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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Insulet Corporation (XNAS:PODD) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PODD
Name:
INSULET CORPORATION (XNAS:PODD)
Sector:
- 29600.00K
Industry:
Medical Devices
CEO:
Ms. Shacey Petrovic
Total Employees:
2,300
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -6081.73% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF INSULET CORPORATION(PODD) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL DEVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
254.35
One Month Price Target:
$255.38
Six Month Price Target :
$260.55
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$266.75
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$253.31
Price Upper limit ($) :
$255.87
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$239.12
This week:
$220.29
This month :
$186.23
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
17.34B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
69.40M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.37%
-16.84%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$325.00
$292.34
$183.70
$216.36
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$281.71
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$274.74
$226.90
$233.96
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PODD
Sharpe Ratio:
2.88%
Comparison:
PODD, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 90.13% higher than the industry
& ratio is 26.34% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PODD
Daily returns:
0.09%
Weekly returns:
0.47%
Monthly returns:
1.88%
Yearly returns:
15.36%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 47.12% above industry average
Classification:
PODD, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.51
Statistical test of Returns:
PODD has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.96%
Weekly Volatility:
6.62%
Monthly Volatility:
13.25%
Yearly Volatility:
45.88%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.72%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -41.90% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.99%
Weekly VaR:
-13.39%
Monthly VaR:
-26.78%
How Much Can the price of
PODD
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
-92.78%
This translates to price declining to:
$196.86
This translates to price declining to:
$18.37
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PODD is a 89.03% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 61.94% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -5.66% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PODD
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.73
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.718
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.015
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.191
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.915
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.437
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.812
Beta is -10.65% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.065
Beta is -31.85% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.145
Alpha is 194.54% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 921% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PODD
Equity cost of capital:
0.081
Equity cost of capital is -22.24% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.13%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.76%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.97%
Overall debt rating:
Upper medium A grade (third highest grade),CO8<=0.0429,"Medium BBB grade (Fourth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.97%
WACC is -40.76% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$16.45
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
39.52
Annual revenue growth rate is -82.15% below industry average
EPS:
$0.61
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
8.10%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -30.07% lower than the Medical Devices industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$20.03
EBITDA per share
$2.34
Valuation Analysis Today of
PODD
P/E Ratio:
533.83
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
87.77
P/E ratio is 508.22% higher than main peers & is 119.19% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $148.56
PODD is 71.21% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
15.46
Price to sales ratio is 66.08% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
39.52
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
336.16%
Net income growth rate is 246.11% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
311.28%
Net debt to equity ratio:
158.43%
Debt to assets ratio:
67.20%
Net debt to assets ratio:
34.20%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 73.45% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.05
Interest coverage ratio is -77.12% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
20.26%
Annual debt growth is -92% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.44%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.49
Statistical significance of correlation:
PODD has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.468
Stock price is 4.81% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.468
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.01
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.018
Kurtosis
4.369
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.079
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PODD
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
278%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
12.93%
Operating profit margin is -175.71% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
278%
Effective Tax Rate:
9.90%
Effective tax rate is -81.98% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.98%
Return on equity (ROE) is -201.84% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.16%
Return on assets (ROA) is -163.94% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
3.0x
Current Ratio:
5.98
Current ratio is -7.52% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
93.3
Cash conversion cycle is 67.25% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
21.30%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
496.5K
Each employee generates 32% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
70.7K
Each employee generates 1031% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
19.4K
Each employee generates -165% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 12.9K
Each employee generates -9% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
340.8K
Each employee generates -9% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 9.06%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -7009.30% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
PODD
ROYALTY PHARMA PLC (XNAS:RPRX)
HOLOGIC, INC. (XNAS:HOLX)
ALNYLAM PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:ALNY)
PPD
argenx SE (XNAS:ARGX)
BIO-TECHNE CORPORATION (XNAS:TECH)
INCYTE CORPORATION (XNAS:INCY)
BIOMARIN PHARMACEUTICAL INC. (XNAS:BMRN)
ABIOMED, INC. (XNAS:ABMD)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�25%
Buy�17%
Hold�29%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.14B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
347.60M
794.30M
162.50M
-
484.20M
-
-
646.70M
400.00K
53.30M
59.90M
162.70M
147.60M
44.60M
49.50M
4.90M
44.60M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
15.30M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
9.50M
Change in Working Capital :
- 68000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 30000.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.70M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 13700.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 26000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 5000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
708.50M
-
708.50M
189.30M
314.80M
72.80M
1.29B
538.20M
51.80M
52.80M
-
-
141.00M
783.80M
-
2.07B
52.20M
25.70M
-
-
137.10M
215.00M
1.39B
17.00M
1.41B
-
1.62B
100.00K
- 561100.00K
12.2M
995.50M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
994.30M
446.70M
2.07B
-
1.42B
707.7M
-
- 15900.00K
- 46900.00K
- 6100.00K
-
-
-
- 14200.00K
- 20300.00K
- 600.00K
- 81500.00K
724.90M
806.40M
- 13700.00K
- 15900.00K
- 29600.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PODD
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$269.19
$282.32
$296.09
$310.53
$325.67