_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Inseego Corp. (XNAS:INSG) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
INSG
Name:
INSEEGO CORP. (XNAS:INSG)
Sector:
- 4528.00K
Industry:
Communication Equipment
CEO:
Mr. Dan Mondor
Total Employees:
500
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -138.27% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF INSEEGO CORP.(INSG) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
2.53
One Month Price Target:
$2.55
Six Month Price Target :
$2.67
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$2.81
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$2.51
Price Upper limit ($) :
$2.55
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$2.28
This week:
$1.96
This month :
$1.4
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
264.86M
Market Cap Classification:
Micro Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
107.67M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
23.51%
-29.61%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$3.70
$3.17
$1.36
$1.89
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$3.00
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$2.89
$2.06
$2.17
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
INSG
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.99%
Comparison:
INSG, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -176.39% lower than the industry
& is -143.45% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
INSG
Daily returns:
-0.04%
Weekly returns:
-0.20%
Monthly returns:
-0.78%
Yearly returns:
12.89%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -172.91% below industry average
Classification:
INSG, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.63
Statistical test of Returns:
INSG has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.85%
Weekly Volatility:
10.84%
Monthly Volatility:
21.67%
Yearly Volatility:
75.08%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.10%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -56.66% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.99%
Weekly VaR:
-22.34%
Monthly VaR:
-44.69%
How Much Can the price of
INSG
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-40%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$1.52
This translates to price declining to:
$0.38
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
INSG is a 215.41% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 170.21% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 52.95% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
INSG
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.62
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.31
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.852
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-0.452
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.399
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.082
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.725
Beta is -6.11% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.197
Beta is 35.28% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
374.79%
Sustainable growth rate is 720.44% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.236
Alpha is -1640.52% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1505% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
INSG
Equity cost of capital:
0.142
Equity cost of capital is 25.49% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-3.98%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-3.63%
After-tax cost of debt:
-2.87%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-2.87%
WACC is -89.90% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$2.47
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-7.97
Annual revenue growth rate is -221.71% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.58
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-0.65%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -104.03% lower than the Communication Equipment industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$1.46
EBITDA per share
-$0.33
Valuation Analysis Today of
INSG
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
141.37
-
-
INSG is -111.75% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.02
Price to sales ratio is -55.31% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-7.97
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
280.01%
Net income growth rate is -38.59% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-461.04%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-345.77%
Debt to assets ratio:
77.20%
Net debt to assets ratio:
57.90%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 39.52% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.17
Interest coverage ratio is -83.07% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-100.00%
Annual debt growth is 886% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.07%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.455
Statistical significance of correlation:
INSG has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.552
Stock price is -17.65% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.552
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.068
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.191
Kurtosis
5.163
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.234
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
INSG
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
109%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-19.57%
Operating profit margin is -404.37% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
109%
Effective Tax Rate:
0.62%
Effective tax rate is -97.77% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
163.68%
Return on equity (ROE) is 371.24% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-27.41%
Return on assets (ROA) is -727.63% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
4.4x
Current Ratio:
1.59
Current ratio is -28.59% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-39.8
Cash conversion cycle is -163.57% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-20.01%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
532.4K
Each employee generates -3% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 71.5K
Each employee generates -195% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 111.9K
Each employee generates -553% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 9.1K
Each employee generates 474% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
177.7K
Each employee generates 474% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 17.17%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -842.19% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
INSG
TUCOWS INC. (XNAS:TCX)
PHOTRONICS, INC. (XNAS:PLAB)
VDSI
SKYWATER TECHNOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:SKYT)
Cantaloupe, Inc. (XNAS:CTLP)
MAGIC SOFTWARE ENTERPRISES LTD. (XNAS:MGIC)
ALPHA AND OMEGA SEMICONDUCTOR LIMITED (XNAS:AOSL)
EBIX, INC. (XNAS:EBIX)
ADTRAN HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:ADTN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�8%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
266.19M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
193.49M
72.70M
56.68M
27.84M
64.85M
37.00M
3.27M
124.79M
-
- 5796.00K
26.34M
- 35766.00K
- 52092.00K
- 55961.00K
- 56527.00K
- 352.00K
- 55961.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
7.24M
Differed Income Tax :
189.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
11.20M
Change in Working Capital :
3.89M
Accounts Receivables:
5.48M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.07M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 638.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 763.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
41.52M
-
41.52M
26.99M
37.47M
9.34M
115.32M
20.24M
21.92M
46.32M
-
-
378.00K
88.86M
-
204.18M
40.10M
2.11M
443.00K
7.62M
22.75M
72.58M
157.63M
7.11M
165.79M
-
238.37M
107.00K
- 812931.00K
- 5633.0K
784.27M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
318.28M
- 34190.00K
204.18M
-
159.74M
118.2M
-
- 3127.00K
- 3890.00K
- 116.00K
-
-
-
- 944.00K
- 1060.00K
957.00K
- 4631.00K
45.18M
49.81M
- 638.00K
- 3890.00K
- 4528.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
INSG
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$2.82
$3.13
$3.47
$3.84
$4.26