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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (XNYS:ICE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ICE
Name:
INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE, INC. (XNYS:ICE)
Sector:
653.00M
Industry:
Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
CEO:
Mr. Jeffrey Sprecher
Total Employees:
8,936
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -77.37% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE, INC.(ICE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND FINANCIAL DATA & STOCK EXCHANGES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
101.28
One Month Price Target:
$101.78
Six Month Price Target :
$104.3
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$107.33
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$100.99
Price Upper limit ($) :
$101.63
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$97.47
This week:
$92.76
This month :
$84.24
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
55.80B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
558.46M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
10.19%
-12.29%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$118.96
$110.85
$83.60
$91.71
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$108.22
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$106.48
$94.32
$96.08
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ICE
Sharpe Ratio:
1.18%
Comparison:
ICE, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -56.24% lower than the industry
& is -48.10% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ICE
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.15%
Monthly returns:
0.61%
Yearly returns:
18.99%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -61.21% below industry average
Classification:
ICE, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.14
Statistical test of Returns:
ICE has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.85%
Weekly Volatility:
4.13%
Monthly Volatility:
8.26%
Yearly Volatility:
28.61%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.03%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -44.33% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.76%
Weekly VaR:
-8.41%
Monthly VaR:
-16.83%
How Much Can the price of
ICE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-15%
Worst case (decline):
-58.28%
This translates to price declining to:
$86.57
This translates to price declining to:
$42.25
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ICE is a 18.75% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 1.74% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -20.71% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ICE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.89
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.681
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.963
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.634
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.668
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.664
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.002
Beta is -11.35% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.802
Beta is 10.78% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
15.54%
Sustainable growth rate is -56.18% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.019
Alpha is -118.06% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -119% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ICE
Equity cost of capital:
0.092
Equity cost of capital is 6.85% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.59%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.90%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.29%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.29%
WACC is 28.37% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$16.47
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.49
Annual revenue growth rate is 46.32% above the industry average
EPS:
$7.20
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
27.80%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 77.90% higher than the Financial Data & Stock Exchanges industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.76
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 37.46%
Equity growth rate per share is 29.38% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$22.72
EBITDA per share
$12.73
Valuation Analysis Today of
ICE
P/E Ratio:
16.95
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
27.57
P/E ratio is -38.53% lower than main peers & is -45.52% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $223.96
ICE is -54.78% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $53.20
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $25.26
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
6.15
Price to sales ratio is -38.01% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.49
Price to free cash flow: 21.26
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
108.48%
Net income growth rate is 69.62% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 5.26%
Dividend yeild: 1.40%
Previous Dividend: $0.38
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.38
Previous Dividend: $1.42
Expected next dividend best case: $0.41
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.35
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.32
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 3.42%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-14--$0.38
2021-12-16--$0.33
2021-06-15--$0.33
2022-03-16--$0.38
2021-09-15--$0.33
2021-03-16--$0.33
Dividend growth rate is -62.14% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
55.98%
Net debt to equity ratio:
61.00%
Debt to assets ratio:
6.09%
Net debt to assets ratio:
6.63%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -88.94% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
16.96
Interest coverage ratio is -43.52% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-15.94%
Annual debt growth is -157% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.718
Statistical significance of correlation:
ICE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.632
Stock price is 13.60% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.632
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.003
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.003
Kurtosis
8.705
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.654
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ICE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
222%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
38.58%
Operating profit margin is 10.68% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
222%
Effective Tax Rate:
28.28%
Effective tax rate is 26.59% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
17.95%
Return on equity (ROE) is -64.73% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.95%
Return on assets (ROA) is -82.72% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
1.01
Current ratio is -40.56% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-13.7
Cash conversion cycle is -155.77% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.93%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.0M
Each employee generates 21% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
795.3K
Each employee generates 84% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
455.3K
Each employee generates 71% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
73.1K
Each employee generates -57% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
4.4M
Each employee generates -57% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
ICE
ICICI BANK LIMITED (XNYS:IBN)
BMO
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (XNYS:MUFG)
MARSH & MCLENNAN COMPANIES, INC. (XNYS:MMC)
Blackstone Inc (XNYS:BX)
USB-PP
UBS
CAPITAL ONE FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNYS:COF)
THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION (XNYS:PGR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�33%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
9.20B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
4.10B
5.10B
-
452.00M
452.00M
-
1.01B
1.46B
2.00M
419.00M
1.01B
7.11B
3.55B
4.07B
5.70B
1.61B
4.07B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
254.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 86000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
38.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 168000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 480000.00K
Other Working Capital:
411.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
51.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
756.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 651000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
638.00M
-
638.00M
1.70B
-
167.04B
169.38B
1.73B
21.14B
13.58B
-
-
2.66B
39.11B
-
208.49B
733.00M
1.78B
-
589.00M
165.38B
168.48B
12.69B
606.00M
17.31B
-
185.79B
6.00M
14.79B
- 221000.0K
8.09B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
5.56B
22.67B
208.45B
-
14.47B
13.8B
1.71B
- 176000.00K
882.00M
-
-
- 544000.00K
- 214000.00K
14.44B
13.68B
- 1000.00K
15.32B
163.29B
147.98B
756.00M
- 103000.00K
653.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ICE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$107.87
$179.59
$190.31
$201.67
$213.71