
12.17
Price to free cash flow: 39.85
Price to free cash flow ratio is -56.80% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
61.44%
Net income growth rate is -74.84% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 7.59%
Dividend yeild: 0.63%
Previous Dividend: $0.68
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.68
Previous Dividend: $2.63
Expected next dividend best case: $0.74
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.62
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.60
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -7.34%
Expected next dividend payment date: 18/07/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 07/11/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 23/05/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 18/04/2022
Previous dividend record date: 04/11/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 22/02/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-08--$0.68
2021-10-07--$0.68
2021-04-09--$0.59
2022-01-07--$0.68
2021-07-09--$0.59
2021-01-08--$0.59
Dividend growth rate is -25.46% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
25.07%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-3.67%
Debt to assets ratio:
16.41%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-2.40%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -70.09% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
58.15
Interest coverage ratio is 9.46% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-27.38%
Annual debt growth is -103% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.807
Statistical significance of correlation:
INTU has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.503
Stock price is 60.42% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.503
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.004
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.006
Kurtosis
6.811
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.371
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
INTU
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
325%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
23.68%
Operating profit margin is -223.57% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
325%
Effective Tax Rate:
17.81%
Effective tax rate is -32.50% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
25.71%
Return on equity (ROE) is -296.55% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
16.83%
Return on assets (ROA) is -538.09% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
2.1
Current ratio is -29.94% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-154.5
Cash conversion cycle is -263.02% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 11.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
11.19%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
953.6K
Each employee generates 176% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
262.7K
Each employee generates 2345% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
185.3K
Each employee generates -1163% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
7.6K
Each employee generates -198% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
769.1K
Each employee generates -198% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 20.55%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 1243.86% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
INTU
ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES, INC. (XNAS:AMD)
TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INCORPORATED (XNAS:TXN)
APPLIED MATERIALS, INC. (XNAS:AMAT)
MICRON TECHNOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:MU)
INTEL CORPORATION (XNAS:INTC)
LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION (XNAS:LRCX)
ANALOG DEVICES, INC. (XNAS:ADI)
ADOBE INC. (XNAS:ADBE)
ATLASSIAN CORPORATION PLC (XNAS:TEAM)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�25%
Buy�13%
Hold�46%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/30/22
Revenue:
12.87B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.27B
10.60B
2.24B
1.40B
4.96B
3.56B
1.16B
8.36B
8.00M
61.00M
442.00M
3.55B
3.05B
2.50B
3.04B
542.00M
2.50B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
114.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 16000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
280.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 444000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 21000.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 298000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 17000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
145.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 42000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 257000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
10/31/21
2022
Q1
2.86B
386.00M
3.25B
522.00M
-
715.00M
4.49B
1.19B
5.61B
3.20B
84.00M
8.00M
289.00M
10.38B
-
14.87B
531.00M
67.00M
20.00M
906.00M
634.00M
2.14B
2.44B
51.00M
3.00B
-
5.14B
10.72B
12.33B
- 29000.0K
- 13289000.00K
October 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
9.83B
9.73B
14.87B
470.00M
2.51B
- 357000.0K
1.18B
- 81000.00K
796.00M
-
-
- 335000.00K
- 190000.00K
- 261000.00K
- 786000.00K
- 2000.00K
153.00M
2.97B
2.82B
145.00M
- 42000.00K
103.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
INTU
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$473.46
$511.19
$551.93
$595.92
$643.42