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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Innoviva, Inc. (XNAS:INVA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
INVA
Name:
INNOVIVA, INC. (XNAS:INVA)
Sector:
98.09M
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Mr. Michael Aguiar
Total Employees:
5
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -14.11% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF INNOVIVA, INC.(INVA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
13.08
One Month Price Target:
$13.11
Six Month Price Target :
$13.29
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$13.5
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$13.02
Price Upper limit ($) :
$13.14
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$12.37
This week:
$11.48
This month :
$9.89
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
945.21M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
69.71M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.9%
-18.%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$16.39
$14.88
$9.77
$11.28
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$14.38
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$14.06
$11.77
$12.10
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
INVA
Sharpe Ratio:
0.89%
Comparison:
INVA, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -54.43% lower than the industry
& is -61.13% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
INVA
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.16%
Monthly returns:
0.65%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -69.05% below industry average
Classification:
INVA, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.94
Statistical test of Returns:
INVA has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.67%
Weekly Volatility:
5.98%
Monthly Volatility:
11.95%
Yearly Volatility:
41.40%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.97%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -63.89% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.46%
Weekly VaR:
-12.20%
Monthly VaR:
-24.40%
How Much Can the price of
INVA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-21%
Worst case (decline):
-84.53%
This translates to price declining to:
$10.31
This translates to price declining to:
$2.02
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
INVA is a 72.22% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 47.54% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -43.79% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
INVA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.48
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.554
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.784
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.246
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.559
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.774
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.299
Beta is -63.22% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -58.52% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
88.12%
Sustainable growth rate is 68.03% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.014
Alpha is -90.24% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 88% compared to market & is healthy
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
INVA
Equity cost of capital:
0.064
Equity cost of capital is -41.82% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.31%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.22%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.55%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.55%
WACC is -50.00% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$5.69
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.65
Annual revenue growth rate is -91.37% below industry average
EPS:
$2.13
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
22.80%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 128.42% higher than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.39
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is 2687.33% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$6.35
EBITDA per share
$4.00
Valuation Analysis Today of
INVA
P/E Ratio:
10.17
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
22.23
P/E ratio is -54.26% lower than main peers & is -88.67% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $191.12
INVA is -93.16% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.3
Price to sales ratio is -94.32% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.65
Price to free cash flow: 2.43
Price to free cash flow ratio is -89.90% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-33.02%
Net income growth rate is -146.78% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
114.51%
Net debt to equity ratio:
83.43%
Debt to assets ratio:
39.98%
Net debt to assets ratio:
29.13%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -5.17% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
16.04
Interest coverage ratio is -113.55% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
2.37%
Annual debt growth is -98% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 27.17%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.42
Statistical significance of correlation:
INVA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is 23.55% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.014
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.021
Kurtosis
8.435
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.274
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
INVA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
94.18%
Operating profit margin is -121.97% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
17.63%
Effective tax rate is 209.05% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
48.50%
Return on equity (ROE) is -184.58% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
16.93%
Return on assets (ROA) is -182.98% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
2.91
Current ratio is -64.06% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.51%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
79.3M
Each employee generates 4820% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
55.8M
Each employee generates 14376% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
37.5M
Each employee generates 29206% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
19.6M
Each employee generates 13223% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
157.9M
Each employee generates 13223% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -67.79%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 1789.40% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
INVA
REPLIMUNE GROUP, INC. (XNAS:REPL)
ATRION CORPORATION (XNAS:ATRI)
SNDL Inc. (XNAS:SNDL)
AVEANNA HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC. (XNAS:AVAH)
AMPHASTAR PHARMACEUTICALS INC (XNAS:AMPH)
NURIX THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:NRIX)
TIVITY HEALTH, INC. (XNAS:TVTY)
KEROS THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:KROS)
AXSOME THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:AXSM)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�8%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
396.41M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
107.68M
6.37M
16.69M
16.69M
-
-
23.06M
1.25M
17.39M
10.42M
278.87M
373.35M
187.50M
360.56M
63.56M
187.50M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.50M
Differed Income Tax :
6.86M
Stock Based Compensation :
954.00K
Change in Working Capital :
18.20M
Accounts Receivables:
17.20M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
30.73M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
98.10M
Investments in PP&E:
- 9.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 35162.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 132266.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
216.80M
-
216.80M
93.52M
-
7.51M
317.82M
3.99M
5.54M
105.00M
544.44M
22.40M
108.29M
789.65M
-
1.11B
1.81M
96.64M
-
-
10.78M
109.23M
442.73M
3.30M
446.03M
-
555.26M
696.00K
- 403137.00K
-
789.08M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
23.06M
386.64M
941.90M
-
539.37M
322.6M
-
24.28M
- 143156.00K
- 165131.00K
260.00K
- 46.00K
-
225.25M
60.33M
-
15.28M
216.80M
201.53M
98.10M
- 9.00K
98.09M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
INVA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$13.57
$30.58
$31.56
$32.57
$33.62