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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Intel Corporation (XNAS:INTC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
INTC
Name:
INTEL CORPORATION (XNAS:INTC)
Sector:
1.09B
Industry:
Semiconductors
CEO:
Mr. Robert Swan
Total Employees:
121,100
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -106.21% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF INTEL CORPORATION(INTC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SEMICONDUCTORS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
31.22
One Month Price Target:
$31.33
Six Month Price Target :
$31.9
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$32.58
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$31.06
Price Upper limit ($) :
$31.34
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$29.52
This week:
$27.41
This month :
$23.6
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
124.66B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
4.11B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
19.52%
-18.04%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$39.13
$35.57
$23.31
$26.87
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$34.42
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$33.66
$28.01
$28.78
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
INTC
Sharpe Ratio:
-2.34%
Comparison:
INTC, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -175.69% lower than the industry
& is -202.82% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
INTC
Daily returns:
-0.05%
Weekly returns:
-0.26%
Monthly returns:
-1.06%
Yearly returns:
31.95%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -139.67% below industry average
Classification:
INTC, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.69
Statistical test of Returns:
INTC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.63%
Weekly Volatility:
5.88%
Monthly Volatility:
11.76%
Yearly Volatility:
40.75%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.69%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -73.67% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.46%
Weekly VaR:
-12.20%
Monthly VaR:
-24.40%
How Much Can the price of
INTC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-84.51%
This translates to price declining to:
$24.29
This translates to price declining to:
$4.84
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
INTC is a 72.19% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 47.51% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -25.88% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
INTC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.65
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.629
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.89
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.503
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.012
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.825
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.316
Beta is -50.90% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.41
Beta is -54.19% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
16.13%
Sustainable growth rate is -41.66% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.202
Alpha is -205.82% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1289% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
INTC
Equity cost of capital:
0.076
Equity cost of capital is -40.86% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.90%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.77%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.98%
Overall debt rating:
Upper medium A grade (third highest grade),CO8<=0.0429,"Medium BBB grade (Fourth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.98%
WACC is -36.56% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$18.92
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.24
Annual revenue growth rate is -9.53% below industry average
EPS:
$6.01
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.63%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -98.80% lower than the Semiconductors industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.43
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 15.65%
Equity growth rate per share is 10.56% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$7.99
EBITDA per share
$10.01
Valuation Analysis Today of
INTC
P/E Ratio:
6.7
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
25.5
P/E ratio is -73.74% lower than main peers & is -83.86% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $249.28
INTC is -87.48% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $59.93
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $23.83
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.65
Price to sales ratio is -79.70% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.24
Price to free cash flow: 12.86
Price to free cash flow ratio is -67.93% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
7.15%
Net income growth rate is -112.49% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 6.04%
Dividend yeild: 4.56%
Previous Dividend: $0.37
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.37
Previous Dividend: $1.42
Expected next dividend best case: $0.38
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.35
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.34
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.51%
Expected next dividend payment date: 30/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/05/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 07/12/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/07/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 13/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-05--$0.37
2021-11-04--$0.35
2021-05-06--$0.35
2022-02-04--$0.37
2021-08-05--$0.35
2021-02-04--$0.35
Dividend growth rate is -43.13% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
31.79%
Net debt to equity ratio:
30.09%
Debt to assets ratio:
18.59%
Net debt to assets ratio:
17.60%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -52.31% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
29.27
Interest coverage ratio is -10.71% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
4.67%
Annual debt growth is -95% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.90%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.698
Statistical significance of correlation:
INTC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.627
Stock price is 11.22% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.627
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.002
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.003
Kurtosis
11.64
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.379
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
INTC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
217%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
25.87%
Operating profit margin is 9.96% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
217%
Effective Tax Rate:
10.34%
Effective tax rate is -31.51% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
23.87%
Return on equity (ROE) is -16.52% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
13.96%
Return on assets (ROA) is 6.05% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
2.13
Current ratio is -47.46% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
11.6
Cash conversion cycle is -78.89% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.87%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
641.7K
Each employee generates 4% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
339.4K
Each employee generates 46% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
203.3K
Each employee generates 26% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
9.0K
Each employee generates -67% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
939.6K
Each employee generates -67% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 12.05%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -14.87% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
INTC
QUALCOMM INCORPORATED (XNAS:QCOM)
ADOBE INC. (XNAS:ADBE)
Broadcom Inc. (XNAS:AVGO)
TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INCORPORATED (XNAS:TXN)
INTUIT INC. (XNAS:INTU)
ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES, INC. (XNAS:AMD)
APPLIED MATERIALS, INC. (XNAS:AMAT)
ASML Holding NV (XNAS:ASML)
MICRON TECHNOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:MU)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�75%
Hold�54%
Sell�13%
Strong sell�8%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/2/22
Revenue:
77.70B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
35.50B
42.21B
15.93B
-
6.97B
-
-
22.90B
107.00M
1.40B
12.24B
41.10B
20.10B
24.62B
27.46B
2.84B
24.62B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.35B
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
707.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 848000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
2.38B
Other Working Capital:
- 1957000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 5429000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
5.89B
Investments in PP&E:
- 4797000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
6.54B
Purchases of Investments:
- 19091000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/2/22
2022
Q1
6.22B
32.48B
38.70B
7.07B
11.94B
4.86B
62.57B
66.72B
27.01B
6.81B
6.04B
-
7.21B
113.79B
-
176.36B
7.21B
4.46B
-
-
17.65B
29.32B
32.79B
9.56B
43.90B
-
73.22B
29.24B
74.89B
- 1002000.0K
-
April 2, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
58.40B
103.14B
176.36B
38.52B
37.25B
31.0B
15.17B
- 468000.00K
- 2640000.00K
- 299000.00K
-
-
- 1487000.00K
- 77000.00K
- 1863000.00K
-
1.39B
6.22B
4.83B
5.89B
- 4797000.00K
1.09B
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
INTC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$32.74
$72.04
$75.16
$78.43
$81.83