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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Inotiv, Inc. (XNAS:NOTV) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
NOTV
Name:
INOTIV, INC. (XNAS:NOTV)
Sector:
- 6798.00K
Industry:
Diagnostics & Research
CEO:
Mr. Robert Leasure
Total Employees:
541
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -75.29% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF INOTIV, INC.(NOTV) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DIAGNOSTICS & RESEARCH INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
20.31
One Month Price Target:
$20.62
Six Month Price Target :
$22.16
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$24.
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$20.19
Price Upper limit ($) :
$20.59
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$17.94
This week:
$15.01
This month :
$9.71
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
523.38M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
25.59M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
38.38%
-31.68%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$31.29
$26.12
$9.33
$14.50
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$24.43
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$23.33
$16.17
$17.29
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
NOTV
Sharpe Ratio:
6.54%
Comparison:
NOTV, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 159.80% higher than the industry
& ratio is 187.02% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
NOTV
Daily returns:
0.39%
Weekly returns:
1.97%
Monthly returns:
7.86%
Yearly returns:
27.92%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 237.92% above industry average
Classification:
NOTV, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.11
Statistical test of Returns:
NOTV has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.87%
Weekly Volatility:
13.13%
Monthly Volatility:
26.27%
Yearly Volatility:
90.99%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.73%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -87.64% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-11.67%
Weekly VaR:
-26.09%
Monthly VaR:
-52.19%
How Much Can the price of
NOTV
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-42%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$11.86
This translates to price declining to:
$3.05
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
NOTV is a 268.32% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 215.54% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 52.12% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
NOTV
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.71
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.348
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.906
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.923
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.364
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.418
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.458
Beta is 85.65% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.181
Beta is 129.17% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
20.90%
Sustainable growth rate is -60.44% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.726
Alpha is 335.64% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 4624% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
NOTV
Equity cost of capital:
0.217
Equity cost of capital is 92.98% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
15.41%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.68%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.70%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.70%
WACC is 91.39% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$10.84
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.88
Annual revenue growth rate is 6.24% above the industry average
EPS:
-$3.23
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
236.57%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 781.34% higher than the Diagnostics & Research industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$10.71
EBITDA per share
-$2.13
Valuation Analysis Today of
NOTV
P/E Ratio:
38.16
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
0
- & is 2.65% higher than the industry
-
NOTV is -116.91% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.87
Price to sales ratio is -80.29% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.88
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-3834.19%
Net income growth rate is 1577.55% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
46.38%
Net debt to equity ratio:
41.05%
Debt to assets ratio:
27.31%
Net debt to assets ratio:
24.17%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -43.80% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-4.09
Interest coverage ratio is -85.42% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
535.03%
Annual debt growth is 416% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 12.64%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.121
Statistical significance of correlation:
NOTV has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.488
Stock price is -75.14% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.488
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.015
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.052
Kurtosis
7.885
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.726
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
NOTV
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
122%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-11.13%
Operating profit margin is -90.11% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
122%
Effective Tax Rate:
12.11%
Effective tax rate is -36.88% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-13.05%
Return on equity (ROE) is -162.13% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-7.69%
Return on assets (ROA) is -97.15% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
1.63
Current ratio is -67.25% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
218.1
Cash conversion cycle is 339.28% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-24.83%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
512.9K
Each employee generates 38% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 100.9K
Each employee generates -436% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 142.6K
Each employee generates -992% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 12.6K
Each employee generates 477% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.5M
Each employee generates 477% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -57.37%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 3086.38% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
NOTV
SPERO THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:SPRO)
QUOTIENT LIMITED (XNAS:QTNT)
PUMA BIOTECHNOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:PBYI)
ONCORUS, INC. (XNAS:ONCR)
BEYONDSPRING INC. (XNAS:BYSI)
GAMIDA CELL LTD (XNAS:GMDA)
CLEARPOINT NEURO, INC. (XNAS:CLPT)
VIRACTA THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:VIRX)
Profound Medical Corp. (XNAS:PROF)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
277.49M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
195.49M
82.01M
222.00K
54.20M
63.71M
9.51M
17.13M
81.07M
-
13.34M
19.98M
- 54588.00K
- 30884.00K
- 77150.00K
- 88853.00K
- 10762.00K
- 77150.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
6.04M
Differed Income Tax :
- 14281.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
19.16M
Change in Working Capital :
8.59M
Accounts Receivables:
1.52M
Other Working Capital:
16.95M
Other Non-Cash Items:
62.40M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 1143.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 227022.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/31/21
2022
Q1
42.42M
-
42.42M
74.80M
36.07M
20.98M
174.26M
157.35M
451.81M
215.13M
-
-
5.34M
829.63M
-
1.00B
28.14M
10.92M
1.89M
44.53M
23.50M
107.08M
274.14M
2.10M
306.40M
-
413.48M
6.05M
- 94426.00K
137.0K
-
December 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
276.55M
591.02M
1.00B
-
285.05M
242.6M
-
- 5371.00K
- 232393.00K
- 39663.00K
-
-
-
159.13M
119.47M
-
- 114070.00K
42.85M
156.92M
- 1143.00K
- 5655.00K
- 6798.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
NOTV
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$24.08
$28.46
$33.63
$39.75
$46.98