_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (XNAS:IBKR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
IBKR
Name:
INTERACTIVE BROKERS GROUP, INC. (XNAS:IBKR)
Sector:
2.11B
Industry:
Capital Markets
CEO:
Mr. Milan Galik
Total Employees:
2,780
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -47.64% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF INTERACTIVE BROKERS GROUP, INC.(IBKR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND CAPITAL MARKETS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
61.82
One Month Price Target:
$62.08
Six Month Price Target :
$63.39
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$64.96
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$61.61
Price Upper limit ($) :
$62.11
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$58.84
This week:
$55.15
This month :
$48.48
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
27.42B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
422.72M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.48%
-10.36%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$75.66
$69.27
$47.98
$54.37
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$67.19
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$65.83
$56.43
$57.81
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
IBKR
Sharpe Ratio:
2.52%
Comparison:
IBKR, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -27.82% lower than the industry
& ratio is 10.66% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
IBKR
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.34%
Monthly returns:
1.38%
Yearly returns:
25.05%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -33.94% below industry average
Classification:
IBKR, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.84
Statistical test of Returns:
IBKR has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.38%
Weekly Volatility:
5.33%
Monthly Volatility:
10.66%
Yearly Volatility:
36.92%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.76%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -26.06% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.82%
Weekly VaR:
-10.79%
Monthly VaR:
-21.58%
How Much Can the price of
IBKR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-18%
Worst case (decline):
-74.75%
This translates to price declining to:
$50.51
This translates to price declining to:
$15.61
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
IBKR is a 52.29% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 30.47% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -13.27% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
IBKR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.76
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.61
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.862
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.141
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.819
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.714
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.379
Beta is -45.24% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.144
Beta is -34.01% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
12.06%
Sustainable growth rate is -47.45% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.082
Alpha is -41.51% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 524% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
IBKR
Equity cost of capital:
0.083
Equity cost of capital is -24.26% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
1.55%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.72%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.57%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.57%
WACC is -23.01% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$6.66
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.49
Annual revenue growth rate is -100.48% below industry average
EPS:
$1.68
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
15.37%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -70.72% lower than the Capital Markets industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$42.27
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -1.94%
Equity growth rate per share is -101.93% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$27.63
EBITDA per share
$1.33
Valuation Analysis Today of
IBKR
P/E Ratio:
24.04
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
13.25
P/E ratio is 81.36% higher than main peers & is 20.22% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $33.59
IBKR is 84.04% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $16.21
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $4.81
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
9.28
Price to sales ratio is 116.56% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.49
Price to free cash flow: 1.46
Price to free cash flow ratio is -97.41% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
36.39%
Net income growth rate is -130.11% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 3.28%
Dividend yeild: 0.65%
Previous Dividend: $0.10
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.10
Previous Dividend: $0.40
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.10
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/12/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 30/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 14/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/01/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-05-31--$0.10
2021-11-30--$0.10
2021-05-28--$0.10
2022-02-28--$0.10
2021-08-31--$0.10
2021-02-26--$0.10
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
475.53%
Net debt to equity ratio:
367.39%
Debt to assets ratio:
10.21%
Net debt to assets ratio:
7.89%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -86.24% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.68
Interest coverage ratio is -86.92% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
18.48%
Annual debt growth is -16% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.672
Statistical significance of correlation:
IBKR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.637
Stock price is 5.59% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.637
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.007
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.01
Kurtosis
3.958
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.234
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
IBKR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
281%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
57.53%
Operating profit margin is 197.00% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
281%
Effective Tax Rate:
8.17%
Effective tax rate is -58.87% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
11.16%
Return on equity (ROE) is -54.21% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.24%
Return on assets (ROA) is -95.64% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
1.23
Current ratio is -70.82% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
7.66%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.0M
Each employee generates -45% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
201.8K
Each employee generates -28% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
98.6K
Each employee generates -42% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
757.6K
Each employee generates -3364% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
508.6K
Each employee generates -3364% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
IBKR
Nasdaq, Inc. (XNAS:NDAQ)
FIFTH THIRD BANCORP (XNAS:FITB)
Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company (XNAS:WTW)
NORTHERN TRUST CORPORATION (XNAS:NTRS)
GRAB HOLDINGS LIMITED (XNAS:GRAB)
HUNTINGTON BANCSHARES INCORPORATED (XNAS:HBAN)
ANZU SPECIAL ACQUISITION I UNT (XNAS:ANZUU)
CMLFU
Signature Bank (XNAS:SBNY)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.82B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
841.00M
1.98B
-
270.00M
270.00M
-
85.00M
355.00M
632.00M
84.00M
77.00M
561.00M
1.62B
274.00M
1.54B
126.00M
274.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
21.00M
Differed Income Tax :
2.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
21.00M
Change in Working Capital :
1.71B
Accounts Receivables:
6.63B
Other Working Capital:
- 9229000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
4.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
2.13B
Investments in PP&E:
- 19000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
2.67B
-
2.67B
56.88B
-
53.46B
113.01B
-
-
-
5.02B
-
- 3608000.00K
1.41B
-
114.42B
91.60B
11.00M
-
-
460.00M
92.07B
11.68B
190.00M
11.87B
-
103.94B
1.00M
1.02B
- 6000.0K
1.44B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.20B
2.46B
106.40B
-
11.69B
9.0B
-
5.00M
- 14000.00K
-
-
-
- 9000.00K
- 96000.00K
- 105000.00K
- 41000.00K
1.97B
27.25B
25.28B
2.13B
- 19000.00K
2.11B
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
IBKR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$58.67
$61.65
$64.77
$68.06
$71.51