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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Intersect Ent, Inc. (XNAS:XENT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
XENT
Name:
INTERSECT ENT, INC. (XNAS:XENT)
Sector:
- 27013.00K
Industry:
Medical Devices
CEO:
Mr. Thomas West
Total Employees:
433
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 152.97% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF INTERSECT ENT, INC.(XENT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL DEVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
28.24
One Month Price Target:
$28.46
Six Month Price Target :
$29.57
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$30.9
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$28.08
Price Upper limit ($) :
$28.48
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$26.01
This week:
$23.25
This month :
$18.25
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
954.90M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
33.81M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
29.41%
-40.14%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$38.60
$33.81
$17.88
$22.67
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$32.25
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$31.22
$24.22
$25.26
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
XENT
Sharpe Ratio:
3.10%
Comparison:
XENT, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 104.70% higher than the industry
& ratio is 36.03% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
XENT
Daily returns:
0.13%
Weekly returns:
0.65%
Monthly returns:
2.60%
Yearly returns:
15.36%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 103.51% above industry average
Classification:
XENT, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.58
Statistical test of Returns:
XENT has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.91%
Weekly Volatility:
8.75%
Monthly Volatility:
17.51%
Yearly Volatility:
60.65%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
-
-
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.91%
Weekly VaR:
-17.69%
Monthly VaR:
-35.37%
How Much Can the price of
XENT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-30%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$19.83
This translates to price declining to:
$4.24
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
XENT is a 149.66% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 113.88% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 24.69% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
XENT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.40
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
-
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
-
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-2.11
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.866
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.82
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.982
Beta is 42.53% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.065
Beta is 31.42% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.185
Alpha is 276.88% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1179% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
XENT
Equity cost of capital:
0.127
Equity cost of capital is 21.94% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-19.20%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.52%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.57%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.57%
WACC is -82.02% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.08
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-10.16
Annual revenue growth rate is -102.77% below industry average
EPS:
-
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
51.88%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 348.01% higher than the Medical Devices industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$4.66
EBITDA per share
-$4.69
Valuation Analysis Today of
XENT
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
13.99
-
-
-
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
9.18
Price to sales ratio is -1.36% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-10.16
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
534.49%
Net income growth rate is 450.30% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-167.58%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-140.36%
Debt to assets ratio:
123.69%
Net debt to assets ratio:
103.60%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 219.25% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-22.28
Interest coverage ratio is -267.03% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
120.77%
Annual debt growth is -50% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.42
Statistical significance of correlation:
XENT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.468
Stock price is -10.28% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.468
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.032
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.076
Kurtosis
28.316
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.103
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
XENT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
287%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-143.41%
Operating profit margin is 739.95% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
287%
Effective Tax Rate:
0.75%
Effective tax rate is -98.64% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
179.10%
Return on equity (ROE) is -1926.76% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-132.20%
Return on assets (ROA) is 3821.29% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
-4.2x
Current Ratio:
1.88
Current ratio is -70.85% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-12.9
Cash conversion cycle is -123.17% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 23.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-1.82%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
240.2K
Each employee generates -36% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 366.2K
Each employee generates -5953% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 388.9K
Each employee generates 1209% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 62.4K
Each employee generates 339% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
92.2K
Each employee generates 339% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 44.41%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -33970.60% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
XENT
CHIMERIX, INC. (XNAS:CMRX)
Calliditas Therapeutics AB (XNAS:CALT)
CHINOOK THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:KDNY)
ALAUNOS THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:TCRT)
SEASPINE HOLDINGS CORPORATION (XNAS:SPNE)
VBI Vaccines Inc. (XNAS:VBIV)
Athira Pharma, Inc. (XNAS:ATHA)
DBV Technologies SA (XNAS:DBVT)
AGENUS INC. (XNAS:AGEN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�25%
Buy�8%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
104.00M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
29.25M
74.75M
30.97M
-
122.02M
-
-
152.99M
-
7.12M
4.01M
- 158547.00K
- 149141.00K
- 168408.00K
- 169676.00K
- 1268.00K
- 168408.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
403.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
3.07M
Change in Working Capital :
- 5910.00K
Accounts Receivables:
3.97M
Other Working Capital:
- 9732.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
4.38M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 26860.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 153.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 8051.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
25.59M
25.05M
50.63M
13.24M
17.74M
5.87M
87.48M
20.32M
-
-
-
-
19.60M
39.92M
-
127.39M
9.18M
-
-
-
37.23M
46.41M
157.57M
17.44M
175.01M
-
221.42M
34.00K
- 491514.00K
- 53.0K
397.50M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
182.24M
- 94029.00K
127.39M
-
157.57M
132.0M
5.50M
-
- 2704.00K
-
822.00K
-
-
15.00M
15.82M
- 82.00K
- 13703.00K
42.58M
56.28M
- 26860.00K
- 153.00K
- 27013.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
XENT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$23.17
$25.35
$27.74
$30.35
$33.20