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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Ingles Markets, Incorporated (XNAS:IMKTA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
IMKTA
Name:
INGLES MARKETS, INCORPORATED (XNAS:IMKTA)
Sector:
73.65M
Industry:
Grocery Stores
CEO:
Mr. James Lanning
Total Employees:
10,260
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 115.31% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF INGLES MARKETS, INCORPORATED(IMKTA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND GROCERY STORES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
88.35
One Month Price Target:
$88.62
Six Month Price Target :
$89.95
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$91.56
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$88.1
Price Upper limit ($) :
$88.82
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$84.12
This week:
$78.9
This month :
$69.44
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.71B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
18.99M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.44%
-12.03%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$107.94
$98.78
$68.76
$77.92
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$95.80
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$93.85
$80.87
$82.85
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
IMKTA
Sharpe Ratio:
4.89%
Comparison:
IMKTA, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 28.49% higher than the industry
& ratio is 114.71% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
IMKTA
Daily returns:
0.13%
Weekly returns:
0.63%
Monthly returns:
2.52%
Yearly returns:
23.09%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 30.83% above industry average
Classification:
IMKTA, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.41
Statistical test of Returns:
IMKTA has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.39%
Weekly Volatility:
5.35%
Monthly Volatility:
10.69%
Yearly Volatility:
37.04%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.05%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -56.17% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.78%
Weekly VaR:
-10.70%
Monthly VaR:
-21.40%
How Much Can the price of
IMKTA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-17%
Worst case (decline):
-74.12%
This translates to price declining to:
$72.91
This translates to price declining to:
$22.86
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
IMKTA is a 51.03% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 29.38% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -0.44% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
IMKTA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.54
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.527
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.745
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.376
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.226
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.38
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.705
Beta is -23.43% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.55
Beta is -1.78% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
26.33%
Sustainable growth rate is 31.54% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.234
Alpha is 44.44% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1487% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
IMKTA
Equity cost of capital:
0.068
Equity cost of capital is -0.97% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.77%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.60%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.85%
Overall debt rating:
Upper medium A grade (third highest grade),CO8<=0.0429,"Medium BBB grade (Fourth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.85%
WACC is 26.26% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$283.32
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.6
Annual revenue growth rate is -29.96% below industry average
EPS:
$11.25
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
38.25%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 148.73% higher than the Grocery Stores industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$12.60
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 0.12%
Equity growth rate per share is -101.55% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$31.62
EBITDA per share
$26.56
Valuation Analysis Today of
IMKTA
P/E Ratio:
6.52
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
39.15
P/E ratio is -83.34% lower than main peers & is -67.70% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $227.22
IMKTA is -61.12% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $24.84
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $9.64
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.31
Price to sales ratio is -46.01% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.6
Price to free cash flow: 7.01
Price to free cash flow ratio is -51.86% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
164.37%
Net income growth rate is -57.92% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 1.10%
Dividend yeild: 0.75%
Previous Dividend: $0.17
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.17
Previous Dividend: $0.66
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.17
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/07/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 07/06/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 27/06/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 14/04/2022
Previous dividend record date: 04/07/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 28/03/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-06--$0.17
2021-10-06--$0.17
2021-04-07--$0.17
2022-01-05--$0.17
2021-07-07--$0.17
2021-01-06--$0.17
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
57.32%
Net debt to equity ratio:
57.16%
Debt to assets ratio:
28.90%
Net debt to assets ratio:
28.82%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -58.42% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
22.34
Interest coverage ratio is 138.75% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
2.96%
Annual debt growth is 39% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.57%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.192
Statistical significance of correlation:
IMKTA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.311
Stock price is -38.20% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.311
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.021
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.03
Kurtosis
5.372
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.315
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
IMKTA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
102%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
7.15%
Operating profit margin is 292.88% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
102%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.83%
Effective tax rate is 25.42% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
26.58%
Return on equity (ROE) is 36.73% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
13.40%
Return on assets (ROA) is 190.41% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
2.11
Current ratio is 66.88% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-3
Cash conversion cycle is -107.14% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 13.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
524.5K
Each employee generates 24% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
49.2K
Each employee generates -45% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
27.1K
Each employee generates 91% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
7.2K
Each employee generates 18% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
139.3K
Each employee generates 18% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
IMKTA
HOUGHTON MIFFLIN HARCOURT COMPANY (XNAS:HMHC)
HAILIANG EDUCATION GROUP INC. (XNAS:HLG)
THE CHEFS' WAREHOUSE, INC. (XNAS:CHEF)
APPHARVEST, INC. (XNAS:APPH)
MGP INGREDIENTS, INC. (XNAS:MGPI)
CALAVO GROWERS, INC. (XNAS:CVGW)
MISSION PRODUCE, INC. (XNAS:AVO)
Tattooed Chef, Inc. (XNAS:TTCF)
JOHN B. SANFILIPPO & SON, INC. (XNAS:JBSS)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
5.38B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
4.00B
1.38B
-
1.00B
1.00B
-
-
1.00B
-
22.58M
116.16M
504.45M
384.79M
278.55M
365.71M
87.16M
278.55M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
29.30M
Differed Income Tax :
- 1102.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 1000.68K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.59M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
94.98M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 110007.11K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/25/21
2022
Q1
27.64M
115.01M
142.65M
103.03M
389.47M
14.03M
649.19M
1.40B
-
-
-
-
32.60M
1.43B
-
2.08B
204.20M
25.90M
27.98M
-
77.75M
307.85M
600.62M
49.61M
722.35M
-
1.03B
949.72K
1.05B
- 2015.3K
-
December 25, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
5.01B
1.05B
2.08B
-
626.52M
598.9M
-
- 21118.17K
- 131125.27K
- 3459.14K
-
-
- 3063.23K
-
- 6522.37K
-
- 42669.13K
27.64M
70.31M
94.98M
- 21333.46K
73.65M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
IMKTA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$92.02
$95.36
$98.82
$102.41
$106.12