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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. (XNYS:IFF) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
IFF
Name:
INTERNATIONAL FLAVORS & FRAGRANCES INC. (XNYS:IFF)
Sector:
- 138000.00K
Industry:
Specialty Chemicals
CEO:
Mr. Andreas Fibig
Total Employees:
24,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -56.37% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF INTERNATIONAL FLAVORS & FRAGRANCES INC.(IFF) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SPECIALTY CHEMICALS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
107.83
One Month Price Target:
$108.45
Six Month Price Target :
$111.55
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$115.26
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$107.42
Price Upper limit ($) :
$108.22
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$102.94
This week:
$96.9
This month :
$85.98
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
27.98B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
254.95M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.81%
-10.43%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$130.52
$120.23
$85.14
$95.43
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$116.88
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$114.68
$98.75
$100.98
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
IFF
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.77%
Comparison:
IFF, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -136.33% lower than the industry
& is -133.76% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
IFF
Daily returns:
-0.01%
Weekly returns:
-0.04%
Monthly returns:
-0.16%
Yearly returns:
24.57%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -107.91% below industry average
Classification:
IFF, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.57
Statistical test of Returns:
IFF has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.20%
Weekly Volatility:
4.92%
Monthly Volatility:
9.85%
Yearly Volatility:
34.12%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.47%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -78.63% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.53%
Weekly VaR:
-10.13%
Monthly VaR:
-20.27%
How Much Can the price of
IFF
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-18%
Worst case (decline):
-70.20%
This translates to price declining to:
$88.40
This translates to price declining to:
$32.13
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
IFF is a 43.03% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 22.53% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -34.47% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
IFF
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.03
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.873
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.235
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.71
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.696
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.665
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.137
Beta is -9.83% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.164
Beta is -11.91% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.121
Alpha is -190.16% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -772% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
IFF
Equity cost of capital:
0.102
Equity cost of capital is -8.54% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.05%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.38%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.88%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.88%
WACC is -9.26% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$48.70
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.3
Annual revenue growth rate is 229.54% above the industry average
EPS:
$2.18
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-35.24%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -3987.02% lower than the Specialty Chemicals industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.50
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 4.39%
Equity growth rate per share is -58.05% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$44.68
EBITDA per share
$8.62
Valuation Analysis Today of
IFF
P/E Ratio:
43.3
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
12.98
P/E ratio is 233.48% higher than main peers & is 15.60% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $81.66
IFF is 32.05% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $41.60
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $32.93
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.21
Price to sales ratio is -19.76% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.3
Price to free cash flow: 43.22
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-71.16%
Net income growth rate is 28.71% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 36.15%
Dividend yeild: 2.93%
Previous Dividend: $0.79
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.79
Previous Dividend: $3.16
Expected next dividend best case: $0.80
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.78
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.77
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.53%
Expected next dividend payment date: 10/04/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 22/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 24/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-23--$0.79
2021-12-27--$0.79
2021-06-24--$0.77
2022-03-24--$0.79
2021-09-23--$0.79
2021-03-25--$0.77
Dividend growth rate is -97.42% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
54.42%
Net debt to equity ratio:
56.30%
Debt to assets ratio:
28.66%
Net debt to assets ratio:
29.65%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -47.03% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.42
Interest coverage ratio is -64.70% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
768.94%
Annual debt growth is 109% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.65%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.658
Statistical significance of correlation:
IFF has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.58
Stock price is 13.58% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.58
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.015
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.019
Kurtosis
6.949
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.472
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
IFF
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
133%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
7.43%
Operating profit margin is -102.64% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
133%
Effective Tax Rate:
18.47%
Effective tax rate is 2.86% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
2.66%
Return on equity (ROE) is -90.76% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.40%
Return on assets (ROA) is -46.73% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
1.86
Current ratio is -30.55% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
88.2
Cash conversion cycle is 42.93% above industry average
-
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.62%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
517.4K
Each employee generates -31% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
91.5K
Each employee generates -7% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
23.2K
Each employee generates -27% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 5.8K
Each employee generates -85% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.3M
Each employee generates -85% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 76.26%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 629.39% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
IFF
CORTEVA, INC. (XNYS:CTVA)
Nutrien Ltd. (XNYS:NTR)
NUCOR CORPORATION (XNYS:NUE)
PPG INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNYS:PPG)
BARRICK GOLD CORPORATION (XNYS:GOLD)
ArcelorMittal SA (XNYS:MTCN)
CRH PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNYS:CRH)
DuPont de Nemours, Inc. (XNYS:DD)
Dow Inc. (XNYS:DOW)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�13%
Hold�42%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
12.42B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
8.29B
4.13B
643.00M
-
1.76B
-
766.00M
3.17B
-
296.00M
1.22B
2.20B
922.00M
556.00M
693.00M
128.00M
556.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
303.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 65000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
9.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 489000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 272000.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 123000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 8000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 4000.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 132000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
11.00M
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
657.00M
-
657.00M
2.46B
2.80B
1.59B
7.51B
5.06B
16.30B
10.25B
85.00M
111.00M
438.00M
32.24B
-
39.75B
1.63B
1.05B
206.00M
-
1.35B
4.03B
11.39B
804.00M
14.65B
-
18.68B
35.00M
3.68B
- 1622000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
11.46B
20.93B
39.61B
-
12.44B
11.8B
-
-
- 121000.00K
- 75000.00K
-
-
- 201000.00K
371.00M
95.00M
- 24000.00K
- 54000.00K
662.00M
716.00M
- 4000.00K
- 134000.00K
- 138000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
IFF
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$91.90
$98.24
$105.01
$112.25
$119.98