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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Inter Parfums, Inc. (XNAS:IPAR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
IPAR
Name:
INTER PARFUMS, INC. (XNAS:IPAR)
Sector:
- 37486.00K
Industry:
Household & Personal Products
CEO:
Mr. Philippe Benacin
Total Employees:
467
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 332.26% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF INTER PARFUMS, INC.(IPAR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND HOUSEHOLD & PERSONAL PRODUCTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
78.12
One Month Price Target:
$78.57
Six Month Price Target :
$80.8
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$83.49
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$77.76
Price Upper limit ($) :
$78.58
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$73.22
This week:
$67.17
This month :
$56.22
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.45B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
31.86M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.61%
-28.23%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$100.84
$90.40
$55.40
$65.84
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$87.01
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$84.78
$69.21
$71.46
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
IPAR
Sharpe Ratio:
1.71%
Comparison:
IPAR, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 42.18% higher than the industry
& is -25.04% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
IPAR
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.31%
Monthly returns:
1.23%
Yearly returns:
9.25%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 59.56% above industry average
Classification:
IPAR, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.22
Statistical test of Returns:
IPAR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.08%
Weekly Volatility:
6.89%
Monthly Volatility:
13.78%
Yearly Volatility:
47.74%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.95%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -69.22% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.27%
Weekly VaR:
-14.01%
Monthly VaR:
-28.03%
How Much Can the price of
IPAR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$59.31
This translates to price declining to:
$11.72
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
IPAR is a 97.82% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 69.48% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 24.72% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
IPAR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.02
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.67
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.948
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.856
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.685
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.05
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.54
Beta is 89.51% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.835
Beta is 22.44% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
12.90%
Sustainable growth rate is -55.51% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.046
Alpha is 1111.31% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 293% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
IPAR
Equity cost of capital:
0.102
Equity cost of capital is 14.47% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.50%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.78%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.19%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.19%
WACC is 44.70% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$29.24
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.28
Annual revenue growth rate is 47.82% above the industry average
EPS:
$2.98
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
12.72%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -75.74% lower than the Household & Personal Products industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 19.15%
Equity growth rate per share is 88.37% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$4.83
EBITDA per share
$5.60
Valuation Analysis Today of
IPAR
P/E Ratio:
24.93
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
30.5
P/E ratio is -18.26% lower than main peers & is -5.71% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $78.80
IPAR is -0.87% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.67
Price to sales ratio is -26.67% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.28
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is 101.67% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
102.16%
Net income growth rate is -96.08% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 13.53%
Dividend yeild: 1.92%
Previous Dividend: $0.50
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.50
Previous Dividend: $1.50
Expected next dividend best case: $0.62
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.38
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.33
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 10.82%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-14--$0.50
2021-12-14--$0.25
2021-06-14--$0.25
2022-03-14--$0.50
2021-09-14--$0.25
2021-03-12--$0.25
Dividend growth rate is -199.25% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
26.30%
Net debt to equity ratio:
10.71%
Debt to assets ratio:
13.23%
Net debt to assets ratio:
5.39%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -80.73% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
37.16
Interest coverage ratio is 163.66% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
385.71%
Annual debt growth is 744% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.77%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.5
Statistical significance of correlation:
IPAR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.556
Stock price is -9.97% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.556
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.022
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.04
Kurtosis
15.696
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.864
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
IPAR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
253%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
17.31%
Operating profit margin is -313.98% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
253%
Effective Tax Rate:
26.21%
Effective tax rate is 23.31% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
20.13%
Return on equity (ROE) is -54.31% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
10.12%
Return on assets (ROA) is 149.14% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
2.94
Current ratio is 8.88% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
28.8
Cash conversion cycle is -72.66% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.56%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
2.0M
Each employee generates 199% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
381.8K
Each employee generates 168% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
252.0K
Each employee generates 196% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 80.3K
Each employee generates -3386% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
915.9K
Each employee generates -3386% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
IPAR
OLLIE'S BARGAIN OUTLET HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:OLLI)
J & J SNACK FOODS CORP. (XNAS:JJSF)
Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (XNAS:SFM)
GRAND CANYON EDUCATION, INC. (XNAS:LOPE)
HOSTESS BRANDS, INC. (XNAS:TWNK)
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (XNAS:GO)
CENTRAL GARDEN & PET COMPANY (XNAS:CENT)
CENTRAL GARDEN & PET COMPANY (XNAS:CENTA)
THE SIMPLY GOOD FOODS COMPANY (XNAS:SMPL)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�8%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
931.67M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
341.35M
590.31M
-
-
429.00M
-
-
429.00M
2.47M
4.80M
13.29M
178.28M
161.31M
117.66M
162.22M
42.52M
117.66M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.12M
Differed Income Tax :
135.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
654.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 73158.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 50316.00K
Other Working Capital:
9.69M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 990.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 23944.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 12895.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 2243.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
110.12M
155.11M
265.24M
218.96M
227.11M
23.16M
734.47M
189.24M
-
208.96M
-
7.66M
21.88M
427.74M
-
1.16B
72.57M
19.02M
13.92M
-
158.64M
250.23M
153.74M
-
153.74M
-
403.97M
32.00K
580.09M
- 46273.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
770.36M
584.56M
988.53M
-
172.76M
62.6M
3.98M
- 647.00K
- 11803.00K
- 4379.00K
-
-
- 15921.00K
268.00K
- 20032.00K
- 2486.00K
- 58265.00K
110.12M
168.39M
- 23944.00K
- 13542.00K
- 37486.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
IPAR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$98.73
$105.52
$112.77
$120.52
$128.80