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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Intra-Cellular Therapies, Inc. (XNAS:ITCI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ITCI
Name:
INTRA-CELLULAR THERAPIES, INC. (XNAS:ITCI)
Sector:
- 83415.00K
Industry:
Drug Manufacturers�Specialty & Generic
CEO:
Dr. Sharon Mates
Total Employees:
512
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -4016.77% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF INTRA-CELLULAR THERAPIES, INC.(ITCI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DRUG MANUFACTURERS�SPECIALTY & GENERIC INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
51.61
One Month Price Target:
$51.96
Six Month Price Target :
$53.7
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$55.78
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$51.07
Price Upper limit ($) :
$52.59
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$42.63
This week:
$31.52
This month :
$11.43
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.79B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
94.40M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
193.49%
-17.92%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$93.25
$73.82
$9.97
$29.40
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$67.50
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$63.35
$35.67
$39.87
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ITCI
Sharpe Ratio:
4.83%
Comparison:
ITCI, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 429.74% higher than the industry
& ratio is 111.81% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ITCI
Daily returns:
0.43%
Weekly returns:
2.14%
Monthly returns:
8.56%
Yearly returns:
14.20%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 623.48% above industry average
Classification:
ITCI, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.24
Statistical test of Returns:
ITCI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
8.68%
Weekly Volatility:
19.42%
Monthly Volatility:
38.84%
Yearly Volatility:
134.53%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.22%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -85.92% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-17.41%
Weekly VaR:
-38.92%
Monthly VaR:
-77.84%
How Much Can the price of
ITCI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-64%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$18.62
This translates to price declining to:
$7.74
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ITCI is a 449.42% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 370.69% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 130.95% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ITCI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.20
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.816
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.154
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.178
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.648
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.622
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.178
Beta is 2.15% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.054
Beta is 14.16% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.914
Alpha is 2283.97% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 5815% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ITCI
Equity cost of capital:
0.114
Equity cost of capital is 9.86% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
11.16%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.25%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.77%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.77%
WACC is 45.80% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$1.09
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
6.15
-
EPS:
-$3.62
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
9.31%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -60.34% lower than the Drug Manufacturers�Specialty & Generic industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.18
EBITDA per share
-$3.20
Valuation Analysis Today of
ITCI
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
14.93
-
-
ITCI is -135.68% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
47.31
Price to sales ratio is 568.29% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
6.15
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
23.32%
Net income growth rate is -104.26% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
2.11%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-13.23%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.93%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-12.08%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -96.26% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-551.8
Interest coverage ratio is -8040.04% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-100.00%
Annual debt growth is -1618% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.135
Statistical significance of correlation:
ITCI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.408
Stock price is -66.81% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.408
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.027
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.138
Kurtosis
364.115
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
16.933
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ITCI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
362%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-296.30%
Operating profit margin is 781.14% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
362%
Effective Tax Rate:
0.00%
Effective tax rate is -99.99% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-38.29%
Return on equity (ROE) is 284.88% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-34.94%
Return on assets (ROA) is 836.49% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
14.36
Current ratio is 335.86% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-305.8
Cash conversion cycle is -302.11% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-2.67%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
201.1K
Each employee generates -76% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 590.6K
Each employee generates -724% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 592.8K
Each employee generates -677% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 162.9K
Each employee generates 185% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
39.5K
Each employee generates 185% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 35.06%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 434.12% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
ITCI
Burning Rock Biotech Ltd (XNAS:BNR)
PTC THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:PTCT)
CRONOS GROUP INC. (XNAS:CRON)
MorphoSys AG (XNAS:MOR)
ROCKET PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:RCKT)
INMODE LTD (XNAS:INMD)
BURFORD CAPITAL LIMITED (XNYS:BUR)
ORGANOGENESIS HOLDINGS INC. (XNAS:ORGO)
VERACYTE, INC. (XNAS:VCYT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�21%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
102.98M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
9.73M
93.24M
102.83M
-
295.49M
-
8.09M
406.41M
1.63M
548.00K
577.35K
- 302385.00K
- 305131.43K
- 303504.72K
- 303499.09K
- 5.63K
- 303504.72K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
171.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
8.11M
Change in Working Capital :
- 14951.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 12676.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 4055.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 82849.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 566.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 826713.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
129.30M
642.55M
771.85M
32.83M
7.89M
35.77M
848.34M
20.15M
-
-
-
-
86.00K
20.24M
-
868.58M
11.65M
7.64M
-
-
39.79M
59.07M
16.76M
-
16.76M
-
75.83M
9.00K
- 1293349.00K
- 3328.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
416.15M
792.75M
868.58M
-
24.39M
- 104903.0K
505.24M
-
- 322035.00K
-
433.73M
-
-
8.09M
441.81M
-
36.93M
130.70M
93.77M
- 82849.00K
- 566.00K
- 83415.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ITCI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$56.06
$40.56
$43.84
$47.38
$51.21