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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Ingredion Incorporated (XNYS:INGR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
INGR
Name:
INGREDION INCORPORATED (XNYS:INGR)
Sector:
- 137000.00K
Industry:
Packaged Foods
CEO:
Mr. James Zallie
Total Employees:
12,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -122.54% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF INGREDION INCORPORATED(INGR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND PACKAGED FOODS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
85.51
One Month Price Target:
$85.88
Six Month Price Target :
$87.71
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$89.91
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$85.22
Price Upper limit ($) :
$85.83
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$81.81
This week:
$77.24
This month :
$68.97
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.51B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
65.52M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
10.84%
-14.04%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$102.68
$94.84
$68.34
$76.18
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$92.29
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$90.61
$78.71
$80.41
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
INGR
Sharpe Ratio:
0.47%
Comparison:
INGR, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -63.88% lower than the industry
& is -79.23% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
INGR
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.09%
Monthly returns:
0.38%
Yearly returns:
8.42%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -46.23% below industry average
Classification:
INGR, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.97
Statistical test of Returns:
INGR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.12%
Weekly Volatility:
4.73%
Monthly Volatility:
9.46%
Yearly Volatility:
32.77%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.31%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -85.50% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.33%
Weekly VaR:
-9.67%
Monthly VaR:
-19.34%
How Much Can the price of
INGR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-17%
Worst case (decline):
-67.01%
This translates to price declining to:
$71.06
This translates to price declining to:
$28.21
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
INGR is a 36.54% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 16.97% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -7.52% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
INGR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.77
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.583
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.824
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.539
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.568
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.605
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.309
Beta is -41.51% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.586
Beta is 30.68% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.039
Alpha is -408.18% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -246% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
INGR
Equity cost of capital:
0.084
Equity cost of capital is 17.19% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.91%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.51%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.77%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.77%
WACC is 18.29% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$109.46
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.64
Annual revenue growth rate is -55.43% below industry average
EPS:
$7.28
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-34.55%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -291.54% lower than the Packaged Foods industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 6.82%
Equity growth rate per share is 40.56% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$26.54
EBITDA per share
$13.97
Valuation Analysis Today of
INGR
P/E Ratio:
12.63
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
27.47
P/E ratio is -54.05% lower than main peers & is -67.33% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $281.30
INGR is -69.60% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $47.20
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $32.26
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.78
Price to sales ratio is -66.31% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.64
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is 90.28% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-72.09%
Net income growth rate is -770.12% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 8.72%
Dividend yeild: 3.04%
Previous Dividend: $0.65
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.65
Previous Dividend: $2.60
Expected next dividend best case: $0.66
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.64
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.64
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.31%
Expected next dividend payment date: 24/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/09/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 18/08/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 26/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 07/01/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 20/05/2022
Dividend History:
2022-06-30--$0.65
2021-12-31--$0.65
2021-06-30--$0.64
2022-03-31--$0.65
2021-10-01--$0.65
2021-03-31--$0.64
Dividend growth rate is -185.51% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
52.32%
Net debt to equity ratio:
58.03%
Debt to assets ratio:
23.39%
Net debt to assets ratio:
25.94%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -56.60% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
11.58
Interest coverage ratio is -95.30% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.67%
Annual debt growth is -100% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 6.61%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.604
Statistical significance of correlation:
INGR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.429
Stock price is 40.79% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.429
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.026
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.032
Kurtosis
11.205
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.95
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
INGR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
76%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
9.62%
Operating profit margin is 99.32% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
76%
Effective Tax Rate:
19.58%
Effective tax rate is -51.96% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
14.83%
Return on equity (ROE) is 34.26% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
6.63%
Return on assets (ROA) is 48.48% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
1.82
Current ratio is -33.72% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
28
Cash conversion cycle is -42.97% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
597.7K
Each employee generates -24% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
76.3K
Each employee generates -32% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
41.1K
Each employee generates -21% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 11.4K
Each employee generates 207% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
358.8K
Each employee generates 207% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
INGR
THE BOSTON BEER COMPANY, INC. (XNYS:SAM)
PERFORMANCE FOOD GROUP COMPANY (XNYS:PFGC)
Post Holdings, Inc. (XNYS:POST)
RLX Technology Inc. (XNYS:RLX)
Natura & Co Holding SA (XNYS:NTCO)
US FOODS HOLDING CORP. (XNYS:USFD)
COTY INC. (XNYS:COTY)
Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. (XNYS:HLF)
Nomad Foods Limited (XNYS:NOMD)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�4%
Hold�13%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
7.17B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
5.81B
1.36B
-
-
-
-
648.00M
648.00M
-
79.00M
221.00M
915.00M
690.00M
493.00M
623.00M
122.00M
493.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
53.00M
Differed Income Tax :
3.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 262000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 126000.00K
Other Working Capital:
28.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
21.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 52000.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
324.00M
5.00M
329.00M
1.43B
1.31B
63.00M
3.13B
2.45B
-
1.34B
-
-
521.00M
4.31B
-
7.44B
-
514.00M
-
-
1.21B
1.72B
1.74B
561.00M
2.30B
-
4.02B
1.00M
3.99B
- 763000.0K
100.00M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
6.46B
3.32B
7.35B
-
2.25B
1.9B
-
- 76000.00K
- 76000.00K
- 123000.00K
-
- 40000.00K
- 43000.00K
325.00M
119.00M
5.00M
- 4000.00K
324.00M
328.00M
- 52000.00K
- 85000.00K
- 137000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
INGR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$103.96
$109.31
$114.93
$120.85
$127.07