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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Intercept Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (XNAS:ICPT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ICPT
Name:
INTERCEPT PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:ICPT)
Sector:
- 20131.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Dr. Mark Pruzanski
Total Employees:
437
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -46.06% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF INTERCEPT PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.(ICPT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
17.82
One Month Price Target:
$17.93
Six Month Price Target :
$18.49
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$19.16
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$17.64
Price Upper limit ($) :
$17.94
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$16.01
This week:
$13.76
This month :
$9.71
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
639.03M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
39.16M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
23.77%
-39.73%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$26.25
$22.48
$9.39
$13.16
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$21.25
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$20.45
$14.38
$15.19
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ICPT
Sharpe Ratio:
-3.33%
Comparison:
ICPT, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -271.13% lower than the industry
& is -245.99% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ICPT
Daily returns:
-0.15%
Weekly returns:
-0.77%
Monthly returns:
-3.07%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -246.10% below industry average
Classification:
ICPT, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.35
Statistical test of Returns:
ICPT has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.88%
Weekly Volatility:
10.91%
Monthly Volatility:
21.83%
Yearly Volatility:
75.61%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
8.43%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 72.77% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.18%
Weekly VaR:
-22.76%
Monthly VaR:
-45.51%
How Much Can the price of
ICPT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-42%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$10.33
This translates to price declining to:
$2.67
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ICPT is a 221.23% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 175.20% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 2.66% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ICPT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.12
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.807
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.141
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.05
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.933
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.803
Beta is 39.22% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -2.94% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
59.11%
Sustainable growth rate is 12.71% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.477
Alpha is -436.01% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -3034% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ICPT
Equity cost of capital:
0.108
Equity cost of capital is -2.10% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
-8.29%
After-tax cost of debt:
-6.55%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-6.55%
WACC is -256.76% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$9.46
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-1.88
Annual revenue growth rate is -85.81% below industry average
EPS:
-$2.26
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-35.89%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -459.59% lower than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$18.49
EBITDA per share
-$3.17
Valuation Analysis Today of
ICPT
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
55.44
-
-
ICPT is -108.79% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.88
Price to sales ratio is -95.35% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-1.88
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-73.48%
Net income growth rate is -204.11% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-194.77%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-182.22%
Debt to assets ratio:
143.85%
Net debt to assets ratio:
134.58%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 241.22% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
2.07
Interest coverage ratio is -101.75% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-41.79%
Annual debt growth is -131% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.369
Statistical significance of correlation:
ICPT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is 8.38% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.045
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.127
Kurtosis
9.105
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.447
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ICPT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
397%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-9.88%
Operating profit margin is -97.70% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
397%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
18.37%
Return on equity (ROE) is -132.04% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-13.57%
Return on assets (ROA) is -33.50% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
-2.3x
Current Ratio:
3.16
Current ratio is -60.96% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
298
Cash conversion cycle is -44.08% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-9.84%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
847.6K
Each employee generates -47% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 284.4K
Each employee generates -174% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 156.3K
Each employee generates -222% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 46.1K
Each employee generates -131% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
59.5K
Each employee generates -131% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -3.24%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -9.56% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
ICPT
NKARTA, INC. (XNAS:NKTX)
Athira Pharma, Inc. (XNAS:ATHA)
DERMTECH, INC. (XNAS:DMTK)
Vera Therapeutics Inc (XNAS:VERA)
MERSANA THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:MRSN)
VERU INC. (XNAS:VERU)
FINCH THERAPEUTICS GROUP, INC. (XNAS:FNCH)
Viridian Therapeutics, Inc. (XNAS:VRDN)
Aadi Bioscience, Inc. (XNAS:AADI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�29%
Hold�33%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
370.39M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
3.05M
367.34M
182.60M
-
221.59M
-
3.01M
407.20M
-
- 60165.00K
4.18M
- 124276.00K
- 36598.00K
- 68290.00K
- 68290.00K
-
- 68290.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
375.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
6.72M
Change in Working Capital :
- 12786.00K
Accounts Receivables:
1.12M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.85M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 20124.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 7.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 142789.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
48.32M
347.38M
395.70M
46.14M
-
35.51M
477.35M
10.82M
-
-
-
-
15.18M
26.00M
-
503.36M
10.39M
1.65M
-
-
139.00M
151.04M
724.08M
-
724.08M
-
875.12M
30.00K
- 2375988.00K
- 3487.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
410.25M
- 371761.00K
503.36M
-
725.73M
677.4M
128.58M
-
- 14220.00K
-
-
-
-
- 318.00K
- 318.00K
- 274.00K
- 34936.00K
59.47M
94.41M
- 20124.00K
- 7.00K
- 20131.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ICPT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$19.22
$20.66
$22.22
$23.89
$25.68