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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
International Bancshares Corporation (XNAS:IBOC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
IBOC
Name:
INTERNATIONAL BANCSHARES CORPORATION (XNAS:IBOC)
Sector:
76.61M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Dennis Nixon
Total Employees:
2,101
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -821.71% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF INTERNATIONAL BANCSHARES CORPORATION(IBOC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
41.01
One Month Price Target:
$41.25
Six Month Price Target :
$42.47
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$43.93
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$40.81
Price Upper limit ($) :
$41.24
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$38.44
This week:
$35.26
This month :
$29.51
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.49B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
62.24M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
22.8%
-32.83%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$52.94
$47.48
$29.08
$34.54
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$45.70
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$44.53
$36.31
$37.49
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
IBOC
Sharpe Ratio:
1.12%
Comparison:
IBOC, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -9.22% lower than the industry
& is -51.08% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
IBOC
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.22%
Monthly returns:
0.86%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -5.16% below industry average
Classification:
IBOC, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.57
Statistical test of Returns:
IBOC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.07%
Weekly Volatility:
6.87%
Monthly Volatility:
13.74%
Yearly Volatility:
47.61%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.00%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -67.54% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.27%
Weekly VaR:
-14.02%
Monthly VaR:
-28.03%
How Much Can the price of
IBOC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$31.05
This translates to price declining to:
$6.15
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
IBOC is a 97.85% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 69.50% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 7.58% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
IBOC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.06
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.675
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.954
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.878
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.584
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.935
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.929
Beta is 14.24% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 10.09% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.58%
Sustainable growth rate is -16.99% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.001
Alpha is -105.93% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -4% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
IBOC
Equity cost of capital:
0.104
Equity cost of capital is 6.83% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.62%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.62%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.65%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.65%
WACC is -11.41% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$9.64
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.19
Annual revenue growth rate is -75.91% below industry average
EPS:
$4.04
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
8.52%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -29.14% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.10
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 53.24%
Equity growth rate per share is 37.48% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$9.17
EBITDA per share
$6.05
Valuation Analysis Today of
IBOC
P/E Ratio:
11.68
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
11.09
P/E ratio is 5.34% higher than main peers & is -5.88% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $50.13
IBOC is -18.19% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $43.92
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $28.87
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.25
Price to sales ratio is -0.51% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.19
Price to free cash flow: 10.00
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
22.71%
Net income growth rate is -58.77% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 14.82%
Dividend yeild: 5.61%
Previous Dividend: $0.60
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.60
Previous Dividend: $2.30
Expected next dividend best case: $0.65
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.55
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.57
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.27%
Expected next dividend payment date: 30/05/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 16/05/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 05/05/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 28/02/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/02/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 02/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-02-14--$0.60
2021-02-04--$0.55
2020-03-31--$0.55
2021-08-19--$0.60
2020-09-18--$0.55
--$0.00
Dividend growth rate is -90.36% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
26.57%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-133.98%
Debt to assets ratio:
3.54%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-17.83%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -97.88% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
14.29
Interest coverage ratio is 1623.71% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-0.03%
Annual debt growth is -110% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.01%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.485
Statistical significance of correlation:
IBOC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -3.09% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.002
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.004
Kurtosis
24.096
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.157
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
IBOC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.04%
Operating profit margin is -99.90% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
21.38%
Effective tax rate is -0.80% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
11.95%
Return on equity (ROE) is 0.17% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.59%
Return on assets (ROA) is -30.99% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 19.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.05%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
285.5K
Each employee generates -25% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
179.2K
Each employee generates -21% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
122.2K
Each employee generates -14% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
36.5K
Each employee generates -56% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.5M
Each employee generates -56% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
IBOC
NAVIENT CORPORATION (XNAS:NAVI)
PROSPECT CAPITAL CORPORATION (XNAS:PSEC)
FIRSTCASH HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:FCFS)
COLUMBIA BANKING SYSTEM, INC. (XNAS:COLB)
ATLANTIC UNION BANKSHARES CORPORATION (XNAS:AUB)
OLD NATIONAL BANCORP (XNAS:ONB)
SIMMONS FIRST NATIONAL CORPORATION (XNAS:SFNC)
UNITED COMMUNITY BANKS, INC. (XNAS:UCBI)
AMERICAN NATIONAL GROUP, INC. (XNAS:ANAT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
599.91M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
146.53M
150.58M
4.05M
-
-
396.66M
26.35M
23.70M
376.47M
-
256.64M
326.42M
69.77M
256.64M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
5.48M
Differed Income Tax :
80.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
121.00K
Change in Working Capital :
19.39M
Accounts Receivables:
3.04M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
535.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
79.10M
Investments in PP&E:
- 2486.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 404789.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
3.45B
4.14B
7.59B
27.56M
-
-
-
438.15M
282.53M
-
4.50B
-
-
5.23B
21.36B
16.14B
-
-
-
-
-
-
570.73M
-
570.73M
14.56B
13.99B
96.36M
2.49B
- 205136.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
2.15B
16.14B
8.65B
570.73M
- 2877467.0K
208.38M
172.19M
- 26710.00K
- 48.00K
146.00K
- 3380.00K
- 38026.00K
227.88M
186.57M
-
238.96M
3.45B
3.21B
79.10M
- 2486.00K
76.61M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
IBOC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$52.41
$56.15
$60.15
$64.44
$69.03